The 28th running of the $400,000 Lexus Raven Run Stakes for 3-year-old fillies drew a full field of 12. A Grade 2 race contested at seven furlongs on the dirt at Keeneland, this year’s edition brings together five graded stakes winners, including Grade 1 winner Percy’s Bar. The top two choices on the morning line are Conceit and Mashallah, both entering off three consecutive victories including back-to-back wins at the stakes level. Apart from the graded stakes winners, this year’s Raven Run includes With a Kiss, an undefeated daughter of 2016 Kentucky Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia.
Here’s a look at the field from the rail out:
Army’s Marauder, by Army Mule, has not finished out of the money in four career starts for trainer Chris Davis. Last time out, Army’s Marauder broke her maiden at odds of 27.95-1 at Churchill Downs over Kaykay, who came back to earn her first win at Keeneland Oct. 10. Luis Saez retains the mount. Mythical, by St Patrick’s Day, finished runner-up to fellow Raven Run contender Mashallah last time out in the Grade 3 Prioress Stakes at Saratoga for trainer Jorge Delgado. Emisael Jaramillo, who rode Mythical in the first six starts of her career, will be back aboard the Arindel homebred for the first time since their win in the My Dear Girl Stakes at Gulfstream in November. Jaramillo and Mythical are 5-for-6 together, including a win in last year’s Adirondack Stakes at Saratoga. Hen Party, a Godolphin homebred by Into Mischief trained by Eoin Harty, will be making her second start on dirt after a third-place finish in the Prioress to Mashallah and Mythical in her first try on the surface. Both of Hen Party’s wins came on all-weather surfaces, including the Serena’s Song Stakes at Turfway Park in March. Rafael Bejarano will ride her for the first time. Coco Connect, by Connect, has the highest morning-line price on the board of 50-1 odds for trainer John Ennis. Coco Connect switches back to the dirt following a distant 11th-place finish last time out in the Grade 2 Ainsworth Music City Stakes on the turf at Kentucky Downs. Edgar Morales, who has been aboard for all three of her career wins, retains the mount. Yo Fancy, a Yaupon filly with a sustained running style and the first of two entrants trained by Ian Wilkes, is fresh of a narrow third-place finish at the allowance level at Churchill last time out. Yo Fancy earned her first win in her second career start in a 6 ½-furlong dirt race at Ellis Park in July and will be stretching out to seven furlongs for the first time. Regular rider Cristian Torres will be back aboard. As a 2-year-old, Percy’s Bar dominated the Debutante Stakes at Churchill Downs by five lengths before finishing runner-up in the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes, crossed the finish line first in the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades at Keeneland before being disqualified and placed second, and ran a game third in the NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The Upstart filly started her 3-year-old campaign with a win in the Grade 1 Central Bank Ashland Stakes at Keeneland in April and has not found the winner’s circle since for trainer Ben Colebrook. Last time in her turf debut, Percy’s Bar finished last in the Music City Stakes and will have a jockey switch to Jose Ortiz. A Fine Chardonnay, the second Wilkes entrant, is 2-for-2 on the Keeneland main track, winning the Dean Dorton Myrtlewood Stakes as a 2-year-old and the Grade 2 MiddleGround Capital Beaumont Stakes as a 3-year-old. Last time out, the Maclean’s Music filly finished fourth behind Raven Run contenders Conceit and Movie Night in the Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes Presented by Resolute Racing at Churchill. Regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. retains the mount. Conceit, the morning-line second choice at 4-1, is coming off three consecutive victories, most recently taking the Dogwood Stakes at Churchill over multiple graded stakes winner Explora. Conceit, a half-sister to graded stakes winner Final Gambit, is a Juddmonte homebred trained by Brad Cox and is 4-for-4 on dirt. She will be reunited with Irad Ortiz Jr. for the first time since a dominant allowance win at Churchill in June. Mashallah, the 8-5 morning-line favorite, has amassed four victories by a combined winning margin of 21 ¼ lengths from five starts. Trained by Brendan Walsh, the Maxfield filly was purchased as a 2-year-old in training for $1.25 million and is coming off a five-length win in the Prioress at Saratoga. Tyler Gaffalione, who has been aboard for two of her wins but not her most recent start, will be back in the irons. With a Kiss, an undefeated Gun Runner filly, will be making her first start at the stakes level for trainer Todd Pletcher. With a Kiss dominated her debut at Aqueduct last October and won at the allowance level coming off a 10-month layoff in September by a neck over fellow Raven Run contender Star Actress. John Velazquez retains the mount. Movie Night, a WinStar Farm homebred by Speightstown, went head-to-head to set the pace with Explora last time out in the Dogwood Stakes and finished a game third by just a neck to Raven Run contender Conceit. Trained by Will Walden, Movie Night will be making her third consecutive start in a graded stakes and will be reunited with Flavien Prat for the first time since a dominant 5 ½-length win at the allowance level at Churchill in June. Star Actress, a Justify filly trained by Bill Mott, drew the far outside as she seeks her first win since breaking her maiden seven starts back in March. Last time out, Star Actress switched back to the dirt going from a route to a sprint at the allowance-optional claiming level at Saratoga and finished runner-up by just a neck to Raven Run entrant With a Kiss.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
With Mashallah expected to be a heavy favorite, the 4-1 morning line odds for Conceit look like tremendous value considering the level of talent and ability of this Not This Time filly. Conceit started her career with a disappointing effort on the turf last August but turned heads just a month later with a 9 ½-length dirt route maiden special weight romp at Horseshoe Indianapolis. She then returned to the turf at Churchill at the allowance level to run second and made a start on the all-weather surface at Turfway to start her 3-year-old campaign in January, finishing third. Coming off a five-month layoff in June, Conceit then dominated a one-turn mile allowance race at Churchill on a sloppy track in a race taken off the turf. With two wins in as many start on dirt, Conceit’s connections opted to keep her on the dirt with a turnback in distance to seven furlongs. In the Audubon Oaks Presented by OG Cappers, she stalked just off the pace and battled with A Fine Chardonnay before edging clear to win by three-quarters of a length while improving her Equibase Speed Figure from a 94 to a 98. Last time out in the Dogwood, Conceit raced well off the pace and rallied to catch Movie Night and Explora, who was coming off a five-length romp in a Grade 1. Conceit earned a career-best 101 speed figure for the performance and shows an improving pattern in every start this year. Conceit appears to have come out of the Dogwood in good order, posting back-to-back, four-furlong workouts in :47.80 and :47.40, respectively. Another notable positive is that Irad Ortiz Jr. will be reunited with this Conceit as he and Cox win at 57% (4-for-7) in graded stakes races on the Keeneland dirt together in the last five years. Also over the last five years, horses trained by Cox who are owned by Juddmonte win at 29% from 76 starts in graded stakes races. Conceit has really found her groove at this seven-furlong distance with an undefeated record on dirt and has a good chance to improve again. Her 4-1 morning-line odds represent an excellent price.
Mashallah has earned every bit of her 8-5 morning-line favoritism for trainer Brendan Walsh, with dominant wins in four of five starts. Mashallah debuted at Keeneland in April and led from start to finish in a final time of 1:09.49 going six furlongs on the dirt to win by 3 ¾ lengths. In May, Mashallah stretched out to a one-turn mile at Churchill and just did not fire, finishing a distant fifth by 12 ½ lengths. Since then, she has been perfect, including improving Equibase Speed Figures in every start. Mashallah shipped to Saratoga in July to romp by seven lengths in an allowance-optional claiming race, improving from a 78 to a 95 Equibase Speed Figure. In August, she made her stakes debut in the Tyson Gilpin Stakes at Colonial Downs going seven furlongs on the dirt and again dominated, ridden out to a 5 ½-length victory under Gaffalione while improving to a 100 speed figure. Last time out, Mashallah faced her toughest test yet in the Prioress Stakes at Saratoga and drew clear to win by five lengths under Manny Franco while again improving to a 104 speed figure, which is the highest last out Equibase Speed Figure of any filly in this field. Horses in graded stakes races on the dirt over the past year with the highest last-out Equibase Speed Figure win at 29% from 298 starts. Coming off such a dominant win in the Prioress, can a young filly like Mashallah repeat that performance? Over the past year, horses in graded stakes who won their previous race at the graded stakes level by four or more lengths win at 33% and finish 69% in the money. There is no doubt about the ability of Mashallah, and with her improving speed-figure pattern along with a bullet five-furlong workout at Keeneland Oct. 9, we may see her best performance to date in the Raven Run. That said, Mashallah faces a tough task from a pace scenario standpoint. She is an early speed filly and, while she does not necessarily need to set the tempo to win, she could get caught early in a speed duel with Movie Night on her outside. Despite her running style, Mashallah still maintains a 117.0 late pace rating and has shown her ability to finish strong even with a hot pace. With a perfect record at Keeneland, success at this seven-furlong distance, and a reunion with Tyler Gaffalione, this filly could be something special and should be on every ticket.
With a Kiss brings a heavy-hitting pedigree into the mix, sired by 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner and produced by a Kentucky Oaks winner. With a Kiss is an interesting filly and comes into the Raven Run with just two races on her resume for trainer Pletcher. With a Kiss debuted at Aqueduct in October 2025 and was simply dominant, drawing clear to win by four lengths under Prat. With a Kiss continued to work at Belmont Park until the end of November and then did not record another published workout until mid-July. With a Kiss then recorded eight timed workouts at Belmont Park and Saratoga before returning to the races more than 10 months after her maiden win. In her Sept. 6 comeback, she posted a terrific 98 Equibase Speed Figure for her narrow victory in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance-optional claiming race at Saratoga with Velazquez aboard. This was impressive for any horse returning after that long of a layoff, let alone a young filly who had only made one previous start. With a Kiss’s connections clearly think highly of her to put her in this spot and she could be a big surprise on Saturday. In both of her wins, With a Kiss stalked off the pace and pounced on the final turn to take over the race, which is the most likely scenario in the Raven Run. Velazquez is a brilliant rider who was able to engineer an upset last year aboard Kappa Kappa at 27-1 odds and should always be held in high regard in graded stakes races at Keeneland. While a win could be a big ask, With a Kiss could be a filly to key underneath to create some lucrative tickets.
The rest of the field (with their best Equibase Speed Figure in similar races): Army’s Marauder (90), Mythical (93), Hen Party (104), Coco Connect (90), Yo Fancy (92), Percy’s Bar (96), A Fine Chardonnay (97), Movie Night (101), and Star Actress (97).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Conceit
Mashallah
With a Kiss
