
Talented Trio Brings California Vibe to Belmont Stakes
Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
Six Beginner Betting Tools
Belmont Stakes Day at Saratoga is here and the program is packed with high-stakes races in one of the most fun and consequential race cards of the year. The headline events will be the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets and the $1 million Hill ‘N’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap, and for my selections in those races you can visit ABR’s staff Belmont Stakes trifecta picks article and ABR’s 2025 Met Mile at a Glance article. For this column, let’s focus on a couple of the other most interesting betting races on Saratoga’s undercard where you might be able to find solid winners, exactas, and trifectas – The Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes and the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun. If we win some cash earlier in the day, we can build enough of a bankroll to bet big in the Belmont Stakes. Enjoy a great Belmont Stakes Day of racing and wagering at Saratoga and best of luck!
Saratoga Race Course, Race 9, $500,000 Jaipur Stakes, post time 4:08 p.m. ET
The Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes has drawn a field of 10 turf sprinters set to dash 5 ½ furlongs for a purse of $500,000 and there is no shortage of contenders in the race. The favorite is #2 Think Big, who has meteorically risen up the turf sprinter ranks this spring with back-to-back wins in Keeneland’s Grade 2 Valvoline Global Shakertown Stakes and Churchill Downs’ Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Presented by Accenture to raise his lifetime record to 4-for-4 in turf sprints. There are no knocks on him except that his 6-5 morning-line odds are too low to bet to win in such a contentious race, so we’ll use him in all exactas and trifectas. The horse to bet to win in the Jaipur is #9 Ag Bullet, who exits a toss-out loss in Churchill’s Grade 3 Unbridled Sidney Stakes Presented by Cygames for fillies and mares where she was loaded but got absolutely buried due to a brutally bad trip. This spot will be no easy task for a mare facing the boys, but she’s done well against the opposite sex in the past when she almost won last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint until settling for third by a neck. That race was at five furlongs, and she was flying at the finish and would have won it if it were at the 5 ½-furlong distance of this race. Anyway, she probably needed a race last time in her return in the Unbridled Sidney from her five-month seasonal layoff and is likely to be ready to roll in her second outing if given a decent trip. The other principal contender in the field is #10 Coppola, a 10-time winner who looms the speed of the race from the outside, which is a solid tactical advantage in Spa turf sprints. Coppola has been losing to Think Big in races with more contention for the early lead but should get to the front rather easily in this spot and will be dangerous from there, at least good enough to use in exactas and trifectas.
The Play: Bet on #9 Ag Bullet (7-2) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes with #2 Think Big (6-5) and #10 Coppola (12-1).
Saratoga Race Course, Race 11, $500,000 Woody Stephens Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun, post time 5:28 p.m. ET
The Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes has assembled an 10-horse field of 3-year-olds set to race seven furlongs (#7 Colloquial was withdrawn). Some might look at this field as a consolation prize for horses that raced on the Triple Crown trail and failed to make an impact in the series, but really it is a race that has drawn an high-quality field of horses that can help decide whether their futures will be going long, going short, or racing at middle distances. This fascinating lineup is led by #5 Citizen Bull, last year’s champion 2-year-old and FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winner who has seen his bandwagon clear out in a hurry this year with losses in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby and the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. There’s no shame in coming up short in races like that, however, and this cutback in distance to seven furlongs probably is just what the doctor ordered for this obviously talented Bob Baffert trainee. The other high-profile horse in this race who may indeed benefit from a cutback in distance is #10 Chancer McPatrick, who did not persist on the Triple Crown trail following a sixth-place finish in the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Back when Chancer McPatrick concentrated on shorter distances last year, he excelled with a middle-distance Grade 1 win in the Champagne Stakes and with two wins right here at Saratoga including a six-furlong maiden win and a victory in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes. He’ll be ready for his best in this spot or else he wouldn’t have been pointed here for trainer Chad Brown. There are plenty of potential up-and-comers who you could also hang your hat on in this race, but #11 Gate to Wire trained by Todd Pletcher could prove to be the best of them all. Gate to Wire won Gulfstream Park’s Swale Stakes at this seven-furlong distance by five lengths over runner-up #4 Macho Music, who has since flattered him by coming back to win last month’s Grade 2 Pat Day Mile Stakes Presented by SAP.
The Play: Bet on #5 Citizen Bull (5-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #10 Chancer McPatrick (4-1) and #11 Gate to Wire (12-1)