There’s a reason why #3 Tommy Jo (2-5) is an overwhelming favorite to win Friday’s $650,000 Darley Alcibiades Stakes on opening day of the Keeneland fall meet: she’s the fastest filly in the field.
Tommy Jo owns the two highest Brisnet Speed ratings and the two highest Beyer Speed Figures among the six entrants for this Grade 1 race for 2-year-old fillies. She earned her fast figures while posting two easy wins from two starts during the summer at Saratoga. First, she trounced a maiden special weight by 3 3/4 lengths over a next-out winner. She next crushed the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes competition by 6 1/2 lengths.
There’s no reason to think Tommy Jo will falter in the Alcibiades. One possible hurdle is the fact she’s tackling a two-turn race for the first time, but as a daughter of perennial leading sire Into Mischief out of the Pioneerof the Nile mare Mother Mother, Tommy Jo is bred to relish the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Alcibiades.
In short, we recommend bettors trust Tommy Jo to deliver her third win from as many starts. But since a win bet on Tommy Jo won’t pay much, we’ll have to turn to exotic wagers like the exacta (select the top two finishers in order) and the trifecta (select the top three finishers in order) to boost the prospective payoffs.
Which fillies should we use underneath Tommy Jo? Definitely #1 Percy’s Bar (3-1), our clear second choice. Percy’s Bar opened her career with back-to-back victories in Kentucky (including a five-length romp in the Debutante Stakes at Churchill Downs), before taking her game on the road to Saratoga for the Spinaway. Percy’s Bar proved no match for Tommy Jo, but she was clearly better than the rest, finishing second while pulling 4 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher.
For third place, mix in #2 Go to Girl (20-1) and #4 The Grumpy Rabbit (12-1), a pair of fillies trained by Kenny McPeek. Both exit maiden special weight victories racing one mile at Ellis Park, and they have Eclipse Award-winning jockeys Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat, respectively, named to ride.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 exacta: 3 with 1
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, 9th race, $10 exacta 3 with 1
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$20 exacta: 3 with 1
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, 9th race, $20 exacta 3 with 1
$5 trifecta: 3 with 1 with 4,5 (total cost: $10)
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, 9th race, $5 trifecta 3 with 1 with 4,5
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
