Welcome to Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we take a look each week at a recent winner on the Road to the Derby schedule that distributes qualifying points for the 1 ¼-mile classic race May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we take a closer look at Burnham Square, the winner by a nose of the $1.25 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes April 8 at Keeneland. The bay Liam’s Map gelding earned 100 points toward qualifying for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and ranks first on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 130 points in total.

Racing Résumé: Burnham Square was beaten by less than a length in each of his first two starts, in October and November 2024. He picked up the first win of his career Dec. 28, 2024, at Gulfstream Park with a nine-length romp going 1 1/16 miles, and five weeks later Burnham Square announced his presence on the 2025 Kentucky Derby trail with a 1 ¾-length victory in the Holy Bull Stakes at the same track and distance. Among the horses he beat that day was future Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa winner Tappan Street.

Burnham Square was the favorite in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes in his next start at Gulfstream but he was passed by winner Sovereignty on the final turn and never threatened in the race, although he did finish willingly in the stretch and was beaten by only three lengths.

Still, Burnham Square needed an improved effort in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby and he came through with a last-to-first rally to catch pacesetter East Avenue in the closing strides and win by a nose.

The Liam’s Map gelding has run well in all six of his starts, with three wins, two losses by less than a length, and the Fountain of Youth fourth-place finish. He’s a very honest 3-year-old coming off a Grade 1 win.

Speed Figures: Burnham Square took a nice step forward in terms of speed figures in the Blue Grass Stakes, earning a career-best 96 Beyer Speed Figure, a five-point increase, and a 104 Equibase Speed Figure, a new 10-point career top. The positive progression is a good sign but Burnham Square does need to improve again to match the fastest members of his division.

Running Style: Burnham Square is a closer who does his best running late in races, conserving energy in the early stages and then launching a sustained rally over the final three-eighths of a mile or so. While that style can be effective in the Kentucky Derby, closers like Burnham Square and dependent upon others to ensure a fair pace and subject to traffic issues, especially in a 20-horse field like the Kentucky Derby. It is very difficult for a closer to win if their momentum is stopped behind a fading runner or a wall of horses vying for the same real estate.

Pedigree Notes: Burnham Square is from the sixth crop of 2015 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Liam’s Map, by Unbridled’s Song. Liam’s Map also won the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes and finished second by a neck in the Whitney Stakes, both at 1 1/8 miles, in 2015. He is the sire of 32 stakes winners and 13 group/graded stakes winner through April 13.

Burnham Square’s dam (mother) is graded stakes winner Linda, by Scat Daddy. Linda won the 1 1/16-mile Mrs. Revere Stakes on the grass in 2016 and placed in five other stakes at distances ranging from one mile to 1 1/16 miles. Burnham Square’s grandam (maternal grandmother), Beautiful Noise, was a Grade 2 winner at 1 1/8 miles on turf.

Derby Potential: Burnham Square has appeal as a closer to include on exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets as Derby contender who should be passing horses in the stretch at Churchill Downs May 3. I have trouble seeing him winning the race, however, because there are several other closers who have better speed figures and/or finish faster. Case in point, Sovereignty surged past him on the turn on his way to winning the Coolmore Fountain of Youth. Burnham Square completed his final three-eighths of a mile in :38.77 to win the Blue Grass. He was faster late in the Holy Bull, completing his final three-eighths in :37.63 in that win. If he can get back to that type of finishing clocking at 1 ¼ miles on Derby day, Burnham Square can produce a top-three finish.