The 51st running of the Grade 1, $300,000 Gamely Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday features multiple Grade 1 stakes winner Lady Eli, who returned off a five-month layoff in April when a head shy of victory in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes. Lined up to face Lady Eli are four graded stakes winners and a potential up-and-coming star in the division. Leading the group of stakes winners is Avenge, last seen in the fall when finishing third, a length behind Lady Eli, in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf following a win in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive Stakes. Goodyearforroses won the Grade 2 Santa Ana Stakes in March and fits at the level, while Mokat finished second in the Grade 2 Royal Heroine Stakes last month and won the Grade 2 San Clemente Handicap last July. Pretty Girl won a Group 1 stakes in her native Argentina back in 2014 and is improving. Rounding out the field is September Stars, who has won two races in a row and who steps into stakes for her third start since importing from England.
Avenge is the only horse in the field who likes to lead early and that provides her an edge in that she can control the tempo from the start. Avenge reeled off three straight wins on turf starting last July and ending with a win in the Rodeo Drive Stakes in October. In her next start, Avenge set a very fast early pace in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf and held very well for third in a 14-horse field, earning a career-best 118 Equibase Speed Figure. In training for her 2017 debut for more than a month and with a very sharp five furlong workout coming into the race, there is little question Avenge is as fit as she was in the fall. Additionally, research from Stats Race Lens tells us trainer Richard Mandella is exceptional at bringing horses back from layoffs in these situations; over the last five years he has won with five of 14 starters returning from six months off or more in stakes around two turns. With the ground-saving rail also in her favor and Santa Anita leading rider Flavien Prat in the saddle, Avenge could be tough to catch, and to beat, in this year's Gamely Stakes.
September Stars can match Lady Eli's late kick and as she is going to be higher odds she may offer another betting opportunity. Since returning from six months off and making her U.S. debut in March, September Stars has won two straight races at the mile and one-eighth turf trip of the Gamely. She improved to a strong 105 figure in her most recent start and ran the last eighth of a mile in 11.2 seconds when rallying from sixth at the top of the stretch. Gary Stevens has been aboard for both of her wins and rides back so we should expect this filly to be charging home down the middle of the track once again.
Lady Eli makes her second start following five months off so she should be even more physically fit than when coming up a head short of winning last month in the Jenny Wiley Stakes, earning a 110 figure in the process. Before the rest, Lady Eli earned a near-career-best 120 figure when a nose short in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf. With seven wins in 10 career starts and having earned a career-best 122 figure last August when second in the Ballston Spa Stakes, as well as Irad Ortiz Jr. coming in from New York to ride, Lady Eli should once again be in the thick of the action on the wire.
In a race in which all six runners can't be counted out completely the other three are worth commenting on. Pretty Girl improved to a career-best 109 figure when beaten two lengths in the Royal Heroine Stakes last month and might benefit from the jockey change to North American leading rider Mike Smith. Goodyearforroses could only manage fifth in the Jenny Wiley last month but won the Santa Ana before that with a career-best 109 figure. Mokat earned a career-best 111 figure when second in the Royal Heroine and may be returning to the form shown last summer when taking the San Clemente Stakes.
My selections:
Avenge
September Stars
Lady Eli
You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Santa Anita at Equibase.com.
Pick 4
3/6/11/12/13/14-4/6-2-6
3/6/11/12/13/14-4/6-2-6
$19
Pick 5
3-3/6/11/12/13/14-4/6-2-6
3-3/6/11/12/13/14-4/6-2-6
$100
Pick 4
3/6/11/12/13/14-4/6-2-6
3/6/11/12/13/14-4/6-2-6
$19
Pick 5
3-3/6/11/12/13/14-4/6-2-6
3-3/6/11/12/13/14-4/6-2-6
$100
