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Saturday, Sept. 23
#3 Actress: If you want to play it safe, you’ll have a hard time playing against your likely 3-year-old female champion #9 Abel Tasman. Her Equibase Speed Figure and Beyer Speed Figure in the Acorn Stakes, alone, is better than anything posted by any of her challengers here. That said, assuming her big year-end target in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and that she’s been off since July, perhaps Abel Tasman isn’t fully cranked for in this spot. Hence, let’s take a shot with #3 Actress.
Actress is cutting back to a more suitable distance here, after hanging in the stretch last out in the Alabama Stakes. If you go back two races to the Delaware Oaks, she rallied impressively into a fairly slow pace (and uncontested pacesetter) to finish a close third – and she brushed late in the race, which slowed down some of her momentum. The pace should be honest, and the faster they go up front here, the better off Actress will be.
$2 win, place and show on #3 Actress ($6)
$1 exacta 3,9 over 2,3,9 ($4)
$4 win, place and show on #3 Actress ($12)
$1 exacta box 2,3,9 ($6)
$.50 trifecta 3,9 over 2,3,9 over 2,3,5,8,9 ($6)
$7 win, place and show on #3 Actress ($21)
$2 exacta box 2,3,9 ($12)
$.1 trifecta 3,9 over 2,3,9 over 2,3,5,6,8,9 ($16)
#1 Timeline: This horse went off as the favorite in the betfair.com Haskell Invitational in late July but he’ll likely be overlooked in this spot on Saturday. He still has a lot to prove, but Timeline has plenty of excuses coming off of a poor fifth-place finish in the Haskell. He didn’t break well from the gate, he was eager to go early, and then steadied going into the turn. The bottom line was that jockey Javier Castellano couldn’t get Timeline to settle down early, and ultimately the horse overextended himself before the real running started in the late stages of the race.
I like that Timeline draws the rail and should be able to snag the early lead, despite early presser Outplay sitting just to his outside. If Timeline does manage to shake loose and set soft splits, look out.
$2 win, place and show on #1 Timeline ($6)
$1 exacta 1,4 over 1,4,5 ($4)
$4 win, place and show on #1 Timeline ($12)
$4 exacta box 1,4 ($8)
$1 exacta 1,4 over 1,4,5 ($4)
$10 win, place and show on #1 Timeline ($12)
$7 exacta box 1,4 ($14)
$1 exacta box 1,4,5 ($6)
2017 ROI: +$294.80