The purse for the 150th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve May 4 at Churchill Downs fittingly has been raised to $5 million. Twenty-two horses entered and 20 are expected to run, led by Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa winner Fierceness and Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner Sierra Leone. Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino winner Resilience is another colt exiting a win in a top Derby prep race. The elite competition doesn’t stop there as Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold, Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom, Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks winner Endlessly, and Grade 3 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby winner Domestic Product all hope to run the best races of their careers and make their mark on history. Grade 1 Arkansas Derby runner-up Just Steel is another horse that’s proven at this top level.
Ten of the other 13 contenders enter the Derby off second-, third-, or fourth-place efforts in the major preps. T O Password and Forever Young, the latter winner of the Group 2 UAE Derby Presented by Atlantis The Royal in his most recent start, are undefeated in seven races combined through their careers and will attempt to be the first Japanese-bred horses to wear the garland of roses.
Before providing my list of top contenders and the reasoning behind those selections, it is important to mention what factors are more, and less, important in drawing lines in the sand to help separate these top athletes in terms of their probability to succeed on Kentucky Derby day.
Some rules are made to be broken, while others are not:
With few exceptions, in the last 20 years of Kentucky Derby history, horses who finish first or second in their most recent top prep race have an edge, and that is a rule which in my opinion is very valid. Those races consist of the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Arkansas Derby, and Blue Grass Stakes.
Not on that list are the Louisiana Derby and Tampa Bay Derby, which in recent years have been run six to eight weeks before the Kentucky Derby. As compared with prep races run three to five weeks before the Kentucky Derby, having additional time off has proven to make it more difficult for a horse exiting the Louisiana Derby or Tampa Bay Derby to win the Kentucky Derby. In fact, those two races have only produced four Kentucky Derby winners in the past 20 years. Two other domestic prep races, the Jeff Ruby Steaks and the Lexington Stakes, have produced three next-out Kentucky Derby winners in the last quarter century. Therefore, the weight given to horses coming out of these four prep races – even the winners of those races – has to be less than the weight given to the top-two finishers in the five major prep races mentioned above. Additionally, no horse that won the UAE Derby or its last race in Japan has run well in the Kentucky Derby.
Improvement through the spring is important:
Another important factor to consider is how horses have improved, or not improved, in the spring of their 3-year-old season. Thoroughbreds are athletes and should be getting stronger physically, and therefore faster, during their second season of racing. Although handicapping most races (including the Derby) is more art than science, there is a way to determine these patterns of improvement and hopefully project them to the winner’s circle on the first Saturday in May. The way we do this is by using speed figures: in this case Equibase Speed Figures, which make it easier to compare horses that have run on different tracks and surfaces.
How the race may be run is significant:
A final and very important factor involves how we estimate the early pace in this year’s 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby, specifically the pace for the first half-mile to three-quarters of a mile. The time of those early fractions can be significant, but just as significant is how many horses will try to assume the lead early in the race. In 2022, there were four horses vying for the lead, resulting in an opening quarter-mile that was impossibly fast (:21.78) for a 1 ¼-mile race and a half-mile (:45.36) that was much faster than average. Those swift fractions helped Rich Strike to post the massive upset as he rallied from 18th in the early stages. Last year, Mage rallied to win from 16th and cut into fractions of :22.35 for the opening quarter-mile and :45.73 for the half-mile. The opposite occurred in 2021, when first-place finisher Medina Spirit (since disqualified) set a slower opening quarter-mile fraction of :23.09 and ran the first half-mile in :46.70. Similarly, 2020 Derby pacesetter Authentic led through a half-mile in :46.41 and was able to hold on for the victory.
In this year’s Kentucky Derby, Dornoch gets the inside post (rail) in the starting gate, and it’s important to keep in mind that his three wins from October through March all came after he set the early pace. Knowing the skill of his jockey Luis Saez, we can expect Dornoch to aggressively be sent to the lead in order to get ahead of any horses to his outside that might want to angle in and save ground. Track Phantom earned three wins in a row from November through January when leading from the start before posting second- and fourth-place efforts, and in those final two races he led from the start until one-eighth of a mile to run. Track Phantom adds blinkers for the Kentucky Derby, which normally causes a horse to show early speed. Although his trainer, Steve Asmussen, stated Track Phantom doesn’t need the lead to be successful, the evidence says otherwise. Another contender, Japan’s T O Password, led from start to finish when winning the Fukuryu Stakes in his most recent race. At the least, those three should battle for the early lead from the start of the Kentucky Derby and possibly run as fast in the opening half-mile as the Derby was run in 2022 and 2023, with all of them eventually tiring from their efforts.
Then there’s Fierceness, the morning-line Kentucky Derby favorite, who won the Florida Derby by 13 ½ lengths in his most recent race. Fierceness led from start to finish in the Florida Derby, and in two of his other four career starts he was also forwardly placed. Fierceness pressed the pacesetter in second last fall when before taking command and winning the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, and he finished third in the Holy Bull Stakes in February after staking the pace in third for the opening half-mile before making the lead briefly and then tiring in the stretch. However, even though Fierceness has shown the ability to relax off the pacesetter, given that he draws post position 17 in the Derby starting gate, it is a must that three-time Kentucky Derby-winning jockey John Velazquez will need to ask his horse for early speed in order to get good position going into the first turn. Assuming Dornoch will be sent for the lead and gets inside position on Fierceness, and so do Track Phantom and possibly T O Password, this may result in one of two things. Either Fierceness gets caught wide into the first turn, or, if John Velazquez can’t get him to relax and his competitive juices kick in, he may end up battling for the lead through fast early fractions. It is also possible a few other horses will use some early speed to get good position in the first quarter-mile, including Catalytic, Just a Touch, West Saratoga and Stronghold.
Main contender analysis:
In the Blue Grass Stakes, Sierra Leone ran the third-fastest race of all the horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby, earning a 107 Equibase Speed Figure. That was a strong improvement off his 3-year-old debut, a win in the Risen Star Stakes in February where he earned a 98 speed figure. As a 2-year-old and in only the second start of his career in the Remsen Stakes last November, Sierra Leone made a sweeping move on the far turn from seventh with a quarter-mile to run. He made the lead in the stretch and looked like a winner until a bit of inexperience got to him and he idled waiting for a challenge, which allowed pacesetter Dornoch to come back and beat him by a nose. When Sierra Leone returned as a 3-year-old in February, trainer Chad Brown added blinkers. The result of that change in equipment, along with maturity, led Sierra Leone to complete a visually impressive win in the Risen Star with the same kind of wide and powerful move on the far turn from seventh as he had shown in the Remsen, this time continuing to rally and win by a half-length. In the Blue Grass Stakes, Sierra Leone was even more impressive as he rallied from seventh past a group of horses on the turn, then lengthened his stride to go past the remaining three horses in the last eighth of a mile. He’s a very smart horse, and when given his cue to speed up, he does just that. In the Kentucky Derby, this kind of on-command acceleration should allow Sierra Leone to quickly overtake a lot of horses on the far turn just as many are tiring, enabling him to be in a good position to outfinish any remaining horses in the final portion of the race to win.
Just Steel earned the highest last-race Equibase figure in this year’s Kentucky Derby field, 112, although he ran second in the Arkansas Derby. The winner of that race was Muth, who is not running in the Kentucky Derby but would be among the morning-line favorites if he did. It’s worth recalling that Mage, who won the Kentucky Derby last year, came into the run for the roses after running second to Forte in the Florida Derby – and when morning-line favorite Forte had to be withdrawn hours before the race due to an injury, Mage capitalized by winning the 149th Kentucky Derby. Although Just Steel has won just twice in 11 races, he has finished second in four other races. Better still, three of those runner-up efforts have come this year in Derby prep races. Just Steel doesn’t have the ability to accelerate in the same way Sierra Leone does – and he doesn’t have the early speed Fierceness has – but this colt tries hard nearly every time he runs. As a son of 2018 Derby winner Justify, there is little doubt Just Steel can run well at the mile-and-a-quarter trip of the Kentucky Derby, and although he’s likely to be somewhat overlooked by many bettors, that would be a mistake as he’s trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the 88-year-old Racing Hall of Fame member who has won the Kentucky Derby four times to date.
Fierceness may have his work cut out for him based on the early pace scenario discussed earlier, but based on how easily and powerfully he won the Florida Derby, and the 110 figure earned in that race (which is the second-best last-out Equibase figure in this field), he must be respected as a contender. Fierceness proved he belongs at the top level of his age group with a 6 ¼-length win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall, where he also earned a 110 Equibase Speed Figure. He returned to start his 3-year-old campaign in February and disappointed badly when finishing third in the Holy Bull Stakes, but Fierceness did have somewhat of an excuse as he was bumped on both sides at the start and then moved up fast, which perhaps required him to use too much energy. As discussed above, he recovered to press the pace in the Holy Bull and took a brief lead in the far turn, but tired late in his first race in three months. Based on his record to date, Fierceness appears to be the kind of horse which, if he has trouble in a race, just refuses to fire. This was the case in the Champagne Stakes last October when he lunged forward at the start and was sixth for the opening half-mile and then faded to seventh. He’s likely more mature now and his Hall of Fame trainer, Todd Pletcher, has won the Kentucky Derby twice, so Pletcher likely has schooled his horse to recover mentally if things don’t go his way. If so, that means Fierceness might be very tough in this year’s Derby.
Resilience, like Sierra Leone, has been a much better horse since adding blinkers. He wore them for the first time in the Wood Memorial Stakes on April 6, resulting in a career-best 103 figure, a 10-point improvement off the 93 figure earned when he finished a fading fourth in the Risen Star Stakes after running second early in the stretch. In both of his career wins, Resilience rallied from third on the far turn to get the lead and held it nicely in the stretch. As a son of Into Mischief, Resilience should relish the Derby’s 1 ¼-mile distance, and he’s managed by another Hall of Fame trainer in Bill Mott. Mott’s Country House ran brilliantly when rallying from ninth to finish second in the 2019 Derby, and that colt was subsequently declared the winner when Maximum Security was disqualified for interference. Given that Resilience is on a pattern to produce another career-best effort, he is another horse we should think about when considering our wagers in the 150th Kentucky Derby.
Endlessly might be discounted by many bettors as his owner and trainer originally stated they would bypass the Kentucky Derby after winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks since the colt had only run on grass or all-weather tracks in his career. Now that his connections have decided to run in the Derby, one might first think that they have succumbed to “Derby fever” – but a closer look reveals that Endlessly fits with some of the top contenders in the field. He’s won five of six races, the last two coming at a distance of 1 1/8 miles, and Endlessly appears capable of handling an extra eighth of a mile in the Kentucky Derby. His sire, Oscar Performance, is well known for siring top runners on grass. However, Oscar Performance has also sired eight horses which have won on conventional dirt – and one of them (Tumbarumba) is a multiple stakes winner. In the Jeff Ruby Steaks, Endlessly made a strong rally from seventh on the far turn to strike in front in the stretch before drawing off. His Equibase Speed Figure of 99 earned in the Jeff Ruby was a bit lower than the 101 earned in his prior race, a win in the El Camino Real Derby, but overall the Jeff Ruby win was more visually impressive. There’s been only one winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks after it moved to an all-weather track to win the Kentucky Derby in his next start, and that was Animal Kingdom in 2011 (Rich Strike finished third in the 2022 Jeff Ruby before pulling off a shocker in the Derby). Like Endlessly, Animal Kingdom had only competed on turf and all-weather surfaces before trying dirt in the Kentucky Derby, and Animal Kingdom also had a sire (Leroidesanimaux) who was a turf standout regarded as a sire of turf progeny. To further demonstrate that this colt may run well on dirt, Endlessly recently put in a strong half-mile workout on that surface at Churchill Downs, and he retains the services of jockey Umberto Rispoli, who has been aboard for both of the colt’s wins this year.
Just a Touch made only his third career start last month in the Blue Grass Stakes and his first start in a two-turn race. He moved up from second (where he had been positioned since the start) to make the lead with an eighth of a mile to run before being passed by the more experienced Sierra Leone. Just a Touch continued on in fine fashion to finish nearly four lengths in front of the third-place horse, Epic Ride, and earned a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure. This lightly raced colt gained valuable experience in the Blue Grass as he prepares for his second start around two turns on May 4. Notably, he’s sired by 2018 Kentucky Derby winner Justify, and Just a Touch deserves consideration as a contender.
The rest of the Kentucky Derby field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Catalytic (90), Catching Freedom (98), Domestic Product (92), Dornoch (102), Epic Ride (100), Forever Young (110), Grand Mo the First (91), Honor Marie (97), Mugatu (96), Mystik Dan (110), T O Password (98), Society Man (99), Stronghold (99), Track Phantom (100), and West Saratoga (93).
Win contenders in preference order:
Sierra Leone
Just Steel
Fierceness
Resilience
Endlessly
Just a Touch
You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis (about 10 pages in all), including more detailed comments on Kentucky Derby entrants, as well as betting recommendations for all the races at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, Saturday May 4, at Equibase.com.
Pick 3
10-5-3
10-5-3
$319
Pick 3
OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY 5-5-3
OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY 5-5-3
$432
Pick 3
3YO 5-2-3
3YO 5-2-3
$18,207
Pick 4
2-10-5-3
2-10-5-3
$18,300
Pick 5
5-2-10-5-3
5-2-10-5-3
$188,958
Pick 5
ALL DIRT 1-10-5-10-3
ALL DIRT 1-10-5-10-3
$87,025
Pick 6
OAKS/DERBY 1/2/4-5-10-10-5-3
OAKS/DERBY 1/2/4-5-10-10-5-3
$81,109
Pick 6
OAKS/DERBY 1/2/4-5-10-10-5-3
OAKS/DERBY 1/2/4-5-10-10-5-3
$289
Pick 6 Jackpot
3-5-2-10-5-3
3-5-2-10-5-3
$345,074
Daily Double
OAKS/DERBY 5-3
OAKS/DERBY 5-3
$118
Daily Double
5-3
5-3
$139
Future Wager
POOL 5 - 25
POOL 5 - 25
$36
Future Wager
POOL 4 - 26
POOL 4 - 26
$45
Future Wager
POOL 2 EX 23-31
POOL 2 EX 23-31
$22,757
Future Wager
POOL 4 EX 26-31
POOL 4 EX 26-31
$501
Future Wager
POOL 1 - 40
POOL 1 - 40
$4
Future Wager
POOL 6 EX 24-28
POOL 6 EX 24-28
$879
Future Wager
OAKS/DERBY DBL 34-25
OAKS/DERBY DBL 34-25
$714
Future Wager
POOL 5 EX 25-30
POOL 5 EX 25-30
$351
Future Wager
POOL 3 EX 40-31
POOL 3 EX 40-31
$123
Future Wager
POOL 1 EX 40-40
POOL 1 EX 40-40
$143
Future Wager
POOL 2 - 23
POOL 2 - 23
$212
Future Wager
POOL 3 - 40
POOL 3 - 40
$7
Future Wager
POOL 6 - 24
POOL 6 - 24
$73
Superfecta
3-2-11-4
3-2-11-4
$8,254
Super High Five
3-2-11-4-10
3-2-11-4-10
$316,920
Trifecta
3-2-11
3-2-11
$557
Pick 3
10-5-3
10-5-3
$319
Pick 3
OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY 5-5-3
OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY 5-5-3
$432
Pick 3
3YO 5-2-3
3YO 5-2-3
$18,207
Pick 4
2-10-5-3
2-10-5-3
$18,300
Pick 5
5-2-10-5-3
5-2-10-5-3
$188,958
Pick 5
ALL DIRT 1-10-5-10-3
ALL DIRT 1-10-5-10-3
$87,025
Pick 6
OAKS/DERBY 1/2/4-5-10-10-5-3
OAKS/DERBY 1/2/4-5-10-10-5-3
$81,109
Pick 6
OAKS/DERBY 1/2/4-5-10-10-5-3
OAKS/DERBY 1/2/4-5-10-10-5-3
$289
Pick 6 Jackpot
3-5-2-10-5-3
3-5-2-10-5-3
$345,074
Daily Double
OAKS/DERBY 5-3
OAKS/DERBY 5-3
$118
Daily Double
5-3
5-3
$139
Future Wager
POOL 5 - 25
POOL 5 - 25
$36
Future Wager
POOL 4 - 26
POOL 4 - 26
$45
Future Wager
POOL 2 EX 23-31
POOL 2 EX 23-31
$22,757
Future Wager
POOL 4 EX 26-31
POOL 4 EX 26-31
$501
Future Wager
POOL 1 - 40
POOL 1 - 40
$4
Future Wager
POOL 6 EX 24-28
POOL 6 EX 24-28
$879
Future Wager
OAKS/DERBY DBL 34-25
OAKS/DERBY DBL 34-25
$714
Future Wager
POOL 5 EX 25-30
POOL 5 EX 25-30
$351
Future Wager
POOL 3 EX 40-31
POOL 3 EX 40-31
$123
Future Wager
POOL 1 EX 40-40
POOL 1 EX 40-40
$143
Future Wager
POOL 2 - 23
POOL 2 - 23
$212
Future Wager
POOL 3 - 40
POOL 3 - 40
$7
Future Wager
POOL 6 - 24
POOL 6 - 24
$73
Superfecta
3-2-11-4
3-2-11-4
$8,254
Super High Five
3-2-11-4-10
3-2-11-4-10
$316,920
Trifecta
3-2-11
3-2-11
$557
