Saturday’s $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds is one of the youngest Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers. The 1 1/16-mile race for 2-year-olds took place for the first time in 2021, and that inaugural edition featured Rich Strike and Epicenter, the top two finishers in the 2022 Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve.

Can the third renewal of the Gun Runner possibly prove as productive? It’s not out of the question. The eight-horse field is packed with promising young runners. One in particular, #6 Nash, looks like a star in the making for two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox.

Highly regarded Nash (Coady Photography)

As a son of elite stallion Medaglia d’Oro out of Sara Louise, a Grade 2-winning daughter of Malibu Moon, Nash has the pedigree to shine racing one mile and beyond. So it was noteworthy when the Godolphin homebred ran second in his debut dashing three-quarters of a mile on Oct. 7 at Keeneland Race Course. Although Nash was beaten by 5 1/4 lengths, the winning time was fast, and Nash received a sharp 89 Brisnet Speed rating even in defeat.

Unsurprisingly, Nash moved forward in a big way when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles for a Nov. 12 maiden special weight race at Churchill Downs. Racing around two turns for the first time, Nash dashed to the lead under jockey Florent Geroux, set quarter-mile fractions of :23.83, :47.93, and 1:12.41, and then powered clear under a hand ride to obliterate his rivals by 10 1/4 lengths.

Even though Nash wasn’t asked for his best (and was easing up in the closing yards), he ran the final five-sixteenths of a mile in an excellent :30.74 to stop the clock in the fast time of 1:43.15. His reward was a 97 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in the Gun Runner field.

Nash’s runaway victory so impressed horseplayers that he closed at odds of 18-1 in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2. Only FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winner Fierceness (8-1) and Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity hero Locked (14-1) proved more popular among individually listed horses.

If Nash repeats or improves upon his maiden performance in the Gun Runner, he’ll be mighty tough to beat. Geroux retains the mount, and it’s worth noting Geroux and Cox teamed up to win the 2022 Gun Runner with Jace’s Road. If you’re planning to bet the Gun Runner, we recommend confidently keying Nash on top of exacta and trifecta tickets.

The question is, who to use for second and third place? We definitely want #8 Track Phantom in the mix. Although the bay colt was beaten in his first two starts, those were one-turn miles against quality competition. Track Phantom finished third in his career debut behind subsequent Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes and Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity runner-up Stronghold, then improved in his second start to finish second by half a length against future Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes runner-up Honor Marie.

For his third start, Track Phantom stretched out around two turns for a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. The result? He led almost all the way to win by 4 3/4 lengths over next-out maiden winner Lat Long. Track Phantom reached the finish line in 1:44.72 and earned a sharp 93 Brisnet Speed rating, stamping him as the second-fastest horse in the Gun Runner field. He’s a logical choice to complete the exacta for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who won this race two years ago with Epicenter.

#2 Catching Freedom is another compelling contender. In his debut racing one mile at Churchill Downs, he rallied to defeat a next-out winner by 3 3/4 lengths. While Catching Freedom subsequently finished fourth in a $100,000 allowance-optional claiming race at Churchill, he had nowhere to run in deep stretch and was beaten by only 2 1/4 lengths. You can make a case Catching Freedom would have won if he’d gotten a clear trip.

We’ll round out our tickets with #4 Neat, a wildcard since he’s competed exclusively on turf so far. He’s been dominant since stretching out around two turns, smashing a Laurel Park maiden special weight by 4 1/4 lengths and a Fair Grounds $100,000 allowance-optional claimer by 3 1/2 lengths. Clearly, there’s talent here, and as a son of Florida Derby and Donn Handicap winner Constitution, there’s a chance Neat will handle the switch to dirt just fine.

Depending on your budget, here’s how we recommend betting the Gun Runner Stakes:

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 exacta: 6 with 8

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, 12th race, $10 exacta 6 with 8

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$15 exacta: 6 with 8

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, 12th race, $15 exacta 6 with 8

$5 trifecta: 6 with 8 with 2,4 ($10)

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, 12th race, $5 trifecta 6 with 8 with 2,4

$2.50 trifecta: 6 with 2,4 with 8 ($5)

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, 12th race, $2.50 trifecta 6 with 2,4 with 8

Good luck, and enjoy the race!