This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they were a few weeks ago.

In the initial edition of this blog for the 2024 run for the roses, the focus is on the racing in the 2-year-old division after the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA. At this point, I think there is a fairly large gap between Juvenile winner Fierceness and the rest of the winners on the Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby and beyond. He’s simply faster right now, but so much can change in the next 20 weeks leading into the May 4 Kentucky Derby.

THREE HEATING UP

1. Dornoch

Dornoch (Carson Blevins/Eclipse Sportswire)

The first two spots were essentially a photo finish between Remsen Stakes winner Dornoch and Kentucky Jockey Club victor Honor Marie. As much enthusiasm as I have for Honor Marie’s potential, I’m slightly higher on Dornoch’s chances to develop into an elite 3-year-old in 2024. I mentioned in greater detail in my profile on Remsen Stakes winner Dornoch that he has a habit of erratic or, more accurately, immature behavior in his races, specifically losing focus in the stretch. He showed incredible resilience after he was passed (not headed but actually passed) in the Remsen stretch by Sierra Leone then fought back gamely on the inside to push his nose in front in the closing strides of the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 2 test. The fact that he had significant fuel left in the gas tank after setting the pace through a half-mile in :46.97 really stood out to me as an indicator of quality. He earned a new career-best 91 Beyer Speed Figure for the Remsen and a 97 Equibase Speed Figure that was a few ticks off the 101 he earned for a 6 ½-length maiden romp Oct. 14 at Keeneland. Given the immaturity and Dornoch’s pedigree — he’s a full-sibling (same sire [father], same dam [mother]) to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage — it’s pretty easy to envision a path to success on the 2024 Kentucky Derby trail and beyond.

2. Honor Marie

Honor Marie (Jessica Morgan/Eclipse Sportswire)

I don’t typically love one-run, deep closers like Honor Marie for the Kentucky Derby, but recent history has shown that closers like Country House (2019), Rich Strike (2022), and Mage (2023) can win on the first Saturday in May. Likewise, even in years when speed has been potent in terms of determining the winner, closers frequently pass tiring horses in the Churchill stretch to fill out the trifecta or exacta. Honor Marie delivered a breakout race in winning the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes by two lengths Nov. 25 going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs. The bay Honor Code colt improved his Equibase Speed Figure 11 points to a career-best 101 and boosted his Beyer Speed Figure 13 points to a new top of 92. Trainer D. Whitworth Beckman is a former assistant to Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown, so he’s been around quality Derby candidates and this one is bred for stamina. Sire (father) Honor Code, by 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy, won the 2015 Whitney Stakes and Honor Marie’s dam (mother), Dame Marie, is a Grade 2-placed winner at 1 1/8 miles and a three-quarter sibling to Rule of Law, winner of the 2005 English St. Leger at 1 ¾ miles. He's not quite fast enough yet, but withs two wins and a second in three starts and a Grade 2 victory on the host track of the Kentucky Derby, there is significant reason for optimism.

3. Nysos

Nysos (BENOIT photo)

In previous years I did not consider horses from the barn of Bob Baffert because they are ineligible to accrue Kentucky Derby qualifying points or to compete in the first jewel of the Triple Crown while under his care as part of a ban instituted by Churchill Downs in the wake of Media Spirit’s disqualification for a medication violation in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. But we’ve seen in the last two years that if a Derby prospect has demonstrated the ability to compete in marquee races on the road to the Triple Crown, they will be transferred to another trainer (primarily Tim Yakteen in 2022 and 2023) to qualify and compete in the Kentucky Derby. Nysos looked like that type of highly regarded runner in winning the Grade 2 Bob Hope Stakes at seven-eighths of a mile on Nov. 19 at Del Mar. The bay colt by Nyquist won his debut by 10 ½ lengths in October at Santa Anita and followed with an 8 ¾-length runaway in the Bob Hope, stamping himself one to watch heading into 2024. Tactical speed is a valuable asset for Nysos, but I’m not as sold on Nysos as a 1 ¼-mile horse based on what I’ve seen from him on the racetrack and his pedigree. I do think the colt by 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist has a solid chance to be successful navigating two turns as there is some stamina on the bottom half of his pedigree, including third dam (maternal great-grandmother) Unbridled Elaine, winner of the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Like Dornoch and Honor Marie, Nysos will need to improve to be a top Derby candidate in 2024, but you have to like what he’s shown in two starts to date.

Also-Eligible: While Sierra Leone was denied late in the Remsen Stakes by Dornoch, the Gun Runner colt did rally impressively from last of 10 and more than 12 lengths off the pace to take the lead, albeit briefly. He improved his Equibase Speed Figure 10 points from an 87 for his 1 ¼-length debut win Nov. 4 at Aqueduct to a 97, the dark bay or brown colt out of 2017 Darley Alcibiades winner Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon, appears to have plenty of talent and stamina.

THREE COOLING DOWN

1. Where’s Chris

Where's Chris. (Sue Kawczynski/Eclipse Sportswire)

The cooling down section is especially difficult at this time of year with 2-year-olds still learning, growing, and maturing while trying new things like longer distances and improved competition for the first time. Progress is not always linear with Thoroughbred racehorses, and Nashua Stakes winner Where’s Chris’s fifth-place finish in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes was an example. The dark bay or brown Twirling Candy colt took a nice step forward when stretching out from sprints in his first two races to one mile in the Nashua, winning by three-quarters of a length while earning a 96 Equibase Speed Figure. He was not quite up to the task in the Remsen, however, fading late to finish 13 ½ length behind winner Dornoch. Out of Grade 1-placed stakes winner Sea Queen, by Lemon Drop Kid, Where’s Chris still has plenty of upside but the Remsen appears to be a step in the wrong direction for this 2-year-old.

2. Domestic Product

Domestic Product was unplaced and beaten by 12 ¾ lengths in his career debut in a sprint in August at Saratoga Race Course, but the Practical Joke colt stepped forward in a big way when stretching out to a mile in October at the Belmont at the Big A meet. He raced just off the pace and took command near the top of the stretch on his way to a 4 ½-length romp. I really liked his chances in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes — and often in this blog, my own expectations for a Derby prospect factor into the heating up/cooling down sections — but he faded late after a stalking trip and was beaten by 16 ¼ length by winner Dornoch. The 1 1/8-mile Remsen was, no doubt, a tough assignment off of a maiden score, but I viewed Domestic Product as a win contender and he was not quite ready. The Klaravich Stables homebred has plenty of time to put things together for trainer Chad Brown.

3. Risk It

Risk It. (Gary Johnson/Eclipse Sportswire)

Risk It entered the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Nov. 25 at Churchill Downs off a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes Sept. 16 at Churchill Downs. With a win on the main track that hosted the Kentucky Jockey Club, Risk It looked like a prime win candidate for the 1 1/16-mile race and was sent off as the 3.65-1 second betting choice for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. He finished fourth, beaten by 8 ¼ lengths, in the Kentucky Jockey Club but not without significant trouble in the race. He was steadied several times and it seemed to really rattle him. Let’s hope it was, at the least, a good learning experience for Risk It in his third start. A $500,000 purchase at the 2022 Keeneland September yearling sale, Risk It remains a quality young prospect but I’d expected a better outcome for him in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.