The upcoming Thanksgiving weekend of racing at Churchill Downs is an oasis for racing fans thirsting for elite competition with the Breeders’ Cup World Championships fading from the rearview mirror. The Louisville track will host nine stakes from Thanksgiving (Nov. 27) through Sunday, Nov. 30, and the $600,000 Clark Stakes Presented by Norton Healthcare headlines Friday’s slate under the Twin Spires.
The 1 1/8-mile dirt race for 3-year-olds and older drew a deep and interesting field of nine, led by last year’s winner #6 Rattle N Roll (7-2 morning-line odds) and 2025 Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline victor #3 Hit Show (3-1). Hit Show defeated Rattle N Roll by a length and 2025 Preakness Stakes runner-up #4 Gosger (4-1) by a length and a quarter in the Grade 3 Hagyard Fayette Stakes at this distance Oct. 25 at Keeneland.
Gosger stepped up to face older horses in the Fayette and held his own. Fellow 3-year-olds #9 Magnitude (9-2), winner of the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes, and #5 Chunk of Gold (10-1), the West Virginia Derby winner, tackle older horses for the first time in the Clark.
I’m hoping the quality field and a disappointing recent outing inflate the price on #2 First Mission (5-1). The 5-year-old by Street Sense ran second in the 2023 Clark and owns a couple of graded stakes wins at this distance in the 2024 Essex Handicap and 2025 Oaklawn Handicap, both at Oaklawn Park. The race he ran in winning the Oaklawn Handicap by two lengths in April would very likely be enough to win here for trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flavien Prat, who are winning as a 36% clip together since the start of 2024 and 30% at Churchill.
First Mission tailed off after a strong spring, running second as the 2-5 favorite in the Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes in August before finishing a distant fourth to Nevada Beach in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes in September. But he’s run very well at Churchill Downs, has trained forwardly for this race after a brief freshening, and should get a good trip tucked in behind several entrants who prefer to race on or near the lead. I’ll play First Mission to win at 4-1 odds or higher and box him in an exacta with Rattle N Roll.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #2 First Mission ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $10 to win on #2
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$20 to win on #2 First Mission ($20)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $20 to win on #2
$5 exacta box: #2 First Mission, #6 Rattle N Roll ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $5 exacta box 2,6
