The Longines Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve headline two of the best horse racing betting days of the year. In total, there are 27 races across Friday and Saturday at Churchill Downs. Here, we’ll give you some prices you’ll want to consider. For purposes of this exercise, we only included horses with morning-line odds set at 6-1 or higher.

Friday, May 2

Race #11, Longines Kentucky Oaks, 5:51 p.m. ET

Ashland Stakes runner-up Take Charge Milady (Coady Media)

#10 Take Charge Milady (12-1): The Friday feature seems jam-packed with early speed. For that reason, I want a closer, and I was impressed with Take Charge Milady’s last-out effort in the Grade 1 Central Bank Ashland Stakes. She was a fast-closing second despite a relative lack of early speed to run down, and I think she’ll have a much more favorable race shape here.

This, of course, assumes she runs. As of this writing, Take Charge Milady’s connections are trying to help her get over a foot abscess. However, if she’s healthy enough to give it a go, I think she’s got a much bigger shot than the odds board might indicate.

Race #13, Maiden Special Weight race, 7:02 p.m. ET

#8 Tetiaroa (8-1): There are two races after the Oaks, and one of them houses a first-time starter I’m very excited to play. That’s Tetiaroa, who makes her debut for Rigney Racing and Phil Bauer.

A daughter of Vekoma, Tetiaroa comes in off of back-to-back bullet workouts on this surface, and it sure looks like she’s sitting on a big one in her unveiling. There are enough strong works in her tab to indicate those bullets weren’t flukes, and honestly, I’m not overly sold on the quality of the rest of this group. Her 8-1 morning line price hits me as a significant overlay, and I hope we get it.

Saturday, May 3

Race #6, Pat Day Mile Presented by SAP, 1:53 p.m. ET

Gate to Wire winning Swale Stakes. (Coglianese Photos)

#5 Gate to Wire (6-1): You may notice a theme by now. I’m gravitating to closers in races where the early pace will likely be very fast. That’s the case here, too. While I respect horses like Madaket Road, Gaming, and Built, I think the value lies elsewhere.

Gate to Wire capitalized on a similar situation in winning the Swale Stakes two starts back at Gulfstream Park. He romped by five lengths that day before trying the Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes, which simply seemed to be too far for him. He cuts back to his desired one-turn distance here, Flavien Prat sees fit to ride, and the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be.

Race #9, American Turf Stakes Presented by Ford, 4:06 p.m. ET

#4 Mi Bago (10-1): I usually don’t love horses that dominate on turf at Gulfstream shipping elsewhere. That’s a very particular surface that isn’t usually replicated at Kentucky tracks, whose turf courses are usually less on the firm side and more lush by nature.

However, the more I look at this race, the more I think Mi Bago is the clear threat to go wire-to-wire. His last-out effort in the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes Presented by Keeneland Select at Keeneland wasn’t good, but I think that may have been a bounce off of a career-best romp in the Colonel Liam Stakes back in March. In the earlier race, he carved out fractions of :22.55, :45.53, and 1:08.84 before stopping the timer in 1:32.51. If that version of Mi Bago shows up here, he could get awfully comfortable up front at a price.

Race #12, Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, 6:57 p.m. ET

Wood Memorial Stakes runner-up Grande. (Coady Media)

#10 Grande (20-1): In the interest of full disclosure, I think #8 Journalism and #18 Sovereignty are both legitimate. However, if you’re looking for a price in the main event, I think Grande has several factors that make him a player.

Todd Pletcher has said he wants a ton of distance, and he ran like it when he was a one-paced, grinding second in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino. He doesn’t have an explosive turn of foot, but unlike many others, I feel reasonably confident that the distance won’t be what gets him beat. Additionally, the Derby will be just his fourth career start, and he could very well have another step forward in him given that relative inexperience.

Grande draws well and could sit an ideal trip three or so lengths off the lead early. This would put him in a prime position to launch a bit around the far turn. I’m not sure he’s good enough to hold on, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he hit the board at a price for these powerhouse connections.