Gulfstream Park kicks off its three-race prep series for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve this Saturday, Feb. 3, with the $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes. Often, the Holy Bull serves as the coming-out party for highly regarded 3-year-old Derby prospects based in south Florida, ones who have taken some time off during the winter after turning heads as 2-year-olds and are ready to resume their hopeful path to Triple Crown glory.

Click image to purchase shirt.

Such is the case this year, as Saturday’s Grade 3 tilt marks the sophomore debut of Fierceness (#7), who was voted champion 2-year-old male of 2023 based on his dominant 6 ¼-length win in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA last November.

The 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull drew a field of eight contenders, four of them coming out of Gulfstream Park’s Mucho Macho Man Stakes held on Jan. 1. The Holy Bull will be televised on CNBC and FanDuel TV and streamed on Peacock, and has a scheduled post time of 5:48 p.m. ET.

On paper, this race shapes up as Fierceness’ to lose assuming he is able to pick up where he left off in his first start after three months. Of course, anything can happen in horse racing, so with that in mind, here are five questions about this group of Derby prospects that will compete for a total of 42 qualifying points distributed on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale.

1. Can Fierceness build on his championship form and lead his division for another year?

Last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was undoubtedly one of the high points of the two-day World Championships, as Fierceness outran his inflated 16.50-1 odds and a quality field of eight opponents by a country mile. The City of Light colt had been one of the buzz horses of the Saratoga meet after winning his debut by 11 ¼ lengths but lost a lot of that luster when he flopped as the odds-on chalk in the Champagne Stakes. The Champagne was held in the slop at Aqueduct and around one turn; after lunging at the start, Fierceness was never a factor. But did he ever show a new gear in the Juvenile when stretching out slightly and attempting two turns! His final time in the 1 1/16-mile race of 1:41.90 was more than a second faster than Forte’s in the 2022 Juvenile at Keeneland, and that colt – co-owned by Fierceness’ owner Mike Repole and also from Todd Pletcher’s barn – came back for his 3-year-old season in the early months of 2023 to firmly establish his position atop the points standings for the Kentucky Derby, only to be scratched the morning of the first jewel of the Triple Crown.

Despite having a less impressive 2-year-old record than his now-retired stablemate, I would argue that Fierceness is actually the more exciting long-term prospect based on his brilliance in the Juvenile … as it stands today. That means the pressure is on for a rousing comeback win in the Holy Bull against a suspect field. Based on Pletcher’s comments about Fierceness’ training over the past weeks, it would be a major shock if he didn’t live up to expectations.

2. Which, if any, of the Mucho Macho Man runners can pull the upset?

Otello (#3) won the Mucho Macho Man Stakes by angling out from a ground-saving position and unleashing a sustained rally that propelled him just past First World War at the finish line. Held at Gulfstream’s one-turn mile configuration, the Mucho Macho Man was an exciting race, but speed figures assigned to the runners were pedestrian. Sea Streak (#8), who finished a close third after leading briefly in the stretch, joins Otello in the Holy Bull field along with fourth-place Inveigled (#2) and fifth-place No More Time (#5), although No More Time will reportedly be re-routed to the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs next weekend. It’s hard to see any of these entrants toppling Fierceness if that colt is ready to fire in his return. Otello and Inveigled both finished well in the Mucho Macho Man, and the former, in particular, has a pedigree that screams out “give me a route of ground” as a son of Curlin and out of a dam in Isabella Sings who won six stakes races going two turns. However, that bloodline also suggests Otello may eventually turn out to be better on turf. Unless Otello takes a gargantuan leap in progression on Saturday, he figures more as a late-running exacta filler behind Fierceness, who could get away from this field at the top of Gulfstream’s stretch if John Velazquez pushes the button at the right time.

3. Can any of the three other Holy Bull starters crash the party? The remaining contenders in this Derby prep are Hades (#1), a locally based runner who’s 2-for-2 on this track and will stretch out in distance; Dancing Groom (#4), a colt trained by Gulfstream mainstay Antonio Sano who nevertheless will be making his first start at the track; and Domestic Product (#6), a product of the uber-successful owner-trainer combo of Klaravich Stables and Chad Brown. Both Dancing Groom and Domestic Product have graded stakes experience: the former ran on late to finish a distant third in the Champagne Stakes last October but then fizzled when sixth of eight in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, while the latter tired in the stretch of his stakes debut last December and finished seventh in the Remsen Stakes. Sano and Brown are making equipment changes with their charges for the Holy Bull: Dancing Groom will add blinkers, while Domestic Product will have them removed.

From that pair, Domestic Product holds the more intrigue for me as he has made his past two starts at 1 1/8 miles and easily won a maiden at Aqueduct before his Remsen outing. Hades is the most promising member of the trio in my opinion, however, based on a substantial jump in speed figures from his debut (a maiden win in a sprint back in early December) to start two (an eight-length romp in a seven-furlong Gulfstream allowance for Florida-breds on Dec. 31). Hades flashed good early speed in his allowance win and has a brave rider in Paco Lopez. Which leads to …

4. How will the pace scenario influence the final outcome?

I envision Lopez being aggressive with Hades breaking out of the first post position and sending his mount to contest the pace. He should be joined by Inveigled. If those two are prominent early, the race should set up perfectly for John Velazquez and Fierceness. Provided a clean break, the Hall of Fame jockey should be able to use some of Fierceness’ tactical speed to move over and save ground through the first turn sitting in second or third, and then get him in a good stalking position through the backstretch while assessing the clock and letting the early speed dictate when to make a bid for the lead.

5. Is the 150^th winner of the Kentucky Derby entered in this race? Two Holy Bull winners trained on to wear the garland of roses on Derby day: Go for Gin in 1994 and the great Barbaro in 2006. Let me reemphasize my esteem for Fierceness’ talent and potential to improve – his triumph in the BC Juvenile was very, very impressive, and he’s racing for connections that devote much time, energy, and money toward winning Triple Crown races. I predict several more stakes victories will be added to Fierceness’ résumé in the months to come, starting on Saturday, but I don’t see him, nor any other Holy Bull runner, reaching the Churchill Downs winner’s circle on May 4.

Patrick’s Superfecta: 1. Fierceness; 2. Otello; 3. Hades; 4. Domestic Product