Dan's Double: Stephen Foster Day Plays at Churchill Downs

Gambling
Racing at Churchill Downs (Eclipse Sportswire)

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!


weekend TV schedule

Friday, June 26: 1-6 p.m. ET on FS2; 6-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, June 27: 1-3 p.m. ET on FS2; 3-6:30 p.m. ET on FS1; 5-6 p.m. ET on NBC; 6-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, June 28: 1-6 p.m. ET on FS2; 4-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, June 27

Churchill Downs, Race 4, 2:38 p.m. ET

#11 Medicine Tail: This is a really fun maiden race featuring a couple of powerful ownership outfits and several horses with “win-early” pedigrees. #9 Holland, a $400,000 purchase by Triple Crown-winning owners WinStar and China Horse Club, is one of two sons of Into Mischief in this race. Those horses usually run well early, as do horses by Kantharos, who happens to be the sire of #11 Medicine Tail. Despite that, Medicine Tail looked really green on debut when he hesitated at the start and then rallied on the wrong lead for the length of the stretch. Still, he managed to finish well enough to end up third in that spot. That was a bigger field and he broke from the gate near the rail. Here, he’s drawn the far outside post and he’s getting blinkers for the first time, which indicates to me that he’ll be a lot sharper early and isn’t likely to get crowded to his outside as he was last out. Owner PTK and trainer Dane Kobiskie aren’t as high-profile as the connections mentioned earlier but they’re more than capable of connecting at a price in a spot like this with one of their 2-year-old runners.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 win, place on #11 Medicine Tail ($10)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$6 win, place on #11 Medicine Tail ($12)

$5 exacta: 11 with 9 ($5)

$2 exacta: 9 with 11 ($2)

$.50 trifecta: 9,11 with 2,9,11 with 2,5,7,9,11 ($6)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$10 win, place on #11 Medicine Tail ($20)

$8 exacta: 11 with 9 ($8)

$4 exacta: 9 with 11 ($4)

$1 trifecta: 9,11 with 2,7,9,11 with 2,5,7,9,11 ($18)

Churchill Downs, Race 11, $100,000 Regret Stakes, 6:20 p.m. ET

#12 Pass the Plate: This filly was beaten just a little more than a length last out in the Tepin Stakes by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Sharing. Just last weekend, Sharing returned to finish second in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. Not only did Pass the Plate post a race-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure in that race, she made her move traveling widest of any in the field and she didn’t have an overly fast pace to close into. In fact, the pacesetter finished a close-up fourth and Sharing was within a few lengths of the lead the whole way around. That last race was at a mile and it seems fairly evident that Pass the Plate has every chance to take a step forward going this longer mile and an eighth. She’s twice raced at a mile and a sixteenth and she won both of those starts. On each occasion, Julien Leparoux was aboard and he’ll be back to ride her again on Saturday.

The probable favorite in this race is #5 Crystal Cliffs. I’d expect her to take plenty of money on account of how well trainer Graham Motion has been firing with his turf starters and how impressive this filly was in her U.S. debut. But she checks a big box for a bet-against favorite for me. She was on Lasix for the first time last out and typically these horses will regress in their second start on Lasix stateside. In fact, I’d be more likely to include on my tickets #11 Witez who was boxed in late but still ran on really well to finish second to Crystal Cliffs last out.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 win, place on #12 Pass the Plate ($10)

Strategy on a $25 Budget 

$4 win, place, show on #12 Pass the Plate ($12)

$1 trifecta key: 12 with 1,4,11,13 ($12)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$8 win, place, show on #12 Pass the Plate ($24)

$1 trifecta key: 12 with 1,4,11,13 ($12)

$10 exacta: 12 with 1 ($10)

$4 exacta: 1 with 12 ($4)

Last Week’s Earnings: $1,708.93

2020 Earnings: $3,471.33

newsletter sign-up

Stay up-to-date with the best from America's Best Racing!