America’s Best Racing and handicapper (and avid gambler) Monique Vág team up to provide horseplayers with their best bets of the weekend in a regular feature blog that will run on Fridays.

For some posts, Vág will try to identify a longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet. She also will look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or occasionally try to spot a nice opportunity for other wagers.

This Weekend’s Bets

Best Bet

Churchill Downs, Race 9, Golden Rod Stakes, 4:57 p.m. ET

#6 Monomoy Girl: I hate the short price on this filly, however there’s no denying how impressive she’s been over her first three career races. In her first start on dirt last time out in the Rags to Riches Stakes, she completely dominated the opposition and this is the surface I think she’ll race with confidence on here. With many contenders in here trying dirt for the first time or getting equipment changes, I find myself coming back to this filly who looks like she will be forwardly placed. I anticipate Monomoy Girl leads every step of the way.

Longshot Play

Churchill Downs, Race 11, Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, 5:56 p.m. ET

#13 Lone Sailor: Drawing a post position this far outside usually makes a horse unbettable, but I think with a clean break that solidifying position outside isn’t always the worst as you’ll almost surely have clear racing room to rally in deep stretch. I like how he was competitive when third in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. He started slow but responded nicely when asked. The same can be said in his most recent effort where he just ran out of racetrack while closing late. The price is enormous on this colt, and I think he’s more than capable of hitting the board.

Best Bet

Del Mar, Race 7, Hollywood Derby, 6:30 p.m. ET

#4 Sharp Samurai: He’ll be super tough to beat today and will go off nowhere near his morning-line odds at post time and that’s for good reason. He’s won four straight against stakes company, including three graded stakes, and has looked entirely dominant doing so. I truly think he can win from anywhere, although I do believe his best spot to be positioned is just off the early pace. It’s tough to choose against a horse entering in career-best form off multiple graded stakes victories.

Sunday, Nov. 26

Longshot Play

Churchill Downs, Race 10, 5:27 p.m. ET

#10 McCormick: His last two efforts did not look good, but I view them more as him being entered against much tougher competition (both graded stakes) at a distance that was not ideal. I do think he’s best suited at or near one mile, and I think he’s taking a logical drop in class to the optional claiming ranks as connections hope to get him back in the win column. The outside post should help with some inflated odds at post time, and I think he’ll be much more competitive against easier competition today.