The 2024 Keeneland spring meet is underway after an exciting opening weekend, and one of the signature races of the track’s calendar is slated for Friday, April 12, when the $600,000 Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes will be held for the 36th time.
The one-mile turf race for horses ages 4 and older drew a field of eight, seven of which are stakes winners. The headliner is unquestionably #4 Master of The Seas, who is on track to make his first start since winning the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF Nov. 4 at Santa Anita Park. The 6-year-old Dubawi gelding, owned and bred by Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum’s Godolphin operation, has a career record of eight wins, three seconds, and two thirds from 16 starts, including seven stakes victories. He finished second by a nose last fall in the Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes at Keeneland, his first appearance on this course, and then rebounded to rally furiously through the stretch at Santa Anita and win the BC Mile by the same margin.
Master of The Seas is the 4-5 morning-line favorite, and justifiably so with five wins, three seconds, and one third in 10 starts at this mile distance on turf. He has, as noted above, shown an affinity for Keeneland’s course and has also displayed the ability to handle turf courses that have been softened by moisture. The weather forecast in Lexington, Ky., calls for between one and two inches of rain in the area in the two days prior to April 12, so there’s a very good chance that the field will be competing on “off” going come early Friday evening. Master of The Seas has already posted a tune-up workout at Keeneland for Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby and should be ready to roll in his comeback with William Buick in the saddle.
Of course, that doesn’t mean he is invincible. In fact, there are at three opponents I think have an outsider’s chance at pulling the upset, ranging in morning-line odds from 9-2 to 20-1.
#9 Integration (9-2) was arguably the best U.S.-based 3-year-old turf male in training last year based on a perfect 3-for-3 record, including two stakes wins, to start his career for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. He returned for his first start at 4 in the 1/ST Bet Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes Jan. 27 at Gulfstream Park and finished fifth of 12 runners after saving ground and then angling out for a mild rally in the 1 1/8-mile race. He was only 1 ¾ lengths behind winner Warm Heart and should move forward Friday in his second start of the year. Integration probably prefers a bit more distance than one mile, but first-time rider Frankie Dettori should be able to keep him close enough to the pace and in good position to flash the sizzling come-from-behind kick he showed last fall.
The horse I think has the best chance of upsetting Master of The Seas sits at 10-1 on the morning line and is the other Godolphin homebred trained by Appleby in the field: #3 Naval Power. This 4-year-old Teofilo gelding made five starts at age 2 in 2022, all in his home country of England, and won four of them, including two stakes. He then shipped to Dubai and won a listed stakes in January 2023 but was not seen in competition again until February 2024, when he returned in the Group 2 Singspiel Stakes at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. In his first start in 13 months, Naval Power rated off the pace in a full field of the one-turn, 1 1/8-mile race and angled out entering the lane. He closed resolutely and actually had to steady briefly outside of a wavering opponent, but then straightened out and finished strong to win by two lengths. That win came on a turf course rated as good, and Naval Power’s 2023 win came on a course rated as slow. Like stablemate Master of The Seas, this one has had a maintenance workout for Appleby and I am betting he’s primed for an upset.
The final win contender I’ll use is #5 Kubrick, rated as a 20-1 longshot on the morning line. Another Dubawi colt, this 4-year-old made four starts at age 2 and two starts at age 3 in France, winning twice including a Group 3 stakes back in 2022 on soft turf. His last start overseas came on May 14 of last year in the Group 1 French Two Thousand Guineas, where he finished seventh, and he did not race again until March 1 when he made his U.S. debut in a one-mile allowance-optional claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs. Kubrick won that one-mile race going away and now takes a big step up in class for top-shelf connections: owner Peter Brant, trainer Chad Brown, and jockey Flavien Prat.
I’m going to try to turn a decent profit using a $40 dollar bankroll with the following bets: a straight $10 win bet on #3 Naval Power, a 50-cent trifecta box using the above-discussed foursome, and then a 50-cent trifecta part wheel bet where two of my main four contenders must finish first or second and any one of them or #2 Emmanuel (8-1) must finish third. Todd Pletcher-trained Emmanuel won his first start of 2024 impressively six weeks ago when taking the Grade 3, 1 1/16-mile Canadian Turf Stakes at Gulfstream Park and overall has won seven of 13 starts. He prefers firm turf, which I don’t think he’ll get Friday, but he also projects as potentially the lone speed under Eclipse Award-winning rider Irad Ortiz Jr., and I think he very well could lead this group most of the way and hang on late to finish third.
What to say at the betting windows or to keystroke in the ADW field:
Keeneland, Race 9, $10 to win on #3 ($10)
Keeneland, Race 9, 50-cent trifecta box, #s 3,4,5,8 ($12)
Keeneland, Race 9, 50-cent trifecta part wheel, #s 3,4,5,8 with 3,4,5,8, with 2,3,4,5,8 ($18)
Weather update (April 11, 2024): Constant rain has indeed inundated Lexington over the past two days, ensuring a very soft course for the Maker’s Mark Stakes at Keeneland on Friday if it is kept on turf. One starter - #7 Du Jour – did not ship in from California, and according to Daily Racing Form reports more might scratch from the Maker’s Mark due to the conditions. I plan on adjusting my betting strategy if six or less horses run in the Maker’s Mark. I’ll make a $20 win bet on #3 Naval Power, a $6 exacta box #3 Naval Power and #4 Master of The Seas, and a $4 exacta box #3 Naval Power and #5 Kubrick if the field is reduced, sticking to European-bred runners.
Pick 3
KEE TURF P3 10-14-4
KEE TURF P3 10-14-4
$51
Superfecta
4-3-8-6
4-3-8-6
$8
Pick 3
KEE TURF P3 10-14-4
KEE TURF P3 10-14-4
$51
Superfecta
4-3-8-6
4-3-8-6
$8
