This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they previously were.

In the seventh edition of this blog for the 2025 run for the roses, the focus is on the changing landscape of the 3-year-old male division after the last week of action, highlighted by the $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds and $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park.

HEATING UP

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1. Tiztastic

Last Saturday was an interesting stop on the Kentucky Derby trail as three 3-year-olds I really did not view as bona-fide Kentucky Derby contenders stepped up and punched their tickets to Louisville for the first jewel of the Triple Crown May 3 at Churchill Downs. Leading off is Tiztastic, who had placed three times in four previous graded stakes attempts before his breakthrough victory in the March 22 Louisiana Derby. There is no doubt he benefitted from a well-timed and clean ride under Joel Rosario, but he looked like a colt who relished the 1 3/16-mile distance and delivered his best race to date, earning a career-top 99 Equibase Speed Figure and 95 Beyer Speed Figure. I’m a little skeptical of his chances to win the Kentucky Derby because closers like Tiztastic are dependent upon others to ensure a solid pace and traffic is a major concern in a 20-horse race, but I have no doubt this Steve Asmussen trainee will be picking off horses in the Churchill Downs stretch with a big shot to finish in the top three. Add in the fact that he will have six weeks to rest between races plus a solid foundation of eight starts to date, and I think there is much to like in this late-blooming colt from the first crop of Tiz the Law. Read more about Tiztastic’s Derby chances.

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2. Final Gambit

Trainer Brad Cox said on the BloodHorse Monday podcast he was unsure on the morning entries for the Jeff Ruby Steaks were drawn that Final Gambit would even be included in the main body of the field. Cox said he was making preparations to re-route him to the Rushaway Stakes, which does not offer Kentucky Derby qualifying points, earlier on the same card at Turfway Park. Both horse and trainer were fortunate that he did secure a place in the Jeff Ruby, because in the Turfway stretch Final Gambit looked like he was blasted out of a cannon as he finished with a final quarter-mile in :24.02 and a final eighth of a mile in :11.91 to win by 3 ½ lengths at 15.07-1 odds. A Juddmonte homebred colt by Not This Time, Final Gambit’s previous three races had come against maidens, one on grass and two on the all-weather surface at Turfway. While he had never been worse than third and showed significant ability in a 2 ¼-length win going a mile Feb. 15 at Turfway, Final Gambit was trying stakes competition for the first time while navigating an extra eighth of a mile. He handled both tests with aplomb and earned career-best Equibase (96) and Beyer (90) Speed Figures. His next challenge – if his connections opt for the Kentucky Derby, and it sounds like they are leaning that way – will be much trickier as he would make his first start on a dirt main track in the Kentucky Derby. It’s easy to look at his sire, Not This Time, and his dam’s (mother’s) sire, Tapit, and think that since both were graded stakes winners on dirt Final Gambit should be just fine. But Not This Time has had quite a few nice turf runners and the bottom half of this pedigree definitely slants toward turf. That makes Final Gambit a wild card, albeit a fast and intriguing one with a starting spot in the Derby secured.

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3. Flying Mohawk

Like Jeff Ruby Steaks winner Final Gambit, runner-up Flying Mohawk has never competed in a race on the dirt but has a spot in the Kentucky Derby secured with 50 qualifying points. This will mark the second year in a row that retired Major League Baseball World Series champion Jayson Werth has a starter in the run for the roses should trainer Whit Beckman send Flying Mohawk on to the first jewel of the Triple Crown. Werth’s Two Eight Racing was a part-owner last year of Dornoch, who finished 10^th in the Kentucky Derby but went on to win the Belmont Stakes and NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes. Two Eight Racing owns Flying Mohawk in partnership with Berry Family Racing and Kaleta Racing, and the dark bay or brown colt by 2014 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Karakontie has taken a much different path to Louisville than Dornoch. While Dornoch was a standout on the dirt from the start, Flying Mohawk made his first five starts on the grass, including a pair of dominant wins in his two most recent races on turf. He switched to the all-weather surface at Turfway for the Jeff Ruby and closed powerfully for second after a troubled start. It’s tough to predict which 3-year-olds will handle a surface switch on Kentucky Derby day given there are so many other variables involved, such as a rowdy crowd of 150,0000 and 19 other horses, but Flying Mohawk is another contender who should be passing horses late and doing his best running in deep stretch. Keep in mind, Animal Kingdom used the Turfway path to Kentucky Derby glory in 2011, Rich Strike prepped in the Jeff Ruby before winning the Kentucky Derby in 2022, and Two Phil’s won the Jeff Ruby in 2023 before running second in the Kentucky Derby. Both Jeff Ruby winner Final Gambit and runner-up Flying Mohawk went from completely off the Kentucky Derby radar to securing spots in the field in about a minute and 50 seconds March 22 at Turfway. Amazing how fast things can change!

Also eligible: I continue to be impressed by Louisiana Derby runner-up Chunk of Gold. The distant runner-up in the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes improved his Equibase Speed Figure five points to a 96 when second again in the Louisiana Derby, 2 ¼ lengths behind winner Tiztastic. He seemed to get better with the added distance in the 1 3/16-mile race and he has a bit more tactical speed than the deep closers above: Tiztastic, Final Gambit, and Flying Mohawk. Chunk on Gold could work out a good trip in the Kentucky Derby (with 75 points, his spot is secure) and his odds should be very appealing.

COOLING DOWN

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1. Caldera

We are getting to the point where one start can determine a 3-year-old’s chances to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. And make no mistake, it was the start for Caldera in the Louisiana Derby that cost him any shot at a top three finish and left him on the outside looking in for the Kentucky Derby with only 10 qualifying points. The Sunland Park Derby runner-up stumbled out of the starting gate, was bounced around between horses in the opening yards, and then forced to check behind another runner all before the field raced into the first turn. He then raced within three lengths of a fast pace set by John Hancock and it proved too much adversity to overcome. I really liked his Sunland Park Derby effort and I still believe in Caldera’s talent moving forward, but there is no doubt this was a major blow to the Liam’s Map colt’s chances to qualify for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. The Paulick Report also reported that Caldera “grabbed a quarter” in the race, an injury to the back of the front hoof or foot caused by a horse stepping on itself. It’s fairly common in racing, and the injury is usually minor.

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2. Built

There probably is a very good chance Built has sufficient points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby – he currently ranks 13^th with 45 – but I would have a tough time endorsing him in the 1 ¼-mile classic off a fifth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby. The Gun Runner Stakes winner got away to a solid start and tucked in just behind the pace (albeit a swift one) in the 1 3/16-mile race, saved ground all the way through the backstretch into the final turn, and essentially had a dream trip. He swept past pacesetter John Hancock to take command on the far turn but offered little resistance in the stretch and was passed by four horses, finishing 7 ½ lengths behind winner Tiztastic. The opening quarter-mile in :22.99 almost certainly took a toll on pacesetter John Hancock (more on him below) and those who were near the front, but Built looked poised to win entering the stretch and wound up finishing a spot behind the pacesetter he had passed on the turn. Built is no doubt a talented 3-year-old with a stakes win to his credit and top-three finishes in the Lecomte Stakes and Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes. He also probably has the points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, but I much prefer horses on an upward trajectory when evaluating Derby contenders and Built appears to have taken a step backward.

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3. John Hancock

I was really high on John Hancock entering the Louisiana Derby after he improved to 2-for-2 with a win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and the runner-up from that race, Owen Almighty, came back to win the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby by 3 ½ lengths. I had John Hancock penciled in just below my top tier of Derby contenders – which consists of Journalism, Sovereignty, and Barnes – at the top of a fairly robust second tier. There is no doubt, the Constitution colt went too fast through the opening quarter-mile in :22.99, but he did slow things down a bit under Flavien Prat through a half-mile in :46.84 and three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.03. When Built rallied alongside John Hancock, it was pretty clear he was not going to win the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. But, I have to admit I was surprised (and impressed) that he fought back to get past Built in deep stretch to finish fourth, beaten by 6 ¼ lengths by winner Tiztastic. With 35 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby and currently 15^th on the leaderboard, John Hancock could be right on the cusp of qualifying for the race. He should have a better foundation for 1 ¼ miles with the additional start at 1 3/16 miles, but at the same time he was soundly defeated at Fair Grounds and he would need to stretch out an additional sixteenth of a mile on Kentucky Derby day with multiple others runners gunning for the early lead. He’s another on this list that I view as a really nice racehorse but a tough sell as a Kentucky Derby win candidate.