Every year, seemingly without fail, the $2 million, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff draws a stellar field worthy of its championship status. The 2023 renewal is no exception, with a deep and competitive field shaping up for the Nov. 4 showdown at Santa Anita Park.

Nine of the 13 pre-entrants are Grade 1 winners. Eight of those Grade 1 winners have achieved top-level victories in 2023. With so many accomplished fillies and mares in the prospective Distaff field, choosing a horse to bet isn’t easy.

Fortunately, historical guidelines can help steer us in the right direction. After analyzing the history of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, we’ve identified half a dozen tips and trends defining the profile of a typical Distaff winner.

Let’s dig in and examine the data:

A Tough Spot for Pacesetters

Tactical speed is a useful weapon in U.S. dirt racing, but the ability to race on or near the lead isn’t a prerequisite for success in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Eleven of the last 15 winners have rallied from outside of the top three after the opening half-mile, including seven who closed from between sixth and ninth position. During the same timeframe, only one Distaff winner (Royal Delta in 2012) managed to lead after the opening half-mile.

Logical Winners

While there have been some major upsets in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, including Spain at 55.90-1 in 2000 and Marche Lorraine at 49.90-1 in 2021, overall the race has been dominated by favorites and short-priced contenders. Favorites have gone 16-for-39 (41%) in the Distaff, and 28 of the 39 winners (72%) started at less than 5-1. In addition, 35 of the last 45 horses (78%) to finish in the Distaff trifecta started at single-digit odds.

Victory in Final Prep Not Essential

To win the Distaff, you need a horse who is ready to peak on the day of the championship—not in their final prep run. Six of the last 15 Distaff winners were beaten in their final start before the Distaff, demonstrating that a last-out victory isn’t critical.

Elite Class Rules

Multiple Grade 1 winner Clairiere. (Susie Raisher/NYRA)

A recent victory might not be critical, but that doesn’t mean the Distaff is ripe for conquest by unproven horses. Established Grade 1 winners have accounted for 15 of the last 17 editions of the Distaff, and one of the horses to defy this trend (Unrivaled Belle) had finished second three times at the Grade 1 level.

Three-Year-Olds Are Dangerous

While older females typically attract a lot of attention in the Distaff, 3-year-old fillies routinely hold their own against their elders, winning 11 of the 39 editions of the Distaff. In fact, at least one 3-year-old filly has finished in the Distaff trifecta in 11 of the last 13 years, so if you’re overlooking the sophomores, you’re probably overlooking winning wagers.

Strong Saratoga Connection

Saratoga Race Course has been the most common proving ground for future Distaff winners, with eight of the last 13 Distaff champions competing at “the Spa” during the summer of their Breeders’ Cup-winning season. The Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes has been a particularly productive prep race, with Malathaat (2022), Forever Unbridled (2017), Stopchargingmaria (2015), and Royal Delta (2012) using the race as a springboard to Distaff glory.       

Conclusions

History suggests that the ideal Breeders’ Cup Distaff contender is a stretch-running Grade 1 winner who figures to start at less than 5-1 after racing at Saratoga during the summer. A last-out victory is not required, and we wouldn’t mind backing a 3-year-old.

You won’t find a perfect match for this profile in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Distaff field, but several contenders come close. The first is Pretty Mischievous, a 3-year-old filly who rallied from fifth place to win the 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks during the spring. An effective stretch runner, Pretty Mischievous won the Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga and exits a close runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes. The only knock on her historical profile is the possibility she’ll start at odds higher than 5-1; we’ll have to wait and see how the betting unfolds to know if she’ll fit this angle.

The same goes for Clairiere, a 5-year-old mare who has won four Grade 1 races through the years, including the Apple Blossom Handicap and Ogden Phipps Stakes in 2023. Third by a head in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, Clairiere is a talented stretch-runner who finished second in the Grade 2 Shuvee Stakes and fifth in the Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga this summer. As with Pretty Mischievous, the only historical issue is the fact Clairiere might start at odds higher than 5-1.

We can’t ignore Wet Paint either. Fourth in the Kentucky Oaks behind Pretty Mischievous, Wet Paint subsequently enjoyed a productive summer at Saratoga, rallying to win the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks and finish second in the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes Presented Keeneland Sales. The 3-year-old filly matches the historical profile of a Distaff winner aside from the fact she’s very likely to offer odds higher than 5-1.

Multiple Grade 1 winner Idiomatic. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Speaking of odds, who will start as the Distaff favorite? Probably Idiomatic, whose four consecutive graded stakes wins include a four-length victory in the Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga. While Idiomatic overcame a stumbling start to rally from fifth place and win the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap during the summer, she’s been most dominant as a pacesetter and benefited from easy leads when wiring the Personal Ensign and the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes at Keeneland. There’s a lot of speed in the prospective Breeders’ Cup Distaff field, so Idiomatic may have to revert to rallying tactics if she’s going to win first prize at Santa Anita.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the race!