Promising 2-year-olds emerge every summer at Saratoga Race Course and Ted Noffey delivered a pair of special efforts at the meet, saving the best for last with an 8 ½-length romp in the $300,000 Spendthrift Farm Hopeful Stakes on the Sept. 1 closing day card.

While the Hopeful Stakes is not a “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series race for the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Oct. 31 at Del Mar, it has been historically impactful. Four Hopeful Stakes winners, including Chief’s Crown in the inaugural Breeders’ Cup in 1984, went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, most recently Forte in 2022. Let’s take a closer look at Ted Noffey and evaluate his chances to become the fifth.

Accomplishments: Ted Noffey showed ability and maturity in his career debut Aug. 2 at Saratoga when he rallied from fourth in the eight-horse field to win by 1 ½ lengths. He was urged along to keep up early, then rated comfortably and responded on cue to take command entering the stretch. The Into Mischief colt, named for owner Spendthrift Farm’s General Manager Ned Toffey, pulled away late once he realized his job was not finished upon taking the lead in a nice debut victory.

Ted Noffey looked even better in the Hopeful, breaking beautifully from the gate, settling into a comfortable rhythm just outside and behind the pace, and then inhaling pacesetter Soldier N Diplomat entering the stretch. He completed his final eighth of a mile in :12.17 in the seven-furlong race to win by 8 ½ lengths.

“He’s learned from the race before this one, he learned a lot,” winning jockey John Velazquez said. “I see him waiting a little down the lane, so I kind of had to keep his mind on running, but other than that, very well done.”

Speed Figures: Ted Noffey passed the eye test in the Hopeful and also cleared the speed-figure barometer. He improved his Equibase Speed Figure from an 81 for his debut to a 104 in the Hopeful. He likewise boosted his Beyer Speed Figure from a 76 to a 92. It was a fast race for a 2-year-old making his second start.

“[Ted Noffey] really trained well since his debut,” winning trainer Todd Pletcher said. “He trained well going into that but came back and I thought his breezes were quite good. He gave us the feeling he was moving forward.”

Looking Ahead: Stretching out in distance is a question all 2-year-olds face in the summer and fall as they try to move from sprints to races around two turns, like the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The way Ted Noffey finished in the Hopeful with a very fast final eighth of a mile combined with his pedigree – by six-time leading sire Into Mischief (sire of 2025 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner Sovereignty) out of the Old Fashioned mare Streak of Luck, a stakes winner at one mile – leads me to believe he can excel at 1 1/16 miles. Ted Noffey looks like a leading contender for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and I’m enthusiastically buying stock in this promising 2-year-old.