Saturday’s Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets offers a highly anticipated rematch of the top three finishers from last month’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve in Sovereignty, Journalism (the subsequent Preakness Stakes winner), and Baeza. The 157^th Belmont will be held at historic Saratoga Race Course in upstate New York for the second year in a row while Belmont Park continues with reconstruction. It will be televised nationwide on FOX with a post time of 7:04 p.m. ET.

Read on for Belmont Stakes trifecta betting strategies from the team at America’s Best Racing:

Dan Tordjman:

At this stage of the Triple Crown, it feels like we’ve seen enough to know with some degree of certainty that Journalism and Sovereignty are at the top of the class, followed not far behind by Baeza. Is it likely that all three will run their best race, all on the same day, this Saturday and finish 1-2-3? Probably not. Journalism comes off of short rest after two maximum-effort runs in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Sovereignty and Baeza have had five weeks off since the Derby, where they both ran new career-best races (often followed by some degree of regression).

That said, and given my proclivity for trying to pick a longshot or value horse, I’m going to take a swing with the improving Hill Road. I don’t see any scenario in which the Peter Pan Stakes winner doesn’t finish in the top three. So, here are my bets:

$4 Trifecta Box: #1 Hill Road, #6 Baeza, #7 Journalism ($24)

$2 Trifecta Key: #1 Hill Road with #2 Sovereignty, #3 Rodriguez, #6 Baeza, and #7 Journalism, with #2 Sovereignty, #3 Rodriguez, #6 Baeza, and #7 Journalism ($24 total)

$1 Trifecta Key Box: (#1 Hill Road to finish in any of the top three spots) #1 Hill Road with #2 Sovereignty, #3 Rodriguez, #6 Baeza, and #7 Journalism ($36 total)

Patrick Reed:

Journalism trains at Saratoga. (Eclipse Sportswire)

For me, handicapping the Belmont Stakes comes down to one opinion: was the Kentucky Derby finish where Sovereignty defeated Journalism by 1 ½ lengths a true indication of their talent level or was it a result of race conditions and flow? Sovereignty had a better trip than his rival in the Derby as jockey Junior Alvarado was able to keep his colt generally free from trouble and use Journalism as his target to engage and then outfinish in the slop at Churchill Downs. Journalism had a bit more difficulty getting into gear early in the race, but settled in nicely midway through and in my opinion might have moved a bit too soon to wrest the lead in early stretch. Of course, Journalism then overcame a near-disastrous trip to win the Preakness.

Ultimately, I can’t look past the fact that trainer Michael McCarthy is showing a high level of confidence in bringing Journalism back after two weeks and a hard-fought victory in order to compete against a colt that’s already defeated him and also has three extra weeks of rest. My main concern can probably be discerned from the sentences above and comes down to jockey decision-making during the race, especially since this is the first week Journalism’s regular rider Umberto Rispoli will have mounts at Saratoga. But I think Journalism is that good – in the running for the best 3-year-old of this decade so far – and based on that I’ll put him atop a $5 trifecta with Sovereignty, Baeza, and late-running Hill Road underneath. I’ll also make another $5 trifecta with Journalism and Sovereignty finishing 1-2 and either one of the two others third for a total $40 investment.

$5 Trifecta Key: #7 Journalism with #1 Hill Road, #2 Sovereignty, and #6 Baeza, with #1 Hill Road, #2 Sovereignty, and #6 Baeza ($30)

$5 Trifecta Key: #7 Journalism with #2 Sovereignty with #1 Hill Road and #6 Baeza ($10)

Mike Curry:

Although it isn’t crystal clear from the speed figures, I believe the top three from the Kentucky Derby are head and shoulders above the rest of the 3-year-old division. I think my main bet in this race will be to play a big exacta with Preakness winner Journalism over Derby third-place finisher Baeza and then reverse it for a little less. So for $60, I might bet a $35 exacta with Journalism over Baeza and a $25 exacta with Baeza over Journalism.

Rain in the forecast definitely moves up Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty, in my opinion, and I would adjust on the fly to account for a muddy or sloppy track. In terms of the trifecta, I think the race shape should benefit Baeza and Journalism, who both have more tactical speed than Sovereignty, and will bank on one of the two winning the race. I’ll use Sovereignty in second and third.

$10 Trifecta Part Wheel: #6 Baeza, #7 Journalism with #2 Sovereignty with #6 Baeza, #7 Journalism ($20)

$10 Trifecta Part Wheel: #6 Baeza, #7 Journalism with #6 Baeza, #7 Journalism with #2 Sovereignty ($20)

Noel Michaels:

Rodriguez breezes at the Spa. (Eclipse Sportswire)

A couple weeks ago I wrote an article for ABR detailing which running styles excel at Saratoga at 1 ¼ miles, and it was bad news for late runners like Hill Road, Heart of Honor, and perhaps even more consequentially Sovereignty. Those late moves just don’t work at Saratoga. The Spa’s winning profile at this distance is speed from the inside three posts, so I’m predicting a Belmont Stakes upset with the horse that perfectly fits the track trends, Rodriguez. The Wood Memorial Presented by NYRA Bets winner trained by Bob Baffert can get to the front and go all the way under jockey Mike Smith.

I believe most horses’ Belmont Stakes chances are reduced if the horse has already been through the rigors of the first two legs of the Triple Crown, which is why I can’t pick Journalism to win. I am such a fan of his talent, however, and I believe he will ultimately prove himself to be the best of this year’s 3-year-olds, so I can’t keep him out of my trifectas. The sky is the limit for Baeza, who might be on the precipice of big things based on his second in the Santa Anita Derby and his third in the Kentucky Derby. I would not be surprised if the Belmont Stakes was his breakthrough race. He’ll be stalking the pace up close meaning he has the right running style, too. So, here are my bets: 

$5 Trifecta Box: #3 Rodriguez, #6 Baeza, and #7 Journalism ($30)

$2 Trifecta Key: #3 Rodriguez with #2 Sovereignty, #6 Baeza, and #7 Journalism, with #2 Sovereignty, #6 Baeza, and #7 Journalism ($12)