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Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016 but was in the red for 2017. How will he do in 2018? To find out and to play along, come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Saturday, April 14

Oaklawn Park, Race 10, $750,000 Oaklawn Handicap, 6:40 p.m. ET

#4 Untrapped: He was on a golden rail, sitting behind a hot pace in the Razorback Handicap two races ago. It looked certain that once he got clear, he’d draw off. But jockey Ricardo Santana made the mistake of pulling him off the rail and, ultimately, Untrapped couldn’t find clear running room between horses. In the meantime, Hawaakom rode the golden rail to victory. Last time out, Untrapped had a similarly tough time in the stretch. He looked loaded turning for home but got jostled around as Hedge Fund came out and then ducked back to the rail, further forcing Untrapped to come back out. He seems like he’s a fast pace and clean trip away from winning well. Everything about the way he’s running indicates he’ll enjoy stretching out to a mile and an eighth too. In fact, his last win came at a mile and an eighth in the Oklahoma Derby when he beat Battle of Midway. Seems like he’s turned a corner this year and is a better horse. Could run a really big one on Saturday. 

$10 Budget
$2 win and place on #4 Untrapped ($4)
$1 exacta key box 4 with 1,10,11 ($6) 

$25 Budget
$4 win and place on #4 Untrapped ($12)
$1 exacta key box 4 with 1,9,10,11 ($8)
$1 trifecta box 4,10,11 ($6)

$50 Budget
$8 win and place on #4 Untrapped ($24)
$1 exacta key box 4 with 1,7,9,10,11 ($10)
$1 trifecta box 4,10,11 ($6)
$1 exacta 4 with all ($10)

Oaklawn Park, Race 11, $1 million Arkansas Derby, 7:18 p.m. ET

#5 Solomini (2-1): This horse turned in an extremely strong effort of off a three-month layoff last time out in the Rebel Stakes. Yes, he finished second to Magnum Moon but you’ve got to believe that Solomini wasn’t totally cranked up for a maximum effort, knowing he would have two starts before the ultimate goal of the Kentucky Derby. What’s most encouraging about Solomini is that he continued to battle in the lane, despite getting shut off on the rail and running very greenly late. He’s been working extremely well coming out of the Rebel, including a :59 4/5 work at five furlongs two weeks ago that was the second best of 81 workers that day. This is a horse who has hung with the likes of Bolt d’Oro and McKinzie, and I’m not sure he’s even figured it all out yet. Solomini has a ton of upside and I’d expect a maximum effort on Saturday.

$10 Budget
$5 to win on #5 Solomini ($5)
$2 exacta 5 with 2,6 ($4)
$1 exacta 6 with 5 ($1)

$25 Budget
$10 to win on #5 Solomini ($10)
$4 exacta 5 with 2,6 ($8)
$2 exacta 2,6,7 with 5 ($6)

$50 Budget
$20 to win on #5 Solomini ($20)
$6 exacta 5 with 2,6 ($12)
$2 exacta 2,6,7 with 5 ($6)
$4 trifecta 5 with 6 with 2,3,7 ($12)

2018 ROI: -$402.95