Kentucky Derby Betting Strategies

Gambling
The horses race on the first turn in the 2014 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The Kentucky Derby is big news and possibly the best-known horse race globally. It is short and sweet, but the sheer excitement of those two minutes motivates vast crowds of spectator’s time after time. Whether they are at the track in person or watching television, the atmosphere is electric, and the event wouldn't be complete without a flutter on the winner.

However, this is serious business for some bettors, and understanding betting strategies and ways to bet on the Kentucky Derby leads to serious research and weeks of planning.

The Horses

The first strategy is to know your horses. There are up to 20 horses running the Kentucky Derby each year; in the pandemic, just 15 horses left the starting gate, but it is still quite a busy race so take your time to look at the form. All horses are 3 years old, so this is a once in career deal and harder to track progress as many are green and new to professional racing. However, the race may be in May, but the preamble starts points racing in September, known as the Road to the Kentucky Derby. This gives punters a chance to see how horses run as there are 30 races and points awarded to the horse, finishing in the top four. This also determines the final runners in the Kentucky Derby, with those finishing in the top 18 given a place at the starting gate.

Know Your Bets

When it comes to building a strategy, you need to be aware of the types of bets you could choose to place.

Win - the horse must win the Derby, a $2 wager in 2021 returned $26.20 for a winning ticket.

Place - if you make a place bet, the horse must finish first or second. This increases your chance of being correct, decreasing the amount you win. For example, a $2 place bet on Medina Spirit in the 2021 Kentucky Derby returned $12, while a $2 place bet on second-place finisher Mandaloun paid $23.

Show - in this bet, you are wagering that your chosen horse will finish in the top three. Again, if this happens, you will win less, a $2 show wager on average returned $8.70 in 2021.

Exacta - a much harder bet to win, this wager states the correct order and names of the first- and second-placed horses; a $2 stake paid $503.60 in last year’s Kentucky Derby.

Trifecta - if you are feeling very confident, you could place the trifecta bet and correctly predict the top three in order. Much harder to do, this attracts a bigger payout; a $1 wager on average has returned $6,700 over the last two decades.

Superfecta - Are you feeling lucky? In this case, you may want to place a superfecta bet - correctly predicting the top four in the correct order. Over the last 22 years, average payouts on this bet from a $1 stake have been anywhere from $64,500 to $432,000.

There are a couple of conditions placed on the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta as the bet's cost goes up depending on how many horses you choose. You can select as many horses as you like, but for example, on a trifecta, bet a $1 box with five horses costs you $60. With a return of potentially $6,700, this is still a good bet if you think you can pull off the win.

Exotic Wagers

The exacta, trifecta and superfecta are classed as exotic wagers, and there are others that can be made in this category, so there are many options open to you. Daily doubles, super high five, and horizontal wagers are also available. Still, you should research these to understand the cost and potential return before parting with your money. The best advice is to start small and learn the ropes before making any big bets.

newsletter sign-up

Stay up-to-date with the best from America's Best Racing!

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Instagram TikTok YouTube
Facebook Twitter Pinterest Instagram TikTok YouTube