
Thoroughbred Makeover Diary: Finding the Best Path Forward
NBC Sports will again use multiple platforms to provide extensive coverage of the 148th Longines Kentucky Oaks and the 148th Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve.
The action begins on Friday from 1-6 p.m. ET with USA Network’s broadcast of the Oaks, the nation’s premier race for 3-year-old fillies. Fans may tune in to USA Network from 12-2:30 p.m. on Saturday for the start of Derby coverage before shifting to NBC from 2:30-7:30 p.m.
Coverage also will be streamed live on NBCSports.com, the NBC Sports app and Peacock.
Veteran analyst Randy Moss shared his views on some of the top contenders in the 148th Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve during a wide-ranging question-and-answer session conducted on behalf of America’s Best Racing:
PEDULLA: Can Taiba overcome his lack of seasoning?
MOSS: I think Taiba has an excellent chance to win the Kentucky Derby. He may have only run twice, but [Triple Crown winner] Justify had only run three times going into the Derby in 2018. It’s difficult to say, looking at Taiba’s performance in the [Runhappy] Santa Anita Derby, that he had a lack of preparation going a mile and an eighth. He was pulling away from Messier the last furlong. So, I think it’s a stretch to think that, from a preparation standpoint, he won’t be able to handle the mile and a quarter. The biggest question mark with Taiba is how he will respond if he finds himself surrounded by a crowd of horses and getting dirt kicked in his face. You could say the same thing about quite a few other horses in the field that have quite a bit more experience than Taiba.
PEDULLA: Would you anticipate that Messier will move forward off his second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby?
MOSS: I don’t quite know what to think about that. Bob Baffert and Tim Yakteen (who took over training before the Santa Anita Derby) are not the type of conditioners to run a horse in the Santa Anita Derby that is not 100% ready to perform at their ultimate level, especially when the horse was in need of points to make it into the Kentucky Derby. On the other hand, I can understand people who look at his past performances and see the gap between February and the Santa Anita Derby, which was by design, and believe he is going to move up with the Santa Anita Derby under his belt. I can see both sides.
PEDULLA: Does Crown Pride, the Japanese starter, have a shot?
MOSS: I came into the last few weeks thinking he had absolutely no chance. I still think he’s going to be a legitimate 30-1 shot. But when people who I respect have been on the ground in Louisville watching the horses train tell me that the horse is looking very strong and not looking like a 30-1 shot, it certainly has made me re-evaluate it a little bit because of that.
PEDULLA: Do you think Secret Oath’s owners made the right decision to compete in the Oaks rather than the Derby?
MOSS: Absolutely. Her race in the Arkansas Derby was not as dynamic as her previous races against fillies during the winter and spring at Oaklawn Park. In my opinion, the Arkansas Derby was hers to lose because yes, she might have had a touch of trouble at the start of the race, but the Arkansas Derby was fast-paced. It actually should have benefitted Secret Oath to be where she was early in the race. The race completely fell apart in the last quarter-mile. Secret Oath had every opportunity to go by those horses and win. And yet she flattened out in the final furlong.
PEDULLA: Were you impressed by Mo Donegal’s rally in the Wood Memorial? The Aqueduct surface favored speed throughout the afternoon.
MOSS: It was hard not to be impressed. He had the fastest final quarter-mile time of any horse in a Kentucky Derby prep race. But having said that, the racetrack at Aqueduct for that particular race was exceptionally fast. While Mo Donegal’s stretch run was visually impressive, I still think he comes into the Kentucky Derby with something to prove. I am not at all convinced that his talent level is as high as that of Epicenter, Zandon, and maybe even a couple of other horses.
PEDULLA: When you look at the horses coming out of the Florida preps at Gulfstream Park, do you view Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa winner White Abarrio or Simplification, who won the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes, as the keener contender?
MOSS: I believe that Simplification will have problems with the mile-and-a-quarter distance. The Florida Derby was a fairly aggressively paced race, especially in the middle parts. But White Abarrio and Charge It were running away from Simplification in the last eighth of a mile of that race. I think the Kentucky Derby is also going to be an aggressively paced race and I expect Simplification to struggle in the latter part of the Kentucky Derby. I definitely believe White Abarrio is the better horse of those two.
PEDULLA: Can trainer Ken McPeek win his first Derby with Smile Happy or Tiz the Bomb?
MOSS: Smile Happy is one of the better longshot plays in the Kentucky Derby. Yes, he was beaten fairly decisively by Zandon in the Blue Grass [Stakes]. But he also was five wide in that race around the first turn, giving up a substantial amount of ground to Zandon and some of the other horses. I think there is room for Smile Happy to improve if he gets the right kind of trip. If he gets the right trip and manages to save some ground and get through at the right moments, I think he’s got a chance to make some noise. Tiz the Bomb, I think, is probably better suited to turf or synthetics.
PEDULLA: Can Epicenter finally end Steve Asmussen’s 0-for-23 Derby drought?
MOSS: The only issue I have with Epicenter, and it is nitpicking I will admit, is that he had rail trips in almost every one of his races at the Fair Grounds. If he has to run four wide or give up ground for the first time in the Kentucky Derby, maybe that might hurt his chances just a bit. Also, the Fair Grounds races, especially the Louisiana Derby, were pretty slow-paced in comparison to the Florida Derby and the Santa Anita Derby and even the Arkansas Derby.
PEDULLA: How can Steve’s drought be explained? It seems like a long one for such a high-caliber trainer.
MOSS: If you go back at look at the horses Steve Asmussen has run in the Kentucky Derby over the years, I think you’ll only find two horses that had a legitimate chance to win the Kentucky Derby. One was Curlin and the other was Gun Runner. Curlin didn’t get the kind of trip they hoped for with his inexperience. He dropped farther back than they had hoped. Gun Runner, in May of his 3-year-old year, was a decent horse, a good horse. He wasn’t as good as Nyquist or Exaggerator at that point in his career. He was not the Gun Runner we would see as a 4-year-old or even later in his 3-year-old year. He improved substantially with more maturity. Other than that, you will have difficulty finding an Asmussen horse in the Kentucky Derby that you thought would have a reasonable chance to win.
PEDULLA: Do you have a sense of how badly Steve wants this?
MOSS: I think he wants it very badly. Any trainer in America would want very badly to win the Kentucky Derby. When you’re Steve Asmussen and you’ve won almost every other major race there is to win and you’ve won more races than any other trainer in the history of North American racing, I’m sure you consider that a hole in your resume. Having said that, if he retires and somehow through a quirk of fate he doesn’t have a Derby win, I think he will be able to sleep soundly at night with all that he has accomplished.
PEDULLA: What horses make up your top four selections?
MOSS: My top four will be some combination of Epicenter, Zandon, Taiba, and Messier.