Welcome to 2024 Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail, usually from the Road to the Kentucky Derby prep series that offers qualifying points for the first leg of the series. The 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve will be held May 4, 2024, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we’ll take a closer look at Drum Roll Please, winner of the $145,500 Jerome Stakes on Jan. 6 at Aqueduct. The Hard Spun colt earned 10 points toward qualifying for the 2024 Kentucky Derby with that win and moved into fifth place on the latest Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

Racing Résumé: Drum Roll Please closed from last to first in a five-horse field to win the Jerome Stakes Jan. 6 at Aqueduct, pulling away to win by 3 ¾ lengths as the 3-5 favorite under Javier Castellano. The Jerome win improved upon a third-place finish Dec. 2, 2023, in the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 2 Remsen Stakes, his stakes debut. In the Remsen, Drum Roll Please closed to within a length of the lead in early stretch but faded to finish 4 ¾ lengths behind the top two, Dornoch and Sierra Leone.

Drum Roll Please won one of three starts prior to the Remsen, improving to second when stretching out to a mile at Saratoga Race Course for his second race before winning a one-mile maiden race Oct. 6, 2023, at the Belmont at the Big A meeting.

Drum Roll Please has shown he belongs against stakes competition within the 3-year-old division, but I admit I have some stamina concerns after he faded in the Remsen and won the Jerome with a final eighth of a mile in about 13 ½ seconds. His connections, however, were enthusiastic about his ability to stretch out and handle longer races following the Jerome win.

“We’ve seen a lot of growth with him physically and mentally in the mornings, so we were expecting something nice from him today, and he showed it,” Dustin Dugas, assistant to trainer Brad Cox, said after the Jerome. “We’ve always thought he would go all day, and now with that fitness and that physical development, he can.”

Speed Figures: Since Fierceness posted a dominant win in the FanDuel Racing Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, the points races that followed on the Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby have not been very fast on the whole. Drum Roll Please’s Jerome Stakes win followed suit as he earned an 87 Equibase Speed Figure and an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. The former is three points off his career-best Equibase number and the latter was four points off his best Beyer figure.

For comparison, Fierceness earned a 113 Equibase Speed Figure for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win and a 105 Beyer Speed Figure, which indicates Drum Roll Please has significant ground to make up on the elite 3-year-olds.

Running Style: Drum Roll Please has rallied from off the pace in each of his five career starts, but he stalked the pace under Castellano in his maiden win and, while last of five early, was never more than a couple of lengths off the pace in the Jerome. He has some tactical speed and probably profiles as a stalker-closer more likely to drop back a bit farther if faced with a hot pace or a larger field.

Connections: Gold Square is the racing operation of Florida-based owner Al Gold, who raced graded stakes winners Instant Coffee, Cyberknife, Chace City, and Little Miss Holly. Cyberknife gave Gold his first career Grade 1 win in the 2022 Arkansas Derby. Named after a life-saving tool that helped Gold overcome prostate cancer, Cyberknife also won the TVG.com Haskell Stakes in 2022 and ran second in both the Travers Stakes and Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

Trainer Brad Cox won the Eclipse Award as outstanding trainer in 2020 and 2021 and is a finalist in 2023 after leading all trainers in North America by purse earnings. According to Equibase, Cox sent out the winners of 266 races from 346 starters with 963 starts for earnings of $30,947,677 in 2023. Cox won the 2021 Kentucky Derby with Mandaloun following the disqualification of Medina Spirit and also won the 2021 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets with Essential Quality.

Castellano and Drum Roll Please. (Janet Garaguso/NYRA)

Jockey Javier Castellano has ridden Drum Roll Please in each of his last three races. The four-time Eclipse Award winner and 2017 inductee into the Racing Hall of Fame enjoyed a renaissance season in 2023 as he earned his first Kentucky Derby victory aboard Mage and then swept the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets and Travers Stakes with Arcangelo. Castellano’s $19.4 million in purse earnings was his highest total since 2019.

Pedigree Notes: Pennsylvania-bred Drum Roll Please was sired by Grade 1 winner Hard Spun, runner-up in the 2007 Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic at 1 ¼ miles. He was an accomplished and game racehorse who has emerged as a quality sire in terms of both class and stamina. Some of his top runners to date include 2012 champion 3-year-old filly Questing, 2014 Wood Memorial Stakes winner Wicked Strong, 2023 Kentucky Derby runner-up Two Phil’s, 2015 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Stakes winner Hard Aces, and multiple Grade 1 winner Hard Not to Like. All excelled in graded stakes around two turns.

Drum Roll Please was produced by seven-time stakes winner Imply, by E Dubai. Four of Imply’s stakes victories came at 1 1/16 miles, including wins at that distance on both turf and dirt. Second dam (maternal grandmother), Allude, was a multiple stakes-placed sprinter who produced four stakes winners, while third dam, Ed’s Holy Cow, was a half-sister (same dam, different sire) to Hall of Famer Holy Bull.

Derby Potential: Drum Roll Please is a promising 3-year-old with a stakes win in the Derby trail to his credit. My concerns with him are twofold: first, he simply needs to improve by about 20-25 points in terms of speed figures to compete with the best of this division; and second, I did not like how slowly he finished in the Jerome, completing the final furlong in :13.51 after a leisurely pace in the race. Three-year-olds in winter and early spring can show huge improvements from race to race. Drum Roll Please is definitely one to watch but he has his work cut out for him to become a real win threat in the 2024 Kentucky Derby.