Every year, the Breeders’ Cup attracts a strong contingent of international raiders to challenge North America’s best horses in a series of lucrative World Championships races. Among the 14 Breeders’ Cup races, none attract a stronger international presence on a year-to-year basis than the $4 million, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf.

The 1 ½-mile Turf is routinely won by foreign raiders, but determining which is most likely runner to prevail can be challenging. With this in mind, we’ve taken a look at the history of the Breeders’ Cup Turf to uncover a few noteworthy tips and trends helpful for narrowing down the list of contenders.

Let’s analyze some of the key takeaways:

Closers Have an Edge

Speed is generally an effective weapon in U.S. horse racing, but the Breeders’ Cup Turf is a different beast. While speed horses occasionally succeed in the Turf — 2016 gate-to-wire winner Highland Reel is a prominent example — it’s more common for late runners to claim first prize.

Indeed, history reveals seven of the last 10 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners have rallied from the back half of the pack, with Magician (2013), Found (2015), and Yibir (2021) closing from more than a dozen lengths behind after the opening half-mile. It pays to support runners who can settle early in the 1 1/2-mile journey and unleash a strong finish down the homestretch.

Favorites Typically Run Well

Favorites have won two of the last five editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and over the last 15 years they’ve finished in the top four 13 times. That means if you’ve been tossing favorites from superfecta wagers, you’ve missed 13 out of 15 superfectas since 2008.

U.S.-Based Runners Have Struggled

Enable winning 2018 Turf at Churchill Downs. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Over the last two decades or so, the home team has struggled to nab top honors in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Did you know 20 of the last 25 Turf winners were based overseas at the time of their Breeders’ Cup victory, leaving just five wins for North America?

Irish-Breds Thrive in Turf

No country has dominated the Breeders’ Cup Turf as thoroughly as Ireland. Over the last 29 years, 15 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners have been bred in Ireland, with all but one of them shipping in from overseas to secure their Breeders’ Cup victories. Great Britain, France, and Germany have also produced winners of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and all told, 24 of the 39 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners were bred in Europe.

Respect Aidan O’Brien, Sir Michael Stoute, and Charles Appleby Runners

A significant portion of Ireland’s success in the Breeders’ Cup Turf is owed to trainer Aidan O’Brien. The acclaimed Irish trainer has won the Turf a record-setting six times (all with Irish-breds), securing four of the last 12 renewals with Highland Reel (2016), Found (2015), Magician (2013), and St Nicholas Abbey (2011). Furthermore, 17 of O’Brien’s 32 Breeders’ Cup Turf starters have finished in the top three, including 2022 runner-up Stone Age.

The record of Sir Michael Stoute is just as impressive with four wins and two seconds in the Turf from just 15 starters, including back-to-back wins with Conduit in 2008, 2009. Plus, we have to keep an eye on Charles Appleby, whose five starters in three editions of the Turf have produced victories with Yibir (2021) and Rebel’s Romance (2022). Across all Breeders’ Cup races, Appleby boasts a stellar 9-for-18 (50%) record, suggesting any horse Appleby starts is worth respecting.

Strong in the Saddle: Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore

Moore after winning 2015 Turf aboard Found. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Two of the most successful jockeys in Breeders’ Cup Turf history are Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore. Dettori has ridden five winners from 20 mounts while finishing fourth or better on 13 occasions. Moore’s record is arguably even better — four wins, four seconds, three thirds, and two fourths from 13 rides. To put it another way, all 13 of Moore’s Breeders’ Cup Turf mounts have finished in the superfecta.

Suffice to say, when Dettori and/or Moore are slated to ride in the Turf, it’s wise to sit up and take notice.

Impeccable Class

It usually takes a horse of proven quality to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Ten of the last 12 winners had previously nabbed victory in a Grade 1 or Group 1 race, suggesting inexperienced or up-and-coming types are significantly less likely than established stars to win the Turf.

Females Fare Well

When a filly or mare enters the Breeders’ Cup Turf, it pays to take notice. Over the last eight years, fillies and mares have made 12 starts in the Turf, with Found (2015), Enable (2018), and Tarnawa (2020) nabbing top honors. In both 2018 and 2020, fillies and mares finished 1-2, and at least one female has finished in the trifecta in four of the last five years. With this evidence in mind, there’s no reason to believe fillies and mares can’t hold their own against males in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Sometimes a Prep Race is Just a Perfect Prep

A major key to winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf is to peak at the championship event, not in your previous race. Six of the last 12 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners were beaten in their final prep run, often while facing elite European competition in the prestigious Group 1 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in France. Four of the last 12 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners contested the Arc a few weeks prior, but only Enable managed to win both races.

Conclusions

A bevy of talented international raiders was pre-entered in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf. Irish-breds like Auguste Rodin, Bolshoi Ballet, Broome, Mostahdaf, and Onesto have all won at the Group 1 level, and the same goes for the Kentucky-bred British campaigner King of Steel and the Japanese hopeful Shahryar.

Ryan Moore and Auguste Rodin after Irish Champion Stakes. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Among this group, Auguste Rodin is a clear standout from a historical standpoint. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, the talented 3-year-old has shown impressive talent and versatility throughout his career winning the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at one mile, the Group 1 Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes at 1 1/4 miles, and the Group 1 Betfred Derby and Group 1 Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby at 1 1/2 miles.

Auguste Rodin exits a determined victory against Group 1-winning older rivals Luxembourg and Nashwa in the Irish Champion Stakes and has done well racing on good and good-to-firm turf in Europe, so tackling firm turf at Santa Anita should be right up his alley. It’s worth noting his dam, Rhododendron, thrived on firm turf when finishing second in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

Auguste Rodin is the expected betting favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and his regular rider is the aforementioned Ryan Moore. While he has some tactical speed, he more typically races from off the pace. In short, August Rodin is a strong match for the historical profile of a typical Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, stamping the son of Deep Impact as hands-down the horse to beat.

We also have to highlight the above-mentioned Onesto as a live longshot. Winner of the 2022 Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris racing 1 1/2 miles, Onesto got a late start to his 2023 campaign and struggled at shorter distances, even finishing seventh in the Irish Champion Stakes behind Auguste Rodin.

But Onesto improved significantly when stretching out to 1 1/2 miles for the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, rallying strongly from off the pace to finish third by 1 3/4 lengths against the undefeated Ace Impact. You can make a case that Onesto is best on soft ground and might not relish firm turf at Santa Anita, but his light campaign and improving profile this season leave him with upside for a peak performance if he handles the ground. The strong record of beaten Arc de Triomphe runners in the Breeders’ Cup is reason enough to respect Onesto’s chances.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the race!