Betting a Big-Ticket Horse to Fulfill Potential in Pegasus Stakes

Gambling
Monmouth Park, Haskell Preview Day, Pegasus Stakes, Valentinian, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR
The competitors race in the stretch after the start of a stakes race in 2024 at Monmouth Park, which on Saturday hosts its Haskell Preview Day with five stakes races. (Eclipse Sportswire)

A $1.5 million price tag and a pedigree to match. Hall of Fame trainer and jockey. Owners that have reached the pinnacle of the sport, one of which is currently campaigning the reigning Preakness Stakes winner. Add it all up, and you’ve got a serious racehorse – right?

Three-year-old colt Valentinian is entered in Saturday’s NYRA Bets Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park, the New Jersey racetrack’s local prep for its signature race on July 19, the NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes. He’ll be making his fourth career start for owners Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners (who co-own Preakness winner Journalism) and Stonestreet Stables, under the expert guidance of Todd Pletcher. The Pegasus drew a competitive eight-horse field of horses that weren’t quite qualified and/or ready to run in any of the Triple Crown races but have evident talent and might be capable of taking a step forward. #4 Valentinian leads this bunch and he’s my pick to win the Pegasus.

Monmouth Park, Haskell Preview Day, Pegasus Stakes, Valentinian, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR
Valentinian, inside, gallops with accomplished stablemate Mindframe. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners bought Valentinian as a yearling for $1.5 million at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling sale, and breeder Stonestreet Stables retained an interest. Why so expensive? Because he’s a son of leading sire Into Mischief and by a dam (mother) named Rachel’s Valentina who won a Grade 1 stakes and also finished second in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Valentinian’s second dam (maternal grandmother) is none other than Hall of Famer and 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, who was campaigned for most of her racing career by Stonestreet. Simply put, Valentinian was bred to be a star.

Through three races, Valentinian hasn’t lived up to that marquee billing yet, but he’s shown enough progress to get my endorsement. He won his career debut on March 1 and then ran third and fourth in allowance-optional claiming races in April and May, all at the same 1 1/16 mile-distance he’ll try Saturday in the Pegasus. In his most recent fourth-place outing, he ran on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs early on the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve undercard and made up some late ground while never threatening the top horses. The winner of that race, Goal Oriented, came back to finish fourth in the Preakness Stakes after getting bumped by Journalism in midstretch, and the runner-up, Hypnus, returned to win a quality allowance race at Churchill two weeks ago.

If Valentinian gets a fast track Saturday, he should be primed to improve and secure his first stakes win. Monmouth’s dirt track favors speed, and Valentinian is a stalker, but in this race he should have a solid pace to close into as #3 Garamond (who could be the post-time favorite), #5 Bracket Buster, and #6 Wildncrazynight all prefer to step on the gas early.

Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez has been aboard Valentinian in his prior two starts and retains the mount Saturday. I expect him to settle his mount in fourth or fifth midway through the Pegasus and then make a bid for the lead on the far turn. If this regally bred colt does put it all together, I’ll cash a win bet and hopefully an exacta, and then look forward to seeing him next month in the Haskell.

With a $30 budget, my bets are:

$15 win on #4 Valentinian

What to say at the betting window: Monmouth Park, Race 8, $10 win on #4

$5 exacta, #4 Valentinian with #3 Garamond, #5 Bracket Buster, and #8 National Law ($15)

What to say at the betting window: Monmouth Park, Race 8, $5 exacta, #4 with #1, #3, and #8


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