This year’s move of the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets to Saratoga Race Course will pose more than a few handicapping challenges for horseplayers, who are used to analyzing the race at its home track at Belmont Park and not at Saratoga. The change in venue changes the entire complexion of the race, and handicappers should make themselves aware of the differences between this year’s Belmont Stakes as opposed to prior runnings.

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The venue is not the only change being made to the Belmont Stakes in 2024. The distance of the race has also been changed. The third jewel of the Triple Crown will be run this year at 1 ¼ miles instead of at its traditional distance of 1 ½ miles. This is another interesting wrinkle handicappers will need to consider when the field goes to the post on Saturday, June 8 for “the “test of the champion.”

Belmont Park’s 1 ½-mile layout makes it unique among American racetracks and makes it the perfect venue to host a 1 ½-mile classic. Saratoga, on the other hand, is a more traditional 1 1/8-mile track layout where a 1 ½-mile starting gate would be positioned on the grandstand turn, and therefore is not viable. Instead, Saratoga’s ideal Belmont Stakes distance is at 1 ¼ miles. This also is the distance of Saratoga’s most important race, the Travers Stakes. The 1 ¼-mile start at Saratoga happens right in front of the grandstand in the middle of the home stretch, optimizing the start for fans and giving the horses a fair run-up into the first (clubhouse) turn.

Handicappers can look for clues to help solve this year’s Belmont Stakes puzzle by taking a closer look into recent 1 ¼-mile results at Saratoga. Here you can find tips and trends relevant to this year’s race, particularly based on running styles and post positions. If we can determine what types of horses typically get the best trips at 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga, it will potentially go a long way to helping find this year’s Belmont Stakes winner. (Next year’s Belmont Stakes will also be held at Saratoga and at a mile and a quarter, while the home track continues with a massive reconstruction project.)

So far this decade since 2020, there have been a total of 24 races run at the Belmont Stakes distance of 1 ¼ miles run at Saratoga. What are the preferred running styles and post position at this particular distance based on those statistics? Let’s find out.

Best Saratoga Running Styles at 1 ¼ Miles

In terms of running styles, the 1 ¼-mile advantage at Saratoga goes to horses that press or stalk the pace, while the strong disadvantage goes to the closers.

In the 24 races run at the distance since 2020, 13 have been won by pressers/stalkers racing between one and four lengths off the early pace at the first call, accounting for 54% of the wins. Speed horses racing on the lead or within a length of the pace won 9 of the 24 races (38%). Closers coming from more than four lengths off the pace have been a terrible bet at 1 ¼ miles. They won just two of the 24 races, accounting for just 8% of the wins.

Best Post Positions

When it comes to post positions, the inside posts 1-3 are the place to be. Horses from the three inside posts won 13 of the 24 races at 1 ¼ miles accounting for wins in 54% of the races. Horses from middle posts 4-6 won seven of the races, accounting for 29%. The average field size at the distance has been only 6.75 runners per race, meaning there are usually few, if any, horses drawn in outside posts 7 and outward. Considering this, the outside posts have actually done quite well at 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga by accounting for four wins in the 24 races at 1 ¼ miles, despite making up just a small percentage of the starters in those races. In summary, horses from inside posts and outside posts have done well enough to outperform horses from middle posts 4-6 at this distance at Saratoga.

Profile of a Saratoga Winner at the Distance

Rounding the first turn in the 2022 Travers. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Now let’s combine the running style stats with the post position stats and come up with the most common profile of a 1 ¼-mile winner at Saratoga.

From the group of the 24 most recent 1 ¼-mile winners at Saratoga, seven winners were speed horses breaking from posts 1-3. Only one speed horse was able to win from the middle posts and only one speed horse won from the outside. Therefore, if you want to bet a front-runner in this year’s Belmont Stakes it seems like a good bet only if the horse had drawn one of the three inside posts. Stalkers seems equally effective from any post position. Interestingly, the only two horses to win at this distance since 2020 with a closing running style both won from outside posts 7 and wider. Closers drawn in posts 1-6 failed to win a single 1 ¼-mile race.

Looking for Clues in the Travers Stakes

The closest comparable Saratoga race to the Belmont Stakes that we have to draw information from is the Travers, another important stakes race for 3-year-olds at the same distance. Last year’s Travers winner Arcangelo won after stalking 2 ½ lengths off the early pace. Epicenter, the 2022 Travers winner, stalked in midpack but was only two lengths off the pace. Essential Quality in 2021 pressed the pace just 1 ½ lengths behind the leader, and Tiz the Law sat one length off the lead when he won in 2020. The last closing winner of the Travers was Code of Honor, who came from 5 ¾ lengths off the pace to win in 2019. Catholic Boy pressed the pace within a half a length of the leader in 2018. The last wire-to-wire winner of the Travers was West Coast in 2017.

Conclusions

We will wait for the June 3 Belmont Stakes post-position draw to form our final opinions, but ideally what you are looking for at this distance at Saratoga is a horse with some tactical speed who can race on or somewhat close to the pace. If you want to bet a front-runner, it is beneficial if that horse is drawn in one of the three inside posts. Closers are not recommended, but if you must bet one, make sure that horse is drawn outside.

Enjoy what will be a unique and exciting running of the Belmont Stakes. Best of luck!