The $400,000, Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park holds a pivotal place on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. Through the years it’s produced 14 winners of the Kentucky Derby, including Mage, who went from fourth place in last year’s Fountain of Youth to first in the run for the roses.

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The Fountain of Youth dates back to 1945, but the last 10-15 editions are of particular interest to horseplayers, since reviewing the recent history of any graded stakes can reveal the type(s) of horses most likely to win future editions.

That’s why we’ve gone through every Fountain of Youth since 2010 and identified half a dozen trends to help your handicapping:

Midpack runners and deep closers perform well

In general, U.S. dirt racing plays in favor of speed horses. But the Fountain of Youth leans in a different direction.

Certainly, there have been speedy winners of the Fountain of Youth. Since 2010 — when the race returned to a two-turn configuration following a one-year hiatus as a one-turn race — six winners were racing first, second, or third after the opening half-mile.

But that leaves eight winners who rallied from midpack or even farther behind. The last three winners closed from eighth place, seventh, and fifth. If you feel compelled to back a stretch runner in the Fountain of Youth, nothing in recent history suggests that’s a bad strategy.

Short-priced horses tend to win

Favorites have won five of the last 14 editions of the Fountain of Youth, including the last three in a row. That’s a 36% win rate more or less in line with expectations for betting favorites.

But before you rush to bet the favorite, keep in mind 64% of favorites since 2010 have been defeated. Buddy’s Saint, Discreet Dancer, Violence, Top Billing, Upstart (via disqualification), Irish War Cry, Good Magic, Hidden Scroll, and Dennis’ Moment all started at 2-1 or less, and all were defeated.

Those upsets notwithstanding, longshot winners of the Fountain of Youth are uncommon. Since 2010, 12 out of 14 editions have been won by horses starting at odds of 5-1 or less. If you choose to oppose the favorite, don’t think too far outside the box — the second or third betting choice is where you should look.

A recent race at Gulfstream is beneficial

It’s not impossible for a horse to win the Fountain of Youth in their first race of the season; Union Rags, Promises Fulfilled, and Forte all achieved the feat since 2010.

But it’s far more common for horses with recent racing experience to win the Fountain of Youth. Specifically, horses who competed in a race at Gulfstream Park in January or February have won 11 of the last 14 editions of the Fountain of Youth.

Bet on trainer Todd Pletcher

Todd Pletcher with Jose (left) and Irad Ortiz. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Fountain of Youth a record four times overall, including three editions since 2010. Pletcher tends to race top-notch 3-year-olds in Florida during the winter, and that’s reflected by his frequent Fountain of Youth victories, most recently Forte last year.

Jockey Jose Ortiz has been hot

When jockey Jose Ortiz rides in the Fountain of Youth, he rarely finishes out of the top three. His lifetime record in this race stands at six rides, two wins (in 2021 and 2022), two seconds, and one third. That’s a 33% win rate and an 83% in-the-money rate, and his win rate would be 50% if Upstart hadn’t been disqualified to second place after crossing the finish line first in 2015. When Jose Ortiz is named to ride in the Fountain of Youth, it’s wise to pay attention.

Horses with graded stakes experience have an advantage

The Fountain of Youth annually draws a strong field, making it difficult for inexperienced maiden and allowance winners to reach the winner’s circle. Did you know 12 of the last 14 Fountain of Youth winners had previously competed in a graded stakes? Furthermore, one of the two winners without graded stakes experience was Itsaknockout, who won via the disqualification of graded stakes winner Upstart.

Since 2010, future Kentucky Derby winner Orb has been the only horse without graded stakes experience to cross the finish line first in the Fountain of Youth. Unless you think an up-and-comer is as talented as Orb, it’s best to favor horses with experienc against graded competition.

Conclusions

After reviewing the recent history of the Fountain of Youth, one horse stands out as the most likely winner in 2024: #8 Locked.

Locked winning Breeders' Futurity (Coady Photography)

Locked has shown abundant talent and potential for the trainer-jockey team of Todd Pletcher and Jose Ortiz. He dominated a fast one-mile maiden special weight at Saratoga last summer, beating future Jerome Stakes winner Drum Roll Please by 7 1/4 lengths. Then, he overcame a wide trip to win the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity on the Road to the Kentucky Derby at Keeneland.

Locked hasn’t run since rallying to finish third in the Nov. 3 Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA at Santa Anita Park, but his lack of a recent race is the only knock on his historical profile. He figures to rally from midfield or farther behind in the Fountain of Youth and will almost assuredly start at odds lower than 5-1, so Locked matches five of our six historical trends and has to be ranked as the horse to beat.

If you want to use a longshot underneath, history suggests stretch-running #9 Dancing Groom is an appealing candidate. He’s already run three times against graded stakes competition on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, most notably finishing third in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct, and he kicked off 2024 with a fifth-place finish in the Feb. 3 Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. With three of the six historical trends in his favor, Dancing Groom has a shot to finish in the Fountain of Youth top four at enticing odds.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the race!