all in Tips

OK, with the official start of winter another week closer, let’s move on to part two of our look at trainers’ stats at some upcoming winter meets.

In this story, we’ll discuss Santa Anita Park and Oaklawn Park, starting at Santa Anita.

If you look at the statistics for the last winter meet at “The Great Race Place” and compare it to the results of the last three years, there are different takes.

For the most part, longshots are coming off poor efforts, and yet, some of these horses manage to rebound from that weak race and turn in a dramatically better performance that lands them in the winner’s circle.

The key part of this process is deciding which bad races are telling and indicative of another dismal showing, and which are simply glitches.

There’s no 100 percent foolproof system, but there are times when there are plausible reasons for a bad race.

Judging the talents in an unraced horse can be a very risky business. In some cases, when a top trainer like Bob Baffert, Chad Brown, or Todd Pletcher sends out a firster, that’s reason enough to include the horse in the mix.

A neat way to start an argument among handicappers is to say there’s a “track bias.” Immediately, you’ll no doubt find agreement in some corners and then hear from others who insist it’s just an exaggeration.

And in many cases, there certainly is room for debate. Most days do not feature a card in which all nine horses win in front-running fashion or nine favorites falter while racing on the lead.

There’s an abundance of history and statistics that can be helpful when handicappers study the Breeders’ Cup races. Except for one.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint is the 14th and latest addition to the slate of Breeders’ Cup stakes.

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