Ten Memorable Belmont Stakes Upsets
The $400,000 Penn Mile Stakes drew an intriguing group of seven 3-year-olds for the classic turf-mile distance, including several established turf stakes winners, a runner making his first start on grass, and a colt returning to the turf after testing the Triple Crown trail.
#6 Honey Dutch is the 2-1 morning-line favorite for the Penn Mile Friday night at Hollywood Casino at Penn National Race Course. Still in search of his first stakes win, the Knicks Go colt has placed in five straight stakes races with three seconds and two third-place finishes in that span. He opened a three-length lead in the Grade 1 American Turf Stakes May 2 at Churchill Downs before fading late to finish third to rising star Stark Contrast. His tactical speed is a big advantage and if he runs that type of race at Penn National going a mile, he could be tough to beat.

My top choice in the race is #5 Immortalised (4-1) coming into this race off a hard-fought win in the Cutler Bay Stakes March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He’s won three straight races, showing tenacity in each victory, and is the fastest finisher in the field. That’s my main angle when betting grass races, I like to be riding with the horse with the best late kick. I trust Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez to give him a great ride.
I’ll fade 5-2 second betting choice #7 Alpyland. He’s a stakes winner and a quality 3-year-old, but he doesn’t have as much late kick as some of the others and I think there is a chance to get some value with others. I expect he might be overbet.
I’ll play #3 Classic Nofty (15-1) underneath coming off a terrific first try on grass on this course at Penn National. It was the best race of his career to date and trainer Phil Schoenthal and jockey Angel Cruz have a good thing going with a 39% win rate since the start of 2025. #4 Teddy’s Rocket looked like he needed a race last time out when he flattened out late in the Woodhaven Stakes at Aqueduct in his first start in 7 ½ months. He ran a close fourth in a Grade 1 at age 2 and showed legitimate finishing speed.
If you want to keep it simple (and take advantage of a better takeout rate), play Immortalised and Honey Dutch in a $10 or $15 exacta box. I’m hoping Classic Nofty might spice up the trifecta, so I’ll include that strategy as well.
Exacta Betting Strategy on a $30 Budget
$15 exacta box: 5,6 ($30)
What to say at the betting window: Penn National, Race 6, $15 exacta box: 5,6
Trifecta Betting Strategy on a $36 Budget
$3 trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 3,4 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Penn National, Race 6, $3 trifecta 5,6 with 5,6 with 3,4
$2 trifecta: 5,6 with 3,4,5,6 with 3,4,5,6 ($24)
What to say at the betting window: Penn National, Race 6, $2 trifecta 5,6 with 3,4,5,6 with 3,4,5,6