The last 20 years of the $2 million Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint produced five editions decided by a neck or less and eight winners who paid $24.60 or higher for a $2 win bet. The most important sprint race in North America typically is a very exciting horse race.

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In fact, upsets are even more likely at Santa Anita Park, which in hosting 10 previous editions has produced only one winning favorite and five double-digit odds winners.

Let’s examine recent historical data in search of some tips and trends to guide the way when looking for this year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner. First, let’s dig into the last 20 years of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint from Cajun Beat’s $47.60 win at Santa Anita in 2003 through Elite Power’s victory last year at Keeneland that paid $13.10 for a $2 bet.

Then, we’ll take a closer look at this race when it has been held at Santa Anita. For the Santa Anita editions of the Sprint, the focus will be on the eight editions held on a dirt main track and, for the sake of betting analysis, I’ll remove the two editions held on an all-weather surface from the equation.

Five Trends to Consider When Evaluating the Sprint

Aloha West defeats Dr. Schivel in 2021. (Eclipse Sportswire)

1.) Nine of the 20 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winners from 2003 through 2022 were horses that entered the race as pacesetters or press-the-pace type horses. In other words, they preferred to race in front or just off the early speed. Two other winners in this timeframe were stalker/press the pace type runners. The last nine winners were off-the-pace runners, but when handicapping don’t forget that tactical speed remains extremely important in the Sprint.

2.) Only three favorites have won over the last 20 years and there have been some impressive upsets, but it really has been a bit of a coin flip as eight winners between 2003 and 2022 went off at odds of less than 4-1. So, while it makes sense to keep an eye out for longshots, logical contenders also frequently win. Pairing a live longshot with the second and/or third betting choice in exacta and trifecta bets can be a solid strategy. The $2 exacta with 11.30-1 Aloha West and second betting choice Dr. Schivel paid $99.20 for a $2 exacta in 2021, while third betting choice Elite Power and 31.45-1 longshot C Z Rocket finished first and second last year for a $392.40 exacta and a 50-cent trifecta that paid $342.36 with odds-on favorite Jackie’s Warrior third.

3.) How do you uncover longshot winners like Cajun Beat ($47.60 in 2003), Silver Train ($25.80 in 2005), Thor’s Echo ($33.20 in 2006), Dancing in Silks ($52.60 in 2009), Trinniberg ($29.40 in 2012), Work All Week ($40.20 in 2014), Whitmore ($38.80 in 2020), and Aloha West ($24.60 in 2021)? Sometimes really good horses in top form are simply overlooked in deep fields like you see at the Breeders’ Cup. Four of the eight horses listed above entered the Sprint off a stakes win and three others were second by a length or less. Only Whitmore was unplaced in his final Breeders’ Cup prep and he was a proven Grade 1 winner who finished third in the previous year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint and second in the Sprint in 2018. If you look at one of the entrants and think, “hey that’s pretty good value on a really nice horse!” … you have your longshot.

4.) Give a long look at 3-year-olds and lightly raced runners on the rise. Five of the last 20 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint were won by 3-year-olds and eight of the last 20 were won by sprinters with 10 career starts or less entering the race. The average number of lifetime races for winners of this race entering the Sprint has been 13.4 with a median of 12 over the last 20 years. Sprinters can get really good, really fast and they don’t need a ton of conditioning to go three-quarters of a mile. Midnight Lute in 2008 (his repeat win) and Secret Circle in 2013 won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in just their second start of the year. Both of thoses horses were trained by Bob Baffert.

5.) For the most part, recent form rules when handicapping horse races. Horses coming off a win or a strong effort are more likely to run well in their next start than horses coming off a dull race. That is especially true in the Sprint where 18 of the last 20 winners entered off a win (13) or a top-three finish (four seconds, one third). The only exceptions were the aforementioned Whitmore and Midnight Lute in 2008, who was 10^th in the Pat O’Brien Stakes in his return from a nine-month layoff but regained his elite form two months later to repeat in the Sprint. The last 20 Sprint winners have combined to win 55 of 100 starts leading up to the World Championships in the calendar year they won the Sprint.

Drilling Down at Santa Anita

The eight dirt editions of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Santa Anita (1986, 1993, 2003, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2019) have produced an even higher average win payout of $22.03 and median payout $18.30 than the 20-year sample we explored above.

Secret Circle in 2013. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The only winning favorite among the eight winners was 5-2 Secret Circle in 2013 and four of the winners paid $24 or more: Smile ($24 in 1986), Cajun Beat ($47.60 in 2003), Trinniberg ($29.40 in 2012), and Work All Week ($40.20 in 2014).

Furthermore, these races seem to even more strongly reinforce several trends we discussed above, including three 3-year-olds winners among the eight. Let’s take a closer look:

1. Speed is potent. Six of the eight Breeders’ Cup Sprint winners on dirt at Santa Anita were pace or press the pace type runners and another, Secret Circle, was certainly not short on speed. Six of the winners were in first by early stretch, while Mitole in 2019 was second. The only exception was Cardmania in 1993, when Meafara drilled the first half-mile in a blistering :43.94 and nearly held on, coming up just a neck short of fast-closing Cardmania, who capitalized on the fast pace to make up a 2 ½-length deficit in the final furlong.

2. Peaking at the right time. The importance of recent form is even more noticeable in looking at the winners of the eight editions of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint held on dirt at Santa Anita. Six of the eight entered the race off a win, while Trinniberg was second by a half-length in the Gallant Bob Stakes at Parx Racing. Smile in 1986 finished sixth in a stakes race on a sloppy track at Philadelphia Park in his final prep race, but he had won a one-mile Grade 3 race by five lengths in his prior start and ran second in the Sprint the previous year to Precisionist.

3. Consistency also is key. From June through their final prep races, these eight Breeders’ Cup Sprint winners amassed 13 wins, seven seconds, and four thirds in 27 races for a 48.1% win percentage and 89% rate for top-three finishes. The four most recent – Secret Circle (2013), Work All Week (2014), Drefong (2016), and Mitole (2019) – combined for seven wins, one second, and one third in nine starts from June through their final Breeders’ Cup prep.

Evaluating the 2023 Contenders

Looking at this year’s contingent of runners pre-entered for the Sprint, let’s start with defending winner Elite Power. He won his first three races of the year before a second to Gunite in the seven-furlong, Grade 1 Forego Stakes Aug. 26 that halted an eight-race winning streak. His form is terrific and his class is well established, but he does prefer to come from off the pace, especially when racing at this distance. Sprint winners seeking a repeat win over the last 20 editions are just 2-for-9 with six unplaced finishes. Elite Power profiles as the probable favorite.

Gunite (Adam Coglianese/NYRA)

If you are inclined to try to beat the favorite in the Sprint, which will be my strategy, three other fairly obvious contenders with a significant shot are 2021 Sprint runner-up Dr. Schivel, the aforementioned Gunite, and local star The Chosen Vron. All three profile as press the pace types with the ability to win leading from start to finish or to stalk if necessary, but they should be close to the front.

Dr. Schivel was unplaced when stretching out to a mile for a Grade 1 in June but came back to run third by a neck in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes before winning the Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes Presented by Estrella Jalisco at this track/distance Sept. 30. He’s 4-for-6 on the main track at Santa Anita (one of the two defeats was in his career debut at 4 ½ furlongs in June 2020) and a proven Grade 1 winner.

Gunite has two wins and two seconds since June and has finished in the top three in all seven races this year while competing against elite horses, including his victory over Elite Power in the Forego. His odds might get a boost from a second-place finish last out as the heavy favorite in the Parx Dirt Mile Stakes, but that was run at a distance a quarter-mile longer than the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He’s got three wins, two seconds, and a third in six races at this distance.

The Chosen Vron has won eight straight races and his overall record of 13 wins from 17 starts is eye-catching. Even better is the fact that he absolutely loves the Santa Anita main track with seven wins from eight starts, including wins in each of his last six tries on the dirt at Santa Anita. He’s posted multiple front-running stakes wins on the Santa Anita main track and also has utilized stalking trips like he did most recently in winning the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes. He ticks almost every box.

Speed Boat Beach finished second by a head to Dr. Schivel in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship in his first start of the year, and if you recall from earlier in this blog trainer Bob Baffert twice has won this race with horses making their second start of the season in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Midnight Lute in 2008 and Secret Circle in 2013, both at Santa Anita). Speed Boat Beach has raced only five times and has set or pressed the pace in every race with three wins and one second. Three of those starts were on turf, including an unplaced finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last November, but this 3-year-old is very fast on dirt and could surprise.

Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes winner Hoist the Gold is a little inconsistent for my taste, especially given what we know about past Breeders’ Cup Sprint winners, but the runner-up from that race, Nakatomi, is another possible price play. As you might have noticed, there appears to be plenty of speed lining up for this race. Nakatomi’s off-the-pace running style might not fit the historical profile as well as others, but he should get a perfect setup and the last three winners of the Sprint were stalker-closer types. He has a 3 ½-length win in an allowance race at Saratoga and a second by three-quarters of a length in the Phoenix in his two starts since June and has four top-three finishes in five starts this year. Class is a bit of a question, but he does own a stakes win and four graded stakes-placings.

I’ll probably use Speed Boat Beach and Nakatomi in my exactas with The Chosen Vron and one of Gunite or Dr. Schivel and hope for a nice return on my investment.