Welcome to Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we take a look each week at a recent winner on the Road to the Derby schedule of preps that offer qualifying points for the 1 ¼-mile classic race May 2, 2026, at Churchill Downs.

We take a closer look this week at Nearly, a 5 ¾-length victor of the $267,500 Holy Bull Stakes Jan. 31 at Gulfstream Park. Nearly banked 20 points for the win and rose to first on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, a spot vacated by sidelined champion Ted Noffey.

Racing Résumé: After an unplaced finish in October at Aqueduct in his career debut, Nearly has been unbeatable in three subsequent starts at Gulfstream Park. He swamped Florida-breds by 9 ¼ lengths Nov. 22 at six furlongs, rolled by five lengths Jan. 2 in a seven-furlong allowance-optional claiming race, and aced his first stakes test with a runaway Holy Bull score Jan. 31.

The Not This Time colt stalked a moderate pace and finished powerfully in his allowance win, completing the final eighth of a mile a strong :12.32. In the Holy Bull, Nearly pressed 3-2 favorite Cannoneer through a very fast pace — opening quarter-mile in :22.82 and half-mile in :45.96 — and surged clear of Cannoneer and runner-up Bravaro approaching the stretch on his way to another convincing win for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher.

“We thought it was a really strong performance,” Pletcher said. “They were going pretty quickly early on, but it seemed like he was in a good cruising speed.  … It was pretty much what we were hoping for.”

Probably due to the very fast early pace, Nearly did not finish with fast closing fractions in the Holy Bull according to the Equibase GPS chart with a final quarter-mile in :27.54.

Speed Figures: Nearly earned a 90 Equibase Speed Figure for the Holy Bull Stakes win and a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, indicating that the two speed-figure makers judge the win (and the racehorse) much differently. The 98 Beyer is a very strong number for a 3-year-old in January and represented a steady 82-97-98 progression in his three wins. His Equibase Speed Figures for the same three races are 86-92-90, so his Equibase figures are not as strong overall as many of his division peers while his Beyer Speed Figures are elite.

Running Style: Nearly has used his tactical speed effectively in three wins, stalking the pace in his first two victories before pressing the favorite in the Holy Bull and pulling away in the stretch. That running style is an asset on the Kentucky Derby trail as it allows 3-year-olds to use their speed to steer clear of trouble and it becomes even more important in a huge Derby field.

Pedigree Notes: Nearly is from the sixth crop of Not This Time, runner-up in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. By leading sire Giant’s Causeway, Not This Time has developed into a versatile, quality sire with 2022 champion 3-year-old male Epicenter and 2023 champion turf male Up to the Mark among his top runners.

Nearly was produced by Ib Prospecting, a two-time sprint winner and half-sister (same dam, different sire) to Frolic’s Revenge, a five-time stakes winner at a mile or longer. Nearly’s grandam (maternal grandmother), Stormy Frolic, was a four-time stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles.

Derby Potential: Nearly has shown speed and versatility in terms of running style; he’s in the hands of a Hall of Fame trainer-jockey combination (Todd Pletcher-John Velazquez); he’s posted very strong Beyer Speed Figures; and he handled his first two-turn test with aplomb. I would like to see him finish faster — regular readers know that is a key component for me in evaluating 3-year-olds — but Nearly looks like a serious talent. He will remain in Florida and target another race on the Gulfstream path to the Kentucky Derby, probably the Curlin Florida Derby March 28.

“[The Holy Bull] was his third race in a relatively short period, but we wanted to give him some two-turn experience and he handled that,” Pletcher said. “Now that he handled that, we’re probably in a position where we can give him a little extra time for the next one.”