
A Day in the Life of a Kentucky Derby Horse
Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.
Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
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Six Beginner Betting Tools
Saturday, Jan. 20 will be a big day of racing and wagering at Fair Grounds with the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes and the Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes Presented by Relyne GI by Hagyard headlining a 13-race card containing a total of six stakes races. While both the Lecomte and the Louisiana Stakes are worthy headline events, some of the other stakes on the card may be even better for handicappers who will be focusing on the Fair Grounds this weekend. Let’s take a closer look at two of those undercard stakes races for this weekend’s winners, including the $150,000 Silverbulletday Stakes Presented by Fasig-Tipton which goes as race 10, and the $100,000 Colonel E.R. Bradley Stakes, which goes as race 11. If you can catch the winners of those two races you will be halfway home in the late Pick 4 at Fair Grounds and will have plenty of money on your voucher to take a good shot in the later races. Best of luck, and enjoy Saturday racing at Fair Grounds.
Saturday, Jan. 20
Fair Grounds, Race 10, $150,000 Silverbulletday Stakes Presented by Fasig-Tipton, post time 5:30 p.m. ET
The Silverbulletday Stakes had drawn an eight-horse field of 3-year-old fillies hoping to put themselves squarely on the road to the 2024 Longines Kentucky Oaks, and this 1 mile and 70-yard test on the main track will go a long way to potentially setting the winner off on that path. The horse to beat is #6 West Omaha trained by Brad Cox, who graduated two starts ago in a key maiden race at Churchill Downs and exits a solid runner-up finish behind Alpine Princess at this course and distance in the $97,000 Untapable Stakes Dec. 23. West Omaha has definitely done enough to be on your exacta and pick 4 tickets. If you are betting to win, however, others in the field might be more enticing at better odds. There is an undefeated filly in the field, #3 Miss Code West, whose odds are a value-packed 9-2 on the morning line. Her first three wins were earned against Oklahoma-bred company at Remington Park including two state-bred stakes wins, but she has already stepped out of state-bred competition successfully with her six-length win last time out in the $75,000 Trapeze Stakes, which brought her record to 2-for-2 in two-turn races. From a pace perspective, Miss Code West has shown the ability to go to the lead and never look back while also showing that she can rate and doesn’t need the lead to win. Her speed figure elevated last time out into the range of what it will take to win this race, and if the track is wet for the Silverbulletday, she has already won on a muddy track. There is plenty of pace entered in this race, and if you are considering a late-running threat to round out trifectas, that filly looks like #8 Sistina Chapel, who exits a third-place finish in the Untapable.
The Play: Bet to win on #3 Miss Code West (9-2) and box her in the exacta with #6 West Omaha (2-1). Trifecta players can add #8 Sistina Chapel (7-2) into a three-horse box with Miss Code West and West Omaha, or use her behind the other two in the third slot.
Fair Grounds, Race 11, $100,000 Colonel E.R. Bradley Stakes, post time 6 p.m. ET
Saturday’s turf feature at Fair Grounds is the Colonel E.R. Bradley Stakes for older horses going 1 1/16 miles on the grass. The Colonel Bradley drew an original nine-horse field but scratches have taken their toll. One of those scatches was #3 Brigadier General, who figured to be the only pace contender keeping #2 Strong Quality from getting an easy lead. Strong Quality has blazing early speed, strong speed figures, and could shake loose up front. The live closer in the field is #9 Beatbox, who can also show tactical speed on occasion. He comes in off back-to-back second-place finishes including a runner-up effort behind a better horse in last month’s Buddy Diliberto Memorial Stakes at Fair Grounds.
The Play: Bet #2 Strong Quality (3-1) to win and box him in the exacta with #9 Beatbox (5-2).