
The Claim-to-Fame Journey of Lava Man
A competitive group of eight three-year-old fillies will sprint seven-eighths of a mile on the Colonial Downs dirt track in Saturday’s $125,000 Miss Disco Stakes, one of the feature events on the first weekend of Colonial’s 2025 meet.
The Miss Disco doesn’t contain an abundance of pace on paper. That could lend an advantage to New York raider #4 Mila Candy, who has repeatedly shown tactical speed. She’s stayed within two lengths of the early lead in all three of her starts, including when winning an Aqueduct maiden special weight with a flashy 94 Brisnet speed rating that tops the Miss Disco field.
Mila Candy didn’t fare quite as well in the Jersey Girl Stakes at Saratoga Race Course last time out. After racing one length off the lead for half a mile, she faded to finish fifth by five lengths. But even in defeat she earned a respectable speed figure.
Whereas the Jersey Girl was open to all 3-year-old fillies, the Miss Disco is restricted to fillies who are registered Virginia/Maryland-bred or Virginia/Maryland-sired. This means the competition should be a bit easier, opening the door for Mila Candy to shine in her second stakes appearance. The fact that she’s racing with blinkers for the first time adds to the appeal, since blinkers could sharpen Mila Candy’s early speed and put her in a perfect position setting or pressing a modest pace.
If you want to keep your wagering strategy simple, place a win bet on Mila Candy and call it a day. If you want to invest a bit more and chase a higher payoff, add an exacta using #1 Conquerthosewecan and #7 Safe Trust for second place.
Conquerthosewecan has won each of her last two starts sprinting, including a recent $62,500 allowance-optional claiming race at Laurel Park, which marked her first start since November. She’s eligible to improve in her second race of the year.
Safe Trust has faltered in recent starts sprinting on turf and running long on dirt. But her form sprinting on dirt is solid. In April, she dominated a $75,000 allowance-optional claimer at Laurel by three lengths with a 91 Brisnet speed rating.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #4 Mila Candy
What to say at the betting window: Colonial Downs, Race 5, $10 to win on 4
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$20 to win on #4 Mila Candy
What to say at the betting window: Colonial Downs, Race 5, $20 to win on 4
$5 exacta: 4 with 1,7 (total cost: $10)
What to say at the betting window: Colonial Downs, Race 5, $5 exacta 4 with 1,7
Good luck, and enjoy the race!