One of the summer’s biggest races is set for Saturday under the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs, where a high-quality field will compete in the Stephen Foster Stakes for a purse of $1 million and a guaranteed spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Over the past 30 years, the 1 1/8-mile Stephen Foster has been a crucial race in determining the top contenders for the 1 ¼-mile, $7 million Longines Classic, which this year will be held Nov. 1 at Del Mar. Saturday’s Stephen Foster winner will receive an automatic berth to the Classic with entry fees waived plus a travel stipend.  

A star-studded lineup is on hand for the 2025 Stephen Foster Stakes, which is designated a Grade 1 event, the highest level in the sport. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner (Sierra Leone) and Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve winner (Mystik Dan) are both entered, as is this spring’s winner of the Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline, Hit Show. The Stephen Foster has a scheduled post time of 6:03 p.m. ET and will be televised by FanDuel TV.

Get information on all of the contenders plus some betting insights in ABR’s Cheat Sheet:

Eclipse Sportswire

1. First Mission

Jockey: Luis Saez

Trainer: Brad Cox

Owner: Godolphin

Career record: 12 starts – 6 wins – 2 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $2,060,170

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 115

Pedigree: Street Sense – Elude, by Medaglia d’Oro

Age: 5

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Press the pace/stalker

Analysis: First Mission has assembled a very good career to date having finished in the top three in nine of 12 races. He’s still in search of his first Grade 1 victory, however, and he’s disappointed in his three prior starts at that level. One of those was last year’s Stephen Foster, in which he set the early pace but then tired to finish fourth as the 0.93-1 post-time favorite. This year, the 5-year-old finished a close third in a 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 stakes race at Oaklawn Park and then won the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap by two lengths, earning a 115 Equibase Speed Figure that tied his career best. This horse has had prior success at Churchill Downs and appears to be in the best form of his career. What’s more, he’s shown the ability to run well while being forwardly placed, and that style should benefit him in a field that lacks a true speed horse. Look for jockey Luis Saez, who won last year’s Stephen Foster, to be aggressive with First Mission and possibly put him on the early lead in an attempt to “wire the field,” i.e., lead from start to finish.

Eclipse Sportswire

2. Mindframe

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Owners: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable

Career record: 6 starts – 4 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $1,292,160

Pedigree: Constitution – Walk of Stars, by Street Sense

Age: 4

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Stalker

Analysis: This talented colt is an upset candidate in the Stephen Foster who could go off at an attractive post-time price due to the presence of bigger-name horses, such as Sierra Leone and Mystik Dan. He’s only made six starts in his career, never finishing worse than second, and still has the potential to improve. Mindframe is 2-for-2 so far in 2025, easily winning a one-mile Grade 2 stakes at Gulfstream Park and then charging through the stretch to win the seven-furlong, Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes Presented by Ford May 3 where he prevailed by a neck over three other horses that all reached the finish line together. Last year, Mindframe nearly won the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets held at 1 ¼ miles, and after two races around one turn this year he should be ready to stretch out in distance to the Stephen Foster’s 1 1/8 miles. Leading national jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has been aboard this colt for all six of his career starts, and Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher picked up his first win in this race last year. Ortiz should have his mount in a forward position and the pair might even take command out of the gate, as Mindframe won a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Churchill Downs last year by leading from start to finish. All in all, Mindframe appears set for a career-best effort Saturday.

Eclipse Sportswire

3.Skippylongstocking

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.

Owner: Daniel Alonso

Career record: 32 starts – 11 wins – 3 seconds – 7 thirds

Career earnings: $3,661,610

Pedigree: Exaggerator – Twinkling, by War Chant

Age: 6

Color: Bay

Running style: Press the pace/stalker

Analysis: In an era when many top racehorses retire at age 3 or 4 and head off to the breeding shed, this 6-year-old is a throwback. Since debuting at age 2 in 2021, Skippylongstocking has made 32 starts and never missed significant time away from the track. He can be counted on to give a good, honest effort nearly every time, although his best races have been at the Grade 2 and Grade  3 level. The Exaggerator horse ships in to Churchill Downs off of one of his top efforts, a three-quarter length win in the 1 ¼ mile, Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes May 26 at Santa Anita Park, which was his second win in four starts so far this year. He finished a solid third in last year’s Stephen Foster and will be reunited with his jockey in that race, Jose Ortiz, on Saturday. Overall, Skippylongstocking’s best Equibase Speed Figures are a few points lower than those earned by several of his Stephen Foster opponents, but he is worthy of using in exacta and trifecta bets at what should be appealing post-time odds.

Eclipse Sportswire

4. Sierra Leone

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Trainer: Chad Brown

Owners: Peter Brant, Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg Ltd., and Brook Smith

Career record: 10 starts – 4 wins – 3 seconds – 3 thirds

Career earnings: $6,058,000

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon

Age: 4

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Closer

Analysis: Sierra Leone is somewhat of a question mark in Saturday’s Stephen Foster as he gets ready for his second start at age 4. He could go off as the post-time favorite despite his disappointing return to the track March 22 in the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 2 New Orleans Classic Stakes Presented by Relyne GI by Hagyard at Fair Grounds, where he made a late move but still finished third by 4 ½ lengths as the heavy 3-10 favorite. That was Sierra Leone’s first start since easily his career-best race, a 1 ½-length win in last fall’s Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic held at 1 ¼ miles, and while he was indeed impressive at Del Mar and earned a 116 Equibase Speed Figure, he also benefited from a very fast early pace which helped to set up his rally. This year’s Stephen Foster field lacks any one-dimensional speed horses, which means that the early pace could be moderate and thus make it tougher for Sierra Leone to muster his customary closing kick. He is eligible to improve in his second start this year, but Sierra Leone will need to do that to defeat this accomplished field – and as mentioned above, he could be an underlay come post time. 

New To Horse Racing? Let Us Explain...

Underlay vs. overlay in odds when betting: A horse with underlaid odds means that his/her odds to win in the parimutuel betting pool (which collects all bets made and distributes the money to winners) are lower than what you, the bettor, believe is his/her actual chance to win the race compared with the other horses in the field. So, for example, if Sierra Leone carries odds of 1-1 (called “even money”) in the Foster, that would equate to him having a 50% chance of winning the race. If you, the bettor, believe his chance of winning is more than 50%, he is therefore an underlay at 1-1 odds (his odds are laid under his perceived chance to win) and unworthy of placing a bet on.

For a horse with overlaid odds, the reverse is true: his/her odds in the parimutuel pool are higher than what you, the bettor, estimate his win chances at, making him/her the one to bet on. Using this example again, if Sierra Leone has parimutuel odds of 4-1 in the Foster, that equates to a 20% chance of winning. If you think he has a 50% chance of winning (or even 30% or 40%) and the other bettors in the pool give you odds of 20% - take them!

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5. Mystik Dan

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Owners: 4 G Racing, Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby III, and Valley View Farm

Career record: 13 starts – 4 wins – 3 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $4,417,750

Pedigree: Goldencents – Ma’am, by Colonel John

Age: 4

Color: Bay

Running style: Stalker

Analysis: After a pair of no-show races last winter, Mystik Dan has found the level of ability he showed a little more than a year ago when he posted an upset win in the 1 ¼-mile, Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve at Churchill Downs. First, he came back from a break of more than three months in early May and nearly won a 1 1/16-mile stakes race at Oaklawn Park, losing by a nose, and he then returned to his home track in Louisville and won the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 3 Blame Stakes by 1 ¼ lengths on May 31. Mystik Dan’s regular jockey, Brian Hernandez Jr., used a strategy similar to the one he employed in the Kentucky Derby to guide Mystik Dan in the Blame Stakes – save ground along the inside, wait for space to open up entering the stretch, and then make a decisive bid and take command. Look for horse and rider to try the same approach again Saturday on a track where Mystik Dan is 3-for-4 lifetime. Although he won the Kentucky Derby at a mile and a quarter, this colt appears to be best-suited to races at 1 1/8 miles or shorter, which makes him a leading win candidate in the Stephen Foster and a must-use in exacta and trifecta bets.

Eclipse Sportswire

6. Hit Show

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Trainer: Brad Cox

Owner: Wathnan Racing

Career record: 18 starts – 9 wins – 1 second – 1 third

Career earnings: $8,406,928

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress, by Tapit

Age: 5

Color: Gray or roan

Running style: Closer

Analysis: This late-running veteran picked the right race to put forth a career-best effort back in March, rallying from off of the pace to win the $12 million Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline by a half-length. That 1 ¼-mile race was held halfway across the world at Meydan Racecourse in the United Arab Emirates, and it featured an international field headlined by Japanese star Forever Young (who finished third) and a few other solid but unspectacular U.S. horses, including runner-up Mixto. Hit Show comes back to the U.S. in a race that’s an eighth of a mile shorter and with a purse $11 million dollars lower, but he’ll face arguably just as tough of a field. Overall, he’s had a very good career to date and especially since last August, a stretch when he’s won five of seven starts including the 2024 Lukas Classic Stakes held at 1 1/8 miles on Churchill’s track. U.S. horses coming back from trips to Dubai often underperform in their first race back, so that’s a concern, and Hit Show’s best Equibase Speed Figures are a notch below those of Sierra Leone, Mystik Dan, and stablemate First Mission. Still, he’s a threat to win the Stephen Foster under jockey Florent Geroux, who was aboard in both last year’s Lukas Classic and the Dubai World Cup. Like Sierra Leone, he’ll need a fast pace to help set up his come-from-behind charge, and he may not get it Saturday.

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7. Ashcroft

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Trainer: Bas Nicholl

Owner: Debra Barkley

Career record: 12 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $109,923

Pedigree: Munnings – Sky Willow, by Empire Maker

Age: 5

Color: Chestnut

Running style: Stalker/closer

Analysis: Ashcroft is the outsider in this year’s Stephen Foster field having finished fifth or worse in all three of his previous stakes appearances. However, he figures to receive some extra attention due to the fact that he will be making his first start for trainer Bas Nicholl after his prior trainer, Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, announced his retirement on June 22 due to health concerns. Lukas, 89, took over training duties for Ashcroft for his most recent start on May 3, when he finished fifth of 12 runners in the one-mile Knicks Go Overnight Stakes Presented by L&N Federal Credit Union on a sloppy track at Churchill. The Munnings horse was a 32.82-1 longshot on that day but probably won’t go off in that price range Saturday due to the Foster’s smaller field and possibly some support at the betting windows from Lukas’ legion of fans. Now, Lukas’ longtime assistant Nicholl takes over training responsibilities. Since Ashcroft’s win chances are miniscule, look for jockey Julien Leparoux, who rode the horse to a fifth-place finish two starts back in the seven-furlong Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland, to position him near the back of the field with the goal of picking off some tired runners in the stretch and hopefully filling out the superfecta.

New To Horse Racing? Let Us Explain...

A superfecta or trifecta filler: We're suggesting that you might want to add the horse to your bet if you’re playing a superfecta (picking the first four finishers) or a trifecta (first three finishers), and using this horse in the third and fourth slot but not to win or finish second.