The $2 million Grade 1 NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies is a race that churns out champions. Year after year, almost without exception, the winner goes on to earn champion 2-year-old filly honors at the Eclipse Awards.

In many years, picking the Juvenile Fillies winner is as easy as betting the favorite – they win at a high rate. But sometimes predictability goes out the window and longshots surprise at huge odds, triggering massive payoffs.

Which type of outcome will we see in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on Nov. 1 at Del Mar? History can help us answer that question. By reviewing the past results of the Juvenile Fillies, nine recurring trends become evident that we can use to identify the most likely winner:

Speed horses have an advantage

Horses with early speed are dominant in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Eleven of the last 15 winners (73%) were racing in first, second, or third place after the opening half-mile, including five who were positioned on the lead.

It’s also worth noting that Ria Antonio, who rallied from sixth place in 2013, only won the Juvenile Fillies via the disqualification of front-running She’s a Tiger, who set the fastest Juvenile Fillies pace fractions of the last 15 years.

Favor the favorite

Favorites have won the Juvenile Fillies at an astonishing rate. To be specific, they’ve won 19 out of 40 editions, or 47.5%. That’s much higher than the usual winning percentage for favorites, so bettors can feel good about backing the top choice in the Juvenile Fillies.

Avoid betting horses between 7.50-1 and 17.20-1

It’s not unheard of for major longshots to upset the Juvenile Fillies. We’ve seen eight winners go off at odds of 17.30-1 or higher, including (since 2013) Caledonia Road, Champagne Room, Take Charge Brandi, and Ria Antonia. The horses that almost never win the Juvenile Fillies, however, are midrange longshots going off at odds between 7.50-1 and 17.20-1. There’s only been one winner in this odds range in the history of the race and that was back in 2001 when Tempera struck at odds of 11.90-1. When betting the Juvenile Fillies, you want to back a short-priced contender (preferably the favorite) or a major longshot, but nothing in between.

Bet fillies who have raced one mile or farther

Sprinters who are unproven running one mile or farther rarely win the Juvenile Fillies. It has only happened once in the last 15 years, in 2012, when eventual four-time champion Beholder won the Juvenile Fillies in her first start running farther than seven furlongs. It’s wise to bet fillies who have run in at least one race over one mile or further.

Joel Rosario won the 2021 Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Jockeys Joel Rosario and Mike Smith often prevail

Two jockeys that have ridden particularly well in recent editions of the Juvenile Fillies are Joel Rosario and Mike Smith. Both have ridden 13 times in the Juvenile Fillies and both have won three times.

Rosario’s success has come in the last half-dozen years, winning in 2018, 2020, and 2021. Smith’s success goes a bit further back with wins in 2008, 2015, and 2017. Four of Smith’s last five mounts have finished in the top three.

Grade 1 alums have an edge

It’s rare for a filly without experience competing at the Grade 1 level to win the Juvenile Fillies. The numbers don’t lie because 21 of the last 23 Juvenile Fillies winners had previously competed in a Grade 1 race. The two fillies who defied this trend, Awesome Feather and Dreaming of Anna, were undefeated winners of multiple non-Grade 1 stakes.

The takeaway? Bet fillies with Grade 1 experience. And if you’re going to bet against this trend, be sure you’re backing an undefeated stakes winner with potential to shine while stepping up in class.

The Frizette is the key prep race

Related to the statistic above, the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes in New York has been a pivotal steppingstone to success in the Juvenile Fillies, producing seven of the last 15 winners.

The Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes and Grade 1 FanDuel Racing Del Mar Debutante are other productive preps, producing four winners and three winners of the Juvenile Fillies the last 15 years.

Outside post positions are an advantage

Don’t worry about betting fillies drawn in outside post positions because racing outside and in the clear is often a path to victory in the Juvenile Fillies with nine of the last 15 winners breaking from post six or wider. During the same timeframe, only three fillies breaking from post one have managed to record top-three finishes.

Don’t overestimate experience over the host track

The Breeders’ Cup moves around the country to a different track each year, so it’s natural to assume fillies with experience over the host track have an advantage in any given year. This actually has not been the case recently as 12 of the last 15 Juvenile Fillies winners were making their first start at the host track.

Scottish Lassie (Jason Moran/Eclipse Sportswire)

Conclusions

History paints a vivid picture of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Pending the post position draw, one filly stands out as the most likely winner: Scottish Lassie.

Scottish Lassie has shown pace-tracking tactical speed in both of her starts. After finishing third in her debut sprinting at Saratoga, she improved dramatically when stepping up in class for the one-mile Grade 1 Frizette Stakes, dominating her rivals by nine lengths.

Her impressive Frizette victory may establish Scottish Lassie as the Juvenile Fillies favorite. In any case, she’ll be a short price in the betting, much lower than 7.50-1. She fits the majority of our historical trends and should be mighty tough to beat even while competing at Del Mar for the first time.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the race!