Dan’s Double: Money-Making Strategy at Monmouth

Gambling
Horses race on the Monmouth Park turf course on the 2018 Haskell Invitational Stakes undercard. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!


Saturday, July 18

Monmouth Park, Race 10, $300,000 Monmouth Cup Stakes, 4:40 p.m. ET

weekend TV schedule

Friday, July 17: 1-6:30 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, July 18: 1-7 p.m. ET on FS1; 5–6 p.m. ET on NBC; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, July 19: 1-6:30 p.m. ET on FS1 post time varies on TVG

#9 Bal Harbour: This horse has quietly been one of the more consistent runners in this field and he always runs well at Monmouth Park. If you go back a year, he lost this very race by just a head. In that race, he tracked the pace wide throughout and still had plenty of kick late; Though beaten by a small margin, he finished 12 lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. Mike Smith was aboard for the ride in that race and (as of this writing) is listed to ride again on Saturday. Bal Harbour followed up the aforementioned performance with a second-place finish in the Woodward Stakes — ahead of accomplished horses like Yoshida and Tom’s d’Etat. Despite having not won at this 1 1/8-mile distance, he seems to have no issue extending late when other horses are tiring. With horses like his stablemate #7 Joevia and speedster #10 Bodexpress entered, the pace is sure to be lively, too, and that should benefit Bal Harbour.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$2 win, place, show on #9 Bal Harbour ($6)

$2 exacta 9 with 1,4 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$4 win, place, show on #9 Bal Harbour ($12)

$2 exacta 9 with 1,4,10 ($6)

$1 trifecta key 9 with 1,4,10 ($6)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$6 win, place, show on #9 Bal Harbour ($18)

$4 exacta 9 with 1,4,10 ($12)

$2 exacta 1,4 with 9 ($4)

$1 trifecta key 9 with 1,3,4,10 ($12)

$1 trifecta 1 with 4,9 with 3,4,9,10 ($4)

Monmouth Park, Race 11, $300,000 United Nations Stakes, 5:12 p.m. ET

#8 Corelli: Before being brought over from the UK for his last start, this horse got a lot of experience going longer distances and won at a mile and a half. On two other occasions, he lost by just a head and a nose at a mile and a half on the turf in stakes. He made up a decent amount of ground late in the U.S. debut last out at Belmont in the Tiller Stakes despite not really ever getting clear running room — and that was after he lunged at the break and started last. On Saturday, he gets Lasix (furosemide) for the first time as well as blinkers for the first time. Trainer Jonathan Thomas wins at a really nice 32% clip when adding blinkers for the first time. This horse will obviously improve first-time Lasix, too. If he can get a horse or two to put a little more pressure on Paret (the horse who won the Tiller on the front end), he should be flying past them late. The potential pace players include #3 Muggsamatic, who has generally been within a few lengths of the front when going shorter; #4 Eve’s Medal, a maiden who didn’t break well on debut and would seem to be otherwise in over his head; and #6 Current, a horse who probably suffered from a wide draw last out and has enough early speed to keep Paret honest).

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$5 win, place on #8 Corelli ($10)

Strategy on a $25 Budget 

$5 win, place, show on #8 Corelli ($15)

$4 exacta 8 with 1,6 ($4)

$1 exacta 1,6 with 8 ($2)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$6 win, place, show on #8 Corelli ($18)

$6 exacta 8 with 1,6 ($12)

$2 exacta 1,6 with 8 ($4)

$1 trifecta 6,8 with 1,5,6,8 with 1,5,6,8 ($12)

$1 trifecta 9 with 6,8 with 1,6,8 ($4)

Last Week’s Earnings: $24.00

2020 Earnings: $3,547.83

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