Dan's Double: Looking for Longshots at Tampa Bay Downs

Gambling
Racing at Tampa Bay Downs (Eclipse Sportswire)

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!

Saturday, May 9

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 2, 1 p.m. ET

weekend Television schedule

Friday, May 8: 4-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, May 9: 4-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, May 10: 4-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN; post time varies on TVG

#6 Sindarius: The likely favorite in this race, #1 Tiz Approved, is drawn down on the rail; he could be dangerous if he can get away cleanly and use his speed to open up on this field early — $8,000 claimers aren’t typically known for their ability to chase down horses from off the pace. That said, Tiz Approved will be overbet for a horse coming out of a bottom-level maiden race and making his first start in non-winners of two competition. On the flip side, Sindarius has a bit more experience under his belt and is dropping down from the $16,000 non-winners of three level. He’s also cutting back from a mile and 40 yard race for trainer Keith Nations who shows high strike rate and positive ROI going sprint to route. You’re not going to get a huge price here but Sindarius might still be an overlay since most of his races have come on the turf and his last few efforts look pretty average at first glance. 

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$3 win and place on #6 Sindarius ($6)

$4 exacta 6 with 1 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget 

$5 win and place on #6 Sindarius ($10)

$6 exacta 6 with 1 ($6)

$3 exacta 1 with 6 ($3)

$1 trifecta 1,6 with 1,6 with 3,4,5 ($6)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$15 to win and $8 to place on #6 Sindarius ($23)

$10 exacta 6 with 1 ($10)

$5 exacta 1 with 6 ($5)

$2 trifecta 1,6 with 1,6 with 3,4,5 ($12)

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 9, 4:40 p.m. ET

#6 Celestial Orb: Again here, we’ll be taking a shot against what’s likely to be a short-priced favorite in #5 R Next Roll. That one comes in from Gulfstream and takes a steep drop here for trainer Georgina Baxter. But it was only a few races ago that Celestial Orb was in against significantly tougher horses herself. On the drop to the $5K level last out (also switching turf to dirt and cutting back to six furlongs) she showed dramatic improvement. In fact, even though she finished third in that race, she ran the biggest race of any in that spot — Celestial Orb broke poorly, she was forced to make an early move, rallied wide and was just passed for the place spot in the last jump. A return effort similar to that one would make her a smart play at a price. 

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$2 win, place and show on #6 Celestial Orb ($6)

$2 exacta box 5,6 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$4 to win, $3 to place and show on #6 Celestial Orb ($10)

$4 exacta 6 with 5 ($4)

$2 exacta 5 with 6 ($2)

$.50 trifecta key box 6 with 2,58 ($9) 

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$10 to win, $5 to place and show on #6 Celestial Orb ($20)

$8 exacta 6 with 5 ($8)

$4 exacta 5 with 6 ($4)

$1 trifecta key box 6 with 2,58 ($18)

Last Week’s Earnings: $0

2020 Earnings: $1,582.20

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