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Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016. Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Saturday, December 23

Gulfstream Park, Race 7, 3:05 p.m. ET 

#4 Shana Tov (12-1): So, it’s no secret we’ve been ice cold here on Dan’s Double lately. After a very strong 2016, and treading water most of this year, our recent run of losers has our 2017 ROI looking rough. The best remedy might just be a massive hunch play — which I’ll also back up with some data. Shana Tova, Hebrew for “Happy New Year” makes his first start here for trainer Ralph Nicks. While Nicks hasn’t had a great meet (I can relate), he historically does really well with 2-year-old sprinters, winning 26 percent over the past five years and 59 percent in the money (thank you, STATS Race Lens). The horse also has a bit of “win early” pedigree; he’s a half-brother to three starters who all won on debut or in their second start, included stakes-placed Ire and Flashy Campaign.

$10 Budget

$2 win, place and show on #4 Shana Tova ($6)

$1 exacta 4,6 over 2,4,6 ($4)

$25 Budget  

$4 win, place and show on #4 Shana Tova ($12)

$1 exacta box 2,4,6 ($6)

$1 trifecta 4,6 with 4,6 with 1,2,8 ($6)

$50 Budget 

$6 win, place and show on #4 Shana Tova ($18)

$1 exacta box 2,4,6 ($6)

$1 trifecta 2,4,6 with 2,4,6 with 1,2,4,6,8,9 ($24)

Gulfstream Park, Race 8, 3:35 p.m. ET 

#1 Earth (8-1): Love the cutback and Earth should also enjoy the class relief, dropping back into allowance company after a respectable effort in the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes over the summer at Saratoga. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won with 28 percent of his starters off of 61 to 180 day layoffs on the Gulfstream turf over the past two years. Without much other obvious speed drawn in and with Earth drawing the rail, I would expect him to get to the lead with minimal pressure. Young rider Nik Juarez has shown time and time again that he can get to the front with a horse, slow the pace down and save enough for the stretch. Biggest challenger here will be Earth’s barn mate #7 Barbarossa, who I’d expect to be relaxing just off of him throughout.

$10 Budget  

$2 win, place and show on #1 Earth ($6)

$2 exacta box 1,7 ($4)

$25 Budget  

$2 win, place and show on #1 Earth ($6)

$3 exacta box 1,7 ($6)

$1 trifecta 1,7 with 1,4,7 with 1,4,7,8,12 ($12)

$50 Budget

$5 win, place and show on #1 Earth ($15)

$5 exacta box 1,7 ($10)

$1 exacta box 1,4,7 ($6)

$1 trifecta 1,4,7 with 1,4,7 with 1,4,7,8,12 ($18)

2017 ROI: -$1,225