Noel’s Weekend Winners: Live Longshot to Close Out the Late Daily Double at Oaklawn

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Oaklawn Park Nullarbor King’s Ovation Moquett Arrieta King Russell Hern Steve Asmussen Megan’s Honor Mockingbird Stakes fillies horse racing handicapping betting horseplayers Weekend Winners Edistrudis Sharp Tune Divine Gal
Railbirds from multiple generations secure a good spot to watch the action at Oaklawn Park. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

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Six Beginner Betting Tools

  1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
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  4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
  5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
  6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

The Oaklawn Park meet is in full swing, and this Saturday brings us an interesting 10-race card from Hot Springs, Ark., that should be tempting for horseplayers from start to finish. For this weekend’s analysis, let’s take a look at Saturday’s late daily double from Oaklawn, which starts off with a $150,000 stakes race for newly minted 3-year-old fillies, and finishes with a rich allowance race in the nightcap that is sure to present a challenging puzzle for handicappers. Go home a winner with these picks for the late double, and best of luck at Oaklawn this Saturday.

Saturday, Jan. 13

Oaklawn Park, Race 9, $150,000 Mockingbird Stakes, post time 5:22 p.m. ET

weekend Television schedule

Friday, Jan. 12: 2:30-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, Jan. 13: 2:30-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, Jan. 14: 2:30-5:30 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday’s featured Mockingbird Stakes at Oaklawn a field of six 3-year-old fillies that are set to sprint six furlongs, and despite the small size of the field the race is still looking like a good one for bettors since every one of the starters looks live. This is a rare six-furlong Oaklawn sprint where two-thirds of the field are closers, and that gives the horses with some early speed a good chance to go all the way. #3 Edistrudis showed a new dimension of early speed last time out, and it nearly paid off at 42.40-1 here at Oaklawn when she finished second by a neck after a strange z-pattern trip where she dropped back in the field early in the stretch before coming again to nearly catch #5 Divine Gal. She’ll need to turn the tables on Divine Gal in order to win today, but the trip last time was so strange for Edistrudis that she definitely merits another chance. If you are playing late doubles and exactas in this spot, go ahead and use both Edistrudis and Divine Gal, who is now 2-for-2 to begin her career after winning last time despite a tough trip of her own. The other horse in the race with some speed is #2 Sharp Tune. The potential lack of pace in this race and the slight cutback to six furlongs should both work in her favor for trainer Steve Asmussen.

The Play: Bet to win on #3 Edistrudis (4-1) and box her in the exacta with #2 Sharp Tune (3-1), and #5 Divine Gal (9-2). Start out the late daily double by using all three runners in the first leg.

Oaklawn Park, Race 10, $140,000 allowance, post time 5:50 p.m. ET

Oaklawn’s Saturday nightcap is a non-winners $140,000 allowance race that had drawn a full field of 12 going one mile, held around two turns. It’s loaded with contenders and looks like a great betting race to round out the late doubles. Two of the prime contenders in the field, #3 Nullarbor and #7 King’s Ovation, are both speedballs that will be sent to the lead and probably will KO each other up front. That leaves plenty of opportunities to pick amongst the others. The big name in the field is #9 King Russell, who does his best running at Oaklawn and was the longshot second-place finisher in last year’s Arkansas Derby. He, however, is returning from a nine-month layoff and trainer Ron Moquett probably is pointing him for his best effort next time out. With those horses not on our tickets, the horse in the race with the best chance at the best price will be #10 Hern for Steve Asmussen. Hern won here at Oaklawn last time in his return from a five-month layoff and can do even better in his second start off the layoff. As an allowance winner at Sam Houston Race Park in 2023, Hern just barely squeezes into conditions of this race, and he has earned the type of speed figures in past attempts at this one-mile distance that can get him to the winner’s circle Saturday. His stalking running style also fits perfectly in this spot. When you can get an Asmussen contender who looks this good at this meet at good odds, run, don’t walk to the mutuel window to get the bets down. The others to use in exacta and trifecta boxes are #5 Megan’s Honor, who keeps Francisco Arrieta aboard despite a clunker last time and had good out-of-town form in the fall and solid efforts here at Oaklawn last season, and #6 Can’t Hush This, who has been knocking on the door at this allowance level in Kentucky and at Oaklawn in his recent starts.

The Play:  Bet #10 Hern (12-1) to win and use him as your single in the back end of the daily doubles you started in race 9. Box Hern in the exacta and trifecta with #5 Meghan’s Honor (7-2) and #6 Can’t Hush This (3-1).

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