This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they were a few weeks ago.

In this sixth edition of this blog for the 2024 run for the roses, the focus is on the key Derby prep races from the last three weeks of racing on the Triple Crown trail. In that timeframe, we’ve seen at least five 3-year-olds, and possibly more, accrue enough points to guarantee a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby. Jeff Ruby Steaks winner Endlessly, however, reportedly will not target the first jewel of the Triple Crown and instead will be pointed to the Grade 2 American Turf Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile turf race for 3-year-olds on the Kentucky Derby undercard at Churchill Downs.

THREE HEATING UP

1. Catching Freedom

Eclipse Sportswire

There was much to like about Catching Freedom’s last-to-first, one-length win in the $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds March 23. He finished quite well for a 1 3/16-mile race, covering the final three-sixteenths of a mile in roughly :18.28 and seven-sixteenths of a mile in :42.49. To simplify, that means he was running fast late in a race that is just a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby … a very good sign. So, too, is the fact that he switched leads a little bit before the eighth pole, which helped him accelerate. It might sound like a small thing, but he’s shown some greenness in the stretch in previous races when it comes to switching from his left lead on the turn to his right lead in the stretch. It still wasn’t perfect, but it was much better. Catching Freedom was last of 11 after three-quarters of a mile, rallied willingly when asked by jockey Flavien Prat, and overhauled 10 opponents despite a fairly tepid early pace to punch his ticket to Louisville. The Constitution colt earned a career-best 97 Beyer Speed Figure and 98 Equibase Speed Figure. With a convincing win at 1 3/16 miles and six weeks of rest before the Kentucky Derby, Catching Freedom has a huge chance to run the best race of his life in his fourth start of the year in the Kentucky Derby for trainer Brad Cox and owner Albaugh Family Stables. Cox won the Kentucky Derby in 2021 with Mandaloun following the disqualification of Medina Spirit and ran third with Angel of Empire a year ago, so he knows how to have a top 3-year-old ready to fire on the first Saturday in May. As with any deep closer, navigating a clear path to the finish line in a field of up to 20 could be a challenge, but I feel very confident Catching Freedom will be flying late May 4 at Churchill Downs.

2. Honor Marie

Click image to purchase shirt.

Honor Marie was my pick to win the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby March 23, and he finished with a powerful late rally but just could not quite match strides with Catching Freedom. On the bright side, both horses finished well and Honor Marie has slightly more tactical speed than Catching Freedom, so on Kentucky Derby day he might have less traffic to weave through from the final turn to the finish line. I like the path trainer Whit Beckman has mapped out for Honor Marie. Beckman is a former assistant to Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown, and Honor Marie’s schedule seems to follow the Chad Brown-Bobby Frankel roadmap of plenty of spacing between races leading up to a top effort in the third start off the layoff. The Honor Code colt was given 12 weeks off after winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and returned in the Risen Star Stakes Feb. 17, finishing a disappointing fifth on a sloppy track in his 3-year-old bow. He was much better five weeks later on a fast (dry) track in the Louisiana Derby when second by a length while earning a new top 96 Beyer Speed Figure and a 97 Equibase Speed Figure that was just a tick off his career best. Honor Marie will have six weeks of rest leading into his third race of the year; like Catching Freedom, he is well-positioned to run the best race of his career on May 4 at Churchill Downs. The Louisiana Derby runner-up finish also supported my belief that he’s bred to excel at 1 ¼ miles – by 2015 champion older dirt male Honor Code out of Grade 2-placed Dame Marie, a winner at 1 1/8 miles – so I think Honor Marie enters the Derby with a chance to run the best race of his career for the partnership of Ribble Farms, Michael Eiserman, Earl Silver, Kenneth Fishbein, and Daniel Fishbein.

3. Domestic Product

SV Photography

The third slot here was a tough call for me between Louisiana Derby third-place finisher Tuscan Gold and Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby victor Domestic Product. Ultimately, I sided with the latter because he’s simply better positioned to compete in the Kentucky Derby with 60 qualifying points (compared with 25 for Tuscan Gold) and another prep race planned in either the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct or the $1 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, both on April 6. This Practical Joke colt has thrived since stretching out in distance in his second career start with two wins and one second in four races, and the only poor effort, an unplaced finish in the Remsen Stakes last December, came with a built-in excuse on a muddy track. In two races as a 3-year-old, Domestic Product finished second to Hades in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes before using a powerful closing bid to win the Tampa Bay Derby by a neck from Sam F. Davis Stakes winner No More Time. The pace in the Tampa Bay Derby was remarkably slow, which played a role in the poor speed figure Domestic Product earned, but he finished well in that race with a quick final sixteenth of a mile in under six seconds and a final five-sixteenths of a mile in approximately :28.93. Domestic Product’s winning Equibase Speed Figure (82) and Beyer Speed Figure (82) were simply not very good and he has yet to run a really fast race, which tempers my enthusiasm in this Chad Brown-trained colt a bit, as does his pedigree. But he has excelled in his route races to date and has one more chance to run a fast race before the Kentucky Derby, so I’m choosing to take an optimistic view of the Klaravich Stables homebred. He’s a talented colt with some upside and a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate secured.

Endlessly (Eclipse Sportswire)

Also-eligible: Endlessly improved to 5-for-6 lifetime with a win in the $700,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks. He’s talented, fast, and push-button – one of the best 3-year-olds of this crop – and would have been in the top three here had his connections not indicated the plan is to switch back to turf for his next race. I have to admit I’m a little surprised trainer Michael McCarthy didn’t wait to see how Endlessly handles training on the main track at Churchill Downs before making a decision, but I trust he knows what’s best for his horse. … I mentioned Tuscan Gold above and I thought he ran a terrific race in his stakes debut for trainer Chad Brown, stalking the pace and holding on late to finish third in the $1 million Louisiana Derby in just his third race. He earned a career-best 96 Equibase Speed Figure and a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, indicating this Medaglia d’Oro colt is a quality racehorse. He’s bred to handle 1 ¼ miles as Tuscan Gold is out of a Grade 3-winning Curlin mare, Valadorna, whose two stakes wins came in two-turn races, but he might be on the outside looking in when it comes to Kentucky Derby qualifying points. … Two runners who have a spot secured in the Kentucky Derby are Jeff Ruby Steaks runner-up West Saratoga and Japan’s T O Password. The former is a terrific Kentucky Derby story as West Saratoga’s owner Harry Veruchi and trainer Larry Demeritte both have been in the game for decades and have their first Derby horse. On paper, West Saratoga does not appear fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby, but we’ve seen plenty of longshot winners in the 21^st century and getting into the starting gate is half the battle. Likewise, T O Password is not as interesting to me as countrymate Forever Young, who races Saturday in the United Arab Emirates Derby. T O Password improved to 2-for-2 with a win by a head in the Fukuryu Stakes, barely holding off the late rush of Arare Tabashiru in the about 1 1/8-mile race. He secured the automatic spot on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby and his connections confirmed they intend to ship in for the race. I’m usually the first to jump on the Japanese bandwagon for big races, but I have to admit I’m skeptical this colt by Copano Rickey has the seasoning or stamina for 1 ¼ miles.

THREE COOLING DOWN

1. Agate Road

Walter Wlodarczyk/NYRA

Agate Road ran well in his career debut on dirt (a runner-up finish) before switching to turf for a successful four-start run that included a maiden win, a victory in the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes, and a runner-up finish in the Dania Beach Stakes. The only unplaced finish in that run was a fifth in the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, a race in which he was beaten by less than three lengths. His class established, Agate Road shifted back to dirt as his connections gave him a shot on the Kentucky Derby trail. The initial start was a promising second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes but a nonthreatening seventh-place finish in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby March 23 at Fair Grounds most likely closed the chapter on the Kentucky Derby dream as his 10 points toward qualifying figure to fall well short of the threshold needed to make the starting gate for the first jewel of the Triple Crown. The Quality Road colt has plenty of natural ability. I would not be surprised to see him return to the grass for his next start.

Eclipse Sportswire

2. Track Phantom

The Gun Runner Stakes and Lecomte Stakes winner’s spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate is secure after a runner-up finish in the Risen Star Stakes Feb. 17 and a fourth-place finish in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby March 23 lifted him to 70 qualifying points. In fact, he sits third on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. But those last two races were eye-opening for me in terms of his stamina. He was caught late by highly regarded Sierra Leone when stretching out from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles for the Risen Star. I was already a bit skeptical based upon pedigree of his chances to improve at longer distances, so when he set the pace and faded to finish fourth when stretching out another sixteenth of a mile in the Louisiana Derby it set off some alarm bells. Look, this is a terrific 3-year-old colt with a bright future. Track Phantom is fast and he’s a fighter, but I just can’t trust that he can lead from start to finish against up to 19 challengers going 1 ¼ miles on Kentucky Derby day when he could not do so when setting a slow pace against lesser competition at shorter distances in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby.

Click image to purchase shirt.

3. Northern Flame

Northern Flame been in and around the Kentucky Derby trail since early in his 2-year-old season, finishing fourth and fifth in graded stakes races in 2023 before finally delivering a breakout race of sorts for trainer Ken McPeek in the $1.25 million Rebel Stakes Feb. 24. He pressed the pace and held on to finish third in that race, earning a career-best 97 Equibase Speed Figure that offered reason for optimism. The Rebel third followed a front-running allowance win at Oaklawn Park in January, so Northern Flame appeared to have turned a corner as a 3-year-old. He could not maintain that momentum in the $700,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks March 23 at Turfway Park, where he dueled for the lead but came up empty in the stretch when finishing eighth, 9 ¾ lengths behind winner Endlessly. Considering the Jeff Ruby was Northern Flame’s first race on an all-weather surface, it’s far too early to dismiss him in terms of key races in the 3-year-old division later this spring and summer. But with only 18 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, McPeek is going to need to pull a rabbit out of his hat to get this one into the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby May 4.

Of Note: Nysos is not eligible for the Kentucky Derby because he is trained by Bob Baffert, who is banned from running at Churchill Downs Inc. racetracks because of Medina Spirit’s medication violation in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. But it’s worth noting that Baffert’s unbeaten Nyquist colt, considered by many to be the best 3-year-old dirt male in training, has been sidelined for 30 days due to what was described as a minor injury. That might make the Preakness Stakes on May 18 a longshot at best at this point. If he returns in mid-April, Nysos would probably need at least five workouts to get ready for the middle jewel of the Triple Crown, so everything would have to go perfect from this point forward.