The $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks Presented by Fasig-Tipton on March 23 will be one of the featured races on Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby day at Fair Grounds. The Grade 2 race for 3-year-old fillies serves as a key prep for the Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on Friday, May 3. The Fair Grounds Oaks has produced Kentucky Oaks winners Tiffany Lass, Blushing K.D., Silverbulletday, Ashado, Summerly, Proud Spell, and Rachel Alexandra, the last of these voted Horse of the Year for her 3-year-old campaign in 2009.

This year’s running of the Fair Grounds Oaks could come down to a matchup between trainers Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox. Asmussen, who will be represented by #7 Our Pretty Woman, is co-holder of the record for most Fair Grounds Oaks training wins with four. Cox trains #5 Tarifa in this year’s field (#3 Alpine Princess will scratch and run in the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park per Daily Racing Form). He has won two of the last four runnings of the Fair Grounds Oaks with Bonny South in 2020 and Travel Column in 2021.

The horse to beat looks like Tarifa, who has won three of her four career starts including two two-turn route races in a row at Fair Grounds. Tarifa’s most recent win in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes Presented by Fasig-Tipton came by 2 ¾ lengths over the horse that is perhaps her top rival Saturday, #6 Intricate. Tarifa earned the highest Beyer Speed Figure in this field with the Rachel Alexandra win, has an ideal pace-pressing running style, and still seems to be improving. The Fair Grounds Oaks is the next logical steppingstone on the road to the Kentucky Oaks and Tarifa should handle this test to give Cox his third win in this race in the last five years.

As for Intricate, she is a proven winner in her own right at the graded stakes level with a victory in last fall’s Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill Downs for trainer Brendan Walsh. When she lost to Tarifa in the Rachel Alexandra, she was returning to the races after a 2 ½-month layoff and that could be a possible excuse for the defeat. Also, the Rachel Alexandra was run on a sloppy track, and it’s possible that Intricate could turn the tables on a fast track.

Asmussen’s Our Pretty Woman, who has begun her career 2-for-2 in Fair Grounds route races including a 4 ¼-length allowance win last time out, cannot be taken lightly, either. Our Pretty Woman’s Beyer Figure improved 11 points in that win, and a similar kind of improvement for this young filly in her third lifetime start could be enough to put her squarely in the mix as one of the main contenders.

V V's Dream (Coady Photography)

The other main contender in the Fair Grounds Oaks is #1 V V’s Dream, who exits a disappointing fifth in the Rachel Alexandra but might have needed that race off a 3 ½-month layoff and apparently doesn’t like sloppy tracks based on two subpar losses in a row on wet surfaces. Last year, V V’s Dream looked very good winning the Grade 3 Pocahantas Stakes at Churchill and finishing second in the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland, and she could return to that kind of form on a fast track in her second race off the layoff and win this race in a mild upset.

Among the other entrants, #2 Midsummer March and #4 Lucy Got Game are both facing tough assignments stepping up from maiden wins, and #8 Accommodate Eva has dominated Louisiana-breds but has been much less effective when up against open company.

Of all the horses outside of the favored trio of Tarifa, Intricate, and Our Pretty Woman, the horse with the best chance at the best price at 8-1 is V V’s Dream, trained by Ken McPeek. My wagering strategy for the Fair Grounds Oaks will be as follows: use V V’s Dream in exacta along with the 9-5 morning-line favorite, Tarifa. In the trifecta, we will add in Asmussen’s Our Pretty Woman for a three-horse trifecta box.

Depending on your budget, we’ve outlined two wagers to consider when betting the Fair Grounds Oaks:

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget:

$2 exacta box: 1,5 ($4)

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, Race 11, $2 exacta box 1,5

$1 trifecta box: 1,5,7 ($6)

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, Race 11, $1 trifecta box, 1,5,7

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget:

$10 win on 1 ($10)

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds Race 11, $10 to win on 1

$4 exacta box: 1,5 ($8)

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, Race 11, $4 exacta box 1,5

$2 trifecta box: 1,5,7 ($12)

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, Race 11, $2 trifecta box 1,5,7

Good luck and enjoy the race!