Making money betting stakes races with small fields is a challenging proposition, but it’s not impossible. We’re ready to tackle the challenge in Saturday’s $500,000, Grade 2 Flower Bowl Stakes at Saratoga Race Course.
It comes down to math. Say you’re betting an exacta, which requires selecting the top two finishers in the correct order. In a race with 12 horses, there are 132 potential exacta outcomes. But in a four-horse field, there are only 12 exacta possibilities.
That’s why making a profit betting the Flower Bowl will require precision. The 1 3/8-mile turf race for fillies and mares has drawn four entries, so there are only a handful of possible outcomes. We can’t spread deep and cover lots of options — that would sharply reduce our return on investment. Who wants to spend $6 on six different $1 exacta combinations, only to have the $1 exacta pay $6 … or less? Yes, it’s possible to win a bet and lose money if you spread too deep in a small field.
So rather than spread, we’ll play narrow tickets, betting on only one or two possible outcomes. Our cause is aided by the fact separating the four Flower Bowl entrants appears fairly straightforward.
We’ll start by favoring #2 McKulick to take home first prize. The 4-year-old filly has long been a formidable competitor at the graded stakes level; in fact, she’s cracked the top three in nine of her 10 graded stakes starts with three wins. That includes a victory in the 1 1/4-mile Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes last season, in which she rallied from midpack to defeat talented rival With The Moonlight by 1 3/4 lengths.
McKulick remains in strong form this season. Two starts back, she rallied to finish third in a slow-paced renewal of the 1 1/4-mile, Grade 1 New York Stakes. And last time out, she charged home boldly from behind a pedestrian pace to win the 1 1/2-mile, Grade 2 Glens Falls Stakes at Saratoga by a neck over multiple Grade 1 winner War Like Goddess.
There’s hardly any pace in the Flower Bowl field, but that shouldn’t bother McKulick, given how well she ran in the paceless Glens Falls. Under Saratoga’s runaway leading jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. — who wins at a 25% rate on turf — McKulick is a compelling choice to snag another Saratoga stakes victory in the Flower Bowl, a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” race for for the Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf Nov. 4 at Santa Anita Park.
#4 Amazing Grace is a logical choice for second place after running into traffic when finishing third in the Glens Falls, beaten 2 1/2 lengths by McKulick. The 5-year-old mare was an elite competitor in Germany last year and opened her U.S. campaign with a stretch-running score in the 1 1/2-mile, Grade 3 Orchid Stakes at Gulfstream Park, but she’s more of a deep closer than McKulick and may be disadvantaged against the Glens Falls winner as a result.
#3 Tamarama is the wildcard in the Flower Bowl field. The 4-year-filly is making her U.S. debut after competing with some success in British handicaps. Last fall, she beat a couple of next-out winners by two lengths in a 1 1/4-mile handicap on the synthetic track at Chelmsford City.
Tamarama is stepping up in class for the Flower Bowl, but she routinely sets or tracks the pace and looms as the lone speed horse in Saturday’s field. If she shakes loose on an uncontested lead, which seems almost certain to happen, she may prove surprisingly difficult to catch down the homestretch.
#1 Parnac completes the Flower Bowl field. She’s been running well in 1 3/8-mile turf races, rallying to win an allowance-optional claiming race at Belmont Park before running third, beaten less than one length, in the Grade 3 Robert G. Dick Memorial Stakes at Delaware Park.
If you want to bet the Flower Bowl on a modest budget, we recommend playing McKulick over Amazing Grace in a $10 exacta and expand the wager to $20 or $25 if you want to aim for a bigger payday.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 exacta: 2 with 4
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 3rd race, $10 exacta 2 with 4
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
