Betting Against Maximum Security in San Diego Handicap

Gambling
Higher Power won the 2019 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar and could upset probable favorite Maximum Security Saturday in the San Diego Handicap. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Six horses are slated to enter the starting gate in Saturday’s rescheduled $150,000 Grade 2 San Diego Handicap at Del Mar,  and it’s safe to assume most eyes will be focused on Maximum Security (#5), the champion 3-year-old male of 2019.

Since his December 2018 debut in a maiden claiming race, Maximum Security has crossed the finish line first in nine of his 10 starts, including a controversial renewal of the 2019 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. The front-running bay colt lost the lead when he ducked out on the far turn, and while he battled back to prevail by 1 3/4 lengths, he ultimately lost the race via disqualification for causing interference.

No matter, though – Maximum Security bounced back to win the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational, Grade 3 Bold Ruler Handicap, and Grade 1 Cigar Mile Handicap to end the season on a successful note. He was as impressive as ever in the inaugural running of the $20 million Saudi Cup on Feb. 29 overcoming a traffic-filled run down the homestretch to prevail by three-quarters of a length over 2019 champion older dirt female Midnight Bisou.

But although Maximum Security possesses deep reserves of talent and tenacity, he’ll be facing a bevy of new obstacles in the San Diego Handicap. He’ll be returning from a 4 1/2-month layoff while carrying top weight of 127 pounds, conceding between five and nine pounds to his rivals. He’ll be ridden for the first time by Abel Cedillo because regular jockey Luis Saez is on the sidelines after testing positive for COVID-19. And Maximum Security will be racing for the first time under the care of Bob Baffert, who assumed training duties following the Saudi Cup.

The switch to Baffert’s barn means Maximum Security is training in a completely different manner than in the past. Whereas he used to stay fit with long gallops and slow workouts, under Baffert’s tutelage he’s been cranking out fast workouts week after week, culminating with five-eighths of a mile in :59 3/5 on July 11 at Del Mar. This training regimen could potentially sharpen Maximum Security’s speed and fitness, perhaps propelling him to an even higher level of performance. But then again, it could also take a little getting used to, so it’s hard to know what to expect of Maximum Security off the layoff.

There’s another obstacle standing between Maximum Security and the winner’s circle – formidable competition. Four of his six rivals are graded stakes winners, including Higher Power (#1), who can challenge for victory if Maximum Security brings anything less than his A-game.

Grade 1 winner Higher Power (Eclipse Sportswire)

Higher Power has shown flashes of significant talent since last summer, when he romped in the 1 1/4-mile, Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar by 5 1/4 lengths, earning impressive speed figures across the board. In fact, the 110 Brisnet Speed rating he posted is higher than Maximum Security’s career-best 108 from the Cigar Mile.

After taking a little time off, Higher Power returned from a four-month layoff in the June 6 Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup racing 1 1/4 miles at Santa Anita. While he was no match for runaway winner Improbable, Higher Power did gain ground down the homestretch to finish second, beaten just 3 1/4 lengths with a 105 Brisnet Speed rating.

With this prep race under his belt, Higher Power figures to run just as well or better while returning to Del Mar for the San Diego Handicap. The Del Mar dirt track can be tricky for some horses to handle, so the clear affinity Higher Power demonstrated for the surface last summer is encouraging. If Maximum Security wins as expected, Higher Power should round out the top two. And if the favorite falters, Higher Power can steal the show.

So what’s the best strategy for playing the San Diego Handicap? If you want to shoot for a modest score on a small budget, boxing Maximum Security and Higher Power in the exacta is the way to go. If they run 1-2 in either order, you’ll cash a winning ticket.

But if you want to aim for a higher return on investment, why not take a stand against Maximum Security and play Higher Power on top? Getting a fair price on a proven Grade 1 winner returning to his favorite track is an enticing (and potentially lucrative) prospect.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$7 exacta: 5 with 1

What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, 10th race, $7 exacta: 5 with 1

$3 exacta: 1 with 5

What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, 10th race, $3 exacta: 1 with 5

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$20 to win on #1 Higher Power

What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, 10th race, $20 to win on 1

$10 exacta: 1 with 5

What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, 10th race, $10 exacta: 1 with 5

Good luck, and enjoy the race!

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