Making the Grade, which will run through the 2020 Triple Crown series, focuses on the winners or top performers of the key races, usually from the previous weekend, who could make an impact on the Triple Crown. We’ll be taking a close look at impressive winners and evaluating their chances to win classic races based upon ability, running style, connections (owner, trainer, jockey), and pedigree.

Note: On March 17, the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodward Reserve was postponed and rescheduled for Sept. 5 because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This week we take a closer look at Nadal, winner of the $1 million Rebel Stakes March 14 at Oaklawn Park.

Like Justify two years ago, Nadal is a rising star from the Bob Baffert barn who did not debut until his 3-year-old season but earned his way onto the Triple Crown trail. The March 14 Rebel Stakes was the Blame colt’s first try around two turns and he cleared that hurdle with a determined three-quarter-length win under Joel Rosario. Let’s evaluate his chances to be a key player on the 2020 Triple Crown trail.

Ability: A $700,000 purchase by bloodstock agent Kerri Radcliffe on behalf of his current owners at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Florida sale of selected 2-year-olds in training, Nadal was named after tennis superstar Rafael Nadal, winner of 19 Grand Slam singles titles.

Typically, owners don’t name a racehorse after a star athlete unless that horse has significant natural ability. It doesn’t work out all the time, of course, but in general the idea is to honor the athlete with a racehorse of elite athletic ability.

Nadal did nothing to dispel that hypothesis in his career debut for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, winning a 6 ½ furlong race Jan. 19 at Santa Anita Park by 3 ¾ lengths by leading from start to finish. He followed with a three-quarter-length win over well-regarded Ginobili (also named for a pro athlete, NBA champion Manu Ginobili) Feb. 9 at Santa Anita going seven-eighths of a mile in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes.

Speed-figure makers took notice as Nadal earned a 102 Equibase Speed Figure for his debut, a 94 BrisNet rating, and a stellar 98 Beyer Speed Figure. Beyer had him taking a step back to a 91 for the San Vicente, still a very good number for a 3-year-old making his second start, while he improved to a 107 Equibase Speed Figure and a 96 rating from BrisNet.

Regardless of whether he took a step back or improved in his graded stakes debut, Nadal handled significantly tougher competition and again flashed elite ability.

The $1 million Rebel Stakes introduced several new variables for Nadal as he was trying two turns for the first time while stretching out to 1 1/16 miles and competing on an off-track (rated sloppy) for the first time. He also faced continuous pressure for the first half-mile from American Theorem.

Nadal no doubt was tested through a quarter-mile in :22.89 and an opening half-mile in :46. The taxing pace was enough to leave American Theorem and No Parole, who stalked from third, with nothing left for the stretch as they faded to next-to-last and last, respectively.

Nadal, on the other hand, found more stamina in reserve to hold off deep closer Excession, who was rallying from more than 12 lengths back. Nadal completed his final sixteenth of a mile in 6.53 seconds to hang on and showed guts when challenged in deep stretch.

Given the adversity that Nadal faced, his Rebel win was impressive and the speed figures, for the most part, confirmed the eye test. While he took a step back to a 101 Equibase Speed Figure, Nadal earned a solid 96 Beyer Speed Figure that Daily Racing Form expert analyst Randy Moss believed might have been stronger than the number indicated.

Nadal’s 120 TimeFormUS rating places him among the elite 3-year-olds on this year’s Derby trail.

It’s tough to predict which 3-year-olds will benefit most from the additional four months to get ready for the Kentucky Derby, but it stands to reason that a lightly raced powerhouse with elite natural ability might be a prime candidate. I’d expect Baffert to shift gears and use the extra time to space his races and build a steady foundation for 1 ¼ miles. Nadal looks like a top-five contender for the 2020 September Kentucky Derby.

Nadal and Rosario. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Running style: Unbeaten Nadal is a big, powerful racehorse with an abundance of natural speed that he utilizes well to gain good early position, a characteristic Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert does a terrific job enhancing in horses with high-cruising speed. He’s won two of his three starts leading from start to finish, including the Rebel in which he had no choice but to use his speed early from the inside post on a sloppy track. Nadal showed in his second start that he can rate just off the pace and win, but that was an opening half-mile in :44.09 while dueling. He did relax on the turn and wait for his cue to accelerate in the San Vicente, but it seems like in most cases Nadal will naturally be the fastest horse in his races. In a race like the Kentucky Derby that could feature four or five runners competing to set the pace, Nadal’s ability to relax could be a valuable asset.

Connections: Nadal is owned by the partnership of George Bolton, Arthur Hoyeau, Barry Lipman, and Mark Mathiesen. Bolton has partnered with Lipman and Mathiesen on several other horses but is best known as the co-owner of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, champion My Miss Aurelia, and multiple Grade 1 winner The Factor. A Baltimore native, Bolton has been involved in racehorse ownership since 1989.

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Bob Baffert has won 15 U.S. Triple Crown races and four Eclipse Awards during his Hall of Fame career. Baffert’s five Kentucky Derby winners were Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), War Emblem (2002), American Pharoah (2015), and Justify (2018). The final two went on to win the Triple Crown. Baffert also won two legs of the Triple Crown with Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Point Given, and War Emblem.

A native of the Dominican Republic, Joel Rosario has won 2,863 races, including 272 graded stakes and 85 Grade/Group 1 races, through March 16. Rosario has ridden Nadal to victory in each of his two graded stakes races. He won the 2013 Kentucky Derby aboard Orb and has two wins in the Belmont Stakes with Tonalist (2013) and Sir Winston (2019).

Pedigree: The first thing I noticed when I took a look at Nadal’s pedigree were the names Pleasant Colony and Stage Door Johnny, the sires of his grandam (maternal grandmother) and third dam (maternal great-grandmother), respectively, and two powerful stamina influences. It’s not how I typically dive into a pedigree, however, so let’s backtrack and start with Nadal’s sire, Blame.

Best known as the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner who handed all-time great Zenyatta her lone career defeat, Blame was a true route horse who won the Grade 2 Clark and Grade 1 Stephen Foster and Whitney Handicaps along with the Classic on his way to an Eclipse Award as champion older male. By Arch and a homebred of Claiborne Farm and Adele Dilschneider, Blame has six crops age three and older and has amassed 31 stakes winners, including 16 graded stakes winners. His top runners to date are French classic winner Senga and Grade 1-winning sprinter Marley’s Freedom.

Nadal’s dam (mother), Ascending Angel, by Pulpit, was winless in 12 starts while racing primarily on the grass.

Grandam Solar Colony, by Pleasant Colony, won at 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles in 11 starts and is a full-sister (same sire, same dam) to champion Pleasant Stage and graded stakes winners Stage Colony and Colonial Play. Solar Colony also was a stakes producer and hails from a family anchored by Nadal’s fourth dam (maternal great-great grandmother), Northern Meteor, by Northern Dancer, a stakes winner on the track and a multiple Grade 1 producer.

Based upon pedigree, I could see Nadal really filling out his frame in the second half of the year and maturing physically and mentally into a potent two-turn racehorse. He has the natural speed to be an elite sprinter, too, but there is plenty of stamina in this pedigree to inspire Derby dreams.