Everyone has their own preference, but in my view the Breeders’ Cup Mile is essentially the perfect horse race.

I’ve always been partial to betting turf races and one mile on the grass is a terrific test of both speed and stamina. Add in the fact that the $2 million FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF draws elite international turf milers as well as top North American runners and the probability for an upset – five $50 winners in this race in the last 25 years – and it’s easy to see why the race is a highlight each year at the World Championships. Oh yeah, 17 of the last 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile have been decided by a length or less and only two were decided by two lengths or more.

Simply put, the Breeders’ Cup Mile typically is a great handicapping puzzle and the race itself rarely fails to live up to the hype.

For fans like me who love this race, for dedicated handicappers planning to bet all 14 World Championships races, and casual fans planning to watch and maybe wager a few bucks on it, there are significant trends to know when analyzing the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Let’s take a closer look at the data from 1999 through 2023 and identify as many historical nuggets as possible to help pick the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Nov. 2 at Del Mar.

Steer clear of speed

Master of The Seas (#14) in 2023. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Over the last 25 years, not a single Breeders’ Cup Mile winner was in first after the opening quarter-mile or the first half-mile in the race. In fact, only two of the 25 were first in early stretch (approximately an eighth of a mile to run). There were 10 runners in second place in early stretch, but pacesetters nonetheless are up against history in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Eight of the 25 winners since 1999 were dedicated one-run closers and another five profiled as closer/stalker types. The lone horse with a real inclination to press for the lead was World Approval, who was 4-for-5 entering the race in 2017 and won by 1 ¼ lengths as the favorite.

Ten of the last 25 winners were 10^th or worse after the first quarter-mile and 24 winners were third or worse after a half-mile.

Count on class

Sixteen of the 25 Breeders’ Cup Mile winners from 1999 to 2023 were established Grade/Group 1 winners and 15 of the last 17 had at least one win at that top level. Twenty-four of the 25 had won at the Grade/Group 2 level or higher with 73.20-1 longshot Order of Australia in 2020 at Keeneland the lone exception.

Look beyond last-out winners

For many Breeders’ Cup races, recent form is unequivocally the most important criteria in determining the winner. For the Mile, as mentioned above, established back class is more important than recent form.

Only seven of the last 20 Breeders’ Cup Mile winners prevailed in their final prep race and only 12 of the 25 winners from 1999 to 2023 entered the race off of a win. Nine others entered off top-three finishes, including six who were beaten by a length or less, but four of the 25 were unplaced in their final prep race and three winners were seventh or worse in their most recent race.

Be a little more forgiving of a disappointing prep race when evaluating the Mile. 

True milers race

The average distance raced by Breeders’ Cup Mile winners from 1999 to 2023 in the calendar year leading up to the World Championships is 8.25 furlongs, between one mile and 1 1/16 miles. The median is exactly the same.

Only one winner in the last 25 years raced an average distance longer than 8.8 furlongs and that was 73.2-1 longshot winner Order of Australia in 2020, also the lone horse without at least a Grade or Group 2 win.

Likewise, only one winner raced an average of less than 7.5 furlongs over the last 25 years, so look for true milers and not turf sprinters stretching out to a mile or longer-distance grass horses cutting back to a mile.

International event

The great Goldikova in 2009. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Ten of the last 25 winners prepped for the Breeders’ Cup Mile in Europe and another three made their final pre-Breeders’ Cup start in Canada. Five of the last six winners were based in Europe.

Seven Mile winners made their final prep in Kentucky – five in the Coolmore Turf Mile and two in the First Lady Stakes, both at Keeneland. The most recent winner of this race to come out of a New York prep race was Artie Schiller in 2005. Likewise, the last Mile winner to come out of a California prep race was Singletary in 2004, although California preps produced four Breeders’ Cup Mile winners in a six-year span from 1999 to 2004.

Of the seven 3-year-old winners over the last 25 editions, only War Chant in 2000 was not based in Europe, so give preference to international 3-year-olds over those based in the U.S.

Uncovering  longshots

I would not consider the Breeders’ Cup Mile to be a true longshots’ race despite the average winning payoff of 12.5-1 over the last 25 years. That was skewed by $148.40 winner Order of Australia in 2020. The media winning odds of 5.1-1 are far more representative of a race in which 11 of the last 25 winners were 3.6-1 odds – slightly more than 7-2 – or less.

There have been, however, seven double-digit winners since 1999, including five that paid $50 or more for a $2 win bet.

Six of the seven entered the race off a defeat with only 26-1 European 4-year-old Domedriver entering the 2002 Mile off of a Group 2 win in France. Order of Australia was the lone member of this group with nary a Grade/Group 2 win on his résumé, having only won at the allowance level for elite European trainer Aidan O’Brien.

Singletary (16.5-1 odds, 2004), Miesque’s Approval (24.3-1, 2006), Court Vision (64.8-1, 2011), and Tourist (12.4-1, 2016) were U.S.-based runners who preferred to race off the pace and entered the Breeders’ Cup Mile off third-, fourth-, seventh-, and third-place finishes, respectively. The first two were Grade 2 winners and Court Vision and Tourist were Grade 1 winners.

French invader Domedriver profiled as a deep closer with an electric turn of foot and Karakontie (30-1, 2014) was a French classic winner at one mile who had fallen off form while trying to stretch out in distance.

Four of the seven were dedicated closers with the other three fitting into a closer/stalker or stalker profile, and all were at least 2 ½ lengths back after the opening half-mile.

These winners serve as a reminder to give a long look at all of the international runners, including the 3-year-olds, and at U.S.-based runners with back class coming out of disappointing races.

The 2024 candidates

Carl Spackler (Eclipse Sportswire)

Unlike the first two races in this historical series – the FanDuel Juvenile Presented by TAA and the Longines Classic – the field for the Breeders’ Cup Mile is much more in flux. Without a firm grasp of which runners will be competing, let’s look at a few leading contenders and a couple of potential upset candidates.

The top domestic contender is Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes winner Carl Spackler. He won that race in front-running fashion but has wins from off the pace at both the Grade 1 and Grade 2 level. The 4-year-old by Lope de Vega reminds me a bit of World Approval, a miler getting very good at the perfect time, but I worry he might be too close to the pace and have little left in deep stretch to hold off a quality group of closers. He might be a better bet to fill out the exacta or trifecta and his 6-1 morning-line odds offer additional appeal.

California-based Grade 1 winner Johannes is 4-for-4 this year with a dominant win on the Del Mar turf in July in the Eddie Read Stakes. The stalker/closer is also 4-for-4 at this one-mile distance, but prepping in California has not been fruitful for this race in the last 25 years.

An interesting upset candidate might be Rogers Woodbine Mile Stakes winner Win for the Money (30-1 morning-line odds) if he is overlooked coming off his first graded stakes win for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse.

More Than Looks closed with a powerful rush from far back in the Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes to finish second to Carl Spackler, but he has not won a race above Grade 3. I prefer More Than Looks as an exacta or trifecta filler at 20-1 on the morning line than as a win candidate. One U.S.-based horse that prefers to race on or near the lead that I would probably avoid in the Breeders’ Cup Mile is Mint Millions Stakes winner Goliad.

Notable Speech (Eclipse Sportswire)

The international contingent could be quite strong this year. Charles Appleby has been a force in the U.S. in recent years — he has won the last three editions of this race and sports a sparkling record of 10 wins with 20 total starters at the Breeders’ Cup — so his Group 1-winning miler Notable Speech much be respected. Three-year-old filly Porta Fortuna has won three straight Group 1 races at a mile, defeating older females in the last two. Six fillies have won the Mile in the last 25 years and Six Perfections in 2003 and Goldikova in 2008 shipped over from Europe to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile as 3-year-old fillies. Both were similar mid-pack type runners.

Ramatuelle, by Justify, also is a European 3-year-old filly who won a seven-furlong Group 1 race in France in October and finished third by a neck in the QIPCO One Thousand Guineas earlier this year. Porta Fortuna has gotten the better of her on a couple of occasions, but she is a classy filly.

Ten Happy Rose is a Japanese Group 1 winner at a mile and might be a bit overlooked after prepping for this race with a seventh-place finish in a turf sprint in her first race in four months. Another possible contender from Japan is Geoglyph, a Group 1 winner at 3 who has not won a race since 2022 but showed some signs of life in his most recent start. He should be a massive price.

Aidan O’Brien’s Diego Velazquez enters off a Group 2 win at a mile, but three of his last four starts have come at distances between 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/2 miles. I prefer other international runners unless I was getting significant value on the toteboard.