Tips for Evaluating Maidens Dropping in Class

Tips
Eclipse Sportswire

A class drop is always an important factor in handicapping a race. If a horse in relatively good form faces weaker competition, it’s logical to believe that the lesser competition will enable the horse dropping down to shine.

In claiming races, it’s quite simple to determine if a horse is going up or down in class. Yet sometimes there can be too much of a good thing. If a horse takes a huge and perplexing drop in claiming price, which means the owner will get dramatically less money if the horse is claimed, it is fair to wonder if there’s something amiss with the horse and the drop is a fire sale as opposed to a savvy move in search of a victory.

There is, however, one powerful instance when a big class drop makes sense and should not be ignored.

You’ll find it when a horse drops from a maiden special weight race into a maiden claimer. What this means is that a horse is exiting races against prized horses whose owners do not want to lose them and place a claiming tag on them, and now it’s facing lesser horses who can be acquired by anyone willing to pay their claiming price.

A great example of the class difference between a maiden special weight (MSW) race and a maiden claimer came in the second race at Belmont Park on Sept. 16.

It was a $40,000 maiden claimer on the turf with a field of 10. Two of the starters were making their career debuts and six were coming off races in a maiden claimer.

That left just two horses. One was Brianbakescookies, who made his last 11 starts in MSW races. In his last three starts, Brianbakescookies was a tad overcooked, finishing second twice and third once. The other was Krampus, who made his career debut in a MSW race and was now running for a claiming tag after finishing seventh.

Not surprisingly, Brianbakescookies was a tasty nugget in the race, going off as the 7-5 favorite.

Krampus, meanwhile, was the 5-1 third choice.

That difference in their odds made Krampus a bit more appealing at the mutuel windows and those who wagered on him were rewarded with a $13 win price for a neck victory over, yes, Brianbakescookies.

Even more importantly, if you combined the two dropdowns in the exacta, you collected $34.60 on a $2 wager that capitalized on a handicapping angle that can take you to the top of the “class.”

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