The Basics: How to Bet the Kentucky Derby
Best Bets: Top Plays from Coast to Coast
GamblingAmerica’s Best Racing and handicapper (and avid gambler) Monique Vág team up to provide horseplayers with their best bets of the weekend.
Vág will identify her top picks as well as at least one longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet. She also will occasionally look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or try to spot a nice opportunity for other wagers.
This Weekend’s Bets
Saturday, Aug. 15
Best Bet
Saratoga, Race 7, 4:32 p.m. ET
#6 Mo Ready: He draws directly outside the probable pacesetter and seemingly the race’s lone speed. This draw is perfect for this gelding to work out a potential stalking trip. Although he has tried his luck both sprinting and routing, his best efforts and one and only career win have come racing longer than a mile.
I expect this gelding to be sharper making his second start off a lengthy layoff. Here’s hoping this time around he doesn’t tire late in deep stretch.
Longshot Play
Woodbine, Race 11, 6:28 p.m. ET
#3 Grazely: The probable favorite in here, #10 Muskoka Giant will likely be over-bet being jockey Kazushi Kimura’s choice over a few others, so I’m going price-shopping with this runner making his second career start overall but his first start as a gelding.
In his parimutuel debut he clipped heels in the stretch and unfortunately never had a chance to recover. Today he is raced back on just over a week’s time, and gets to race over the turf surface that he was initially scheduled to race over (before moved to the synthetic). I’m hoping he’s much closer today and the surface change can help spark a big effort.
Best Bet
Saratoga, Race 11, 6:49 p.m. ET
#6 Michael’s Bad Boy: He’s looked much better this year since dropping into the maiden claiming ranks and facing off against easier. In his two efforts against maiden claiming company, he’s been positioned well to work out a late stretch rally and fell just short in both tries, losing by less than a length on June 20, and then by 2 ¾ lengths on July 12 after making a three-wide rally. He’s likely to have live legs late working out a closing trip and looks like the one to beat off his recent speed figures and efforts.
Best Bet
Del Mar, Race 8, 8:30 p.m. EST
#2 Park Avenue: This 2-year-old filly makes her debut Saturday against a field of eight others, only one of them having a start under her belt already. I landed on this filly who draws a great post to work with drawing inside of her main rivals for a John Sadler barn already boasting five winners over the past 14 days.
At $450,000, this filly was a very expensive purchase and looks like she could get the jump on the others at this short 5 ½-furlong sprinting distance.