Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

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Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Saturday, Feb. 17

Racing at Fair Grounds takes center stage this Saturday with a sensational 14-race card featuring six stakes races, with four of them graded stakes. The feature race will be the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes, which is shaping up as the most loaded prep race we’ve seen so far in 2024 on the road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. The undercard is a good one too. The three graded stakes leading up to the Risen Star all have high-quality fields and are good betting races that handicappers can sink their teeth into, including the Grade 3 Mineshaft Stakes Presented by Relyne GI by Hagyard for older horses on the main track. For this weekend’s winners, let’s focus on the Mineshaft Stakes and the Risen Star. If we can pick the winners of these two features, we should be well on our way to a profitable day at Fair Grounds this Saturday. Best of luck.

Fair Grounds, Race 11, $250,000 Mineshaft Stakes Presented by Relyne GI by Hagyard, post time 5:50 p.m. ET

The Mineshaft Stakes will go at 1 1/16 miles on the main track and has drawn a field of nine older horses. The first thing that is apparent when looking over the past performances for this race is the lack of speed entered in the field. This is good news for the likely pacesetter in the race, #3 Best Actor, who will have a chance to get out front to an easy lead and go wire-to-wire. Best Actor is a graded stakes winner earlier in his career who appeared to rediscover his best form late in 2023 with back-to-back front-running wins at Aqueduct and Churchill Downs for trainer Brad Cox. Both wins were with Flavien Prat aboard, and Prat will be back for the mount in the Mineshaft. He should control the pace and have an excellent opportunity to go all the way. Perhaps the horse to beat in the field if not for the pace hurdle is #1 Red Route One, winner of last year’s Grade 3 West Virginia Derby for trainer Steve Asmussen. Red Route One is a deep closer that will be looking for some pace to chase. In his last race, he was able to stalk slightly closer to the lead than usual en route to a runner-up finish behind favored Saudi Crown in the Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes Presented by Relyne GI by Hagyard. A similar kind of trip in this race should yield another exacta finish. #4 Gasoline invades for trainer Todd Pletcher and may be the only horse in the race capable of putting pressure on Best Actor if John Velazquez opts to send him, based on Gasoline’s impressive back-to-back wins last fall at Churchill Downs. The problem for Gasoline is that his tactical speed and his overall good form seem to have abandoned him in his two recent races. Even if Gasoline can’t rebound in this spot, perhaps he can pressure Best Actor enough to give Red Route One a chance.

The Play: Bet to win on #3 Best Actor (3-1) and play him in an exacta box with #1 Red Route One (5-1).

Fair Grounds, Race 14, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes, post time 7:17 p.m. ET

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The Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes will test a full field of 3-year-old Kentucky Derby hopefuls at 1 1/8 miles in the first race on the road to the Kentucky Derby that will offer 50 qualifying points to the winner. This field has come up tough and is full of horses that could turn out to be legitimate contenders for the run for the roses, making it the definitive prep race run so far this season. #3 Honor Marie had a very promising end to his 2-year-old campaign last fall when winning the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs. He should have matured since then and his late run should get a great setup in this race with #11 Track Phantom likely to be setting a pressured pace up front. The 6-1 morning line odds are very enticing on a horse that was last seen ending 2023 on a high note as arguably one of the top Derby prospects we’ve seen to date. Speaking of Track Phantom, it’s hard to poke holes in a horse like this that comes into the race off back-to-back wins in both of Fair Grounds’ prior Derby prep races, the Gun Runner Stakes and the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes. He’ll have a big shot to make it three in a row, but he’ll be sent by jockey Joel Rosario from his outside post and face increased early pressure up front from horses like #7 Hall of Fame, #9 Cardinale, and probably #12 Bee Dancer. Chad Brown seems to have another Derby contender this year, and that’s #4 Sierra Leone, who when last seen ran well but suffered a tough-luck loss to the highly regarded Dornoch in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. If the late-running Honor Marie gets a good pace setup, that means Sierra Leone should be closing down the long Fair Grounds stretch run, as well.

The Play:  Bet #3 Honor Marie (3-1) to win and box him in the exactas and trifectas with #4 Sierra Leone (4-1) and #11 Track Phantom (7-2).