Welcome to 2025 Triple Crown Prospect Profiles, where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the U.S. Classics trail, with the concentration this week on the Belmont Stakes June 7 at Saratoga Race Course.

The field for the 1 1/4-mile race is beginning to come into focus and one of the new shooters who did not compete in either of the first two Triple Crown races will be this week’s subject. Let’s take a closer look at Hill Road, a three-quarter-length winner of the $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes on May 10 at Belmont at the Big A.

Racing Résumé: Hill Road began his career in Ireland with trainer Adrian Murray and won one of two starts on grass before shipping to the U.S., where he outran his 61.10-1 odds in a third-place finish in the 2024 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA.

Hill Road was transferred to the barn of Chad Brown, a five-time winner of the Eclipse Award as outstanding trainer, for his 3-year-old season. He made his season debut in the $350,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby March 8 and finished a distant third, beaten by 6 ¼ lengths when he probably needed a race to shake off the rust. Hill Road was much better in his second race of the year, overcoming a stumble at the start and closing from eighth in the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan Stakes May 10 to win by three-quarters of a length. He blazed the final three-eighths of a mile in :36.64 and the final eighth of a mile in :12.27 according to Equibase’s GPS chart.

Hill Road is a colt many had high hopes for entering the year and he really showed signs of living up to that promise in the Peter Pan. He earned his shot in the Belmont Stakes with that effort.

Speed Figures: Hill Road recorded a career-best 94 Beyer Speed Figure for the Peter Pan win and a new career-top 99 Equibase Speed Figure. He will need to improve to win the Belmont Stakes but the Beyer figure is promising as he could be a win candidate with a 5-6 point improvement in his third start after a four-month layoff.  

Running Style: My colleague Noel Michaels wrote an eye-opening feature about which running styles have fared best at 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga — along with some data on post positions at that distance — and it’s pretty clear deep closers like Hill Road are at a disadvantage at the distance. Likewise, Michaels’ past previews of Saratoga race meets identified closers rallying from four or more lengths back as at a disadvantage in all dirt races around two turns at Saratoga. Closers also are dependent upon other horses to ensure an honest pace and must also navigate traffic when rallying, so that style introduces several variables that can impact the outcome. With very little pace expected in the Belmont Stakes plus trends indicating a track very likely to be unkind to closers, Hill Road’s running style could negatively impact his chances.

Pedigree Notes: Hill Road is by Quality Road, by Elusive Quality. Quality Road was a four-time Grade 1 winner, with three of those top-level wins coming at 1 1/8 miles. Many of his best runners have shared his combination of speed and stamina, including 2023 Preakness winner National Treasure, 2017 Kentucky Oaks winner Abel Tasman, and champion 2-year-olds Corniche and Caledonia Road.

Exotic Notion, by Lemon Drop Kid, is the dam (mother) of Hill Road. Exotic Notion was a stakes-placed winner in Argentina with victories at distances from seven-eighths of a mile to 1 ¼ miles.

Belmont Potential: I’m excited to see how Hill Road progresses under the care of Chad Brown, one of the top trainers in the sport, over the next six months and into next year should he race as a 4-year-old. He appears to be a colt with a bright future. His next start, however, will be his toughest challenge to date facing this year’s Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve winner Sovereignty among a talented group of Belmont Stakes contenders.

Hill Road should have no issue stretching out to 1 ¼ miles based on his pedigree and how well he finished his final three-eighths of a mile in the Peter Pan. He would need to improve to be a win contender for the Belmont Stakes and he must overcome a track trend at the distance that has been unfavorable to closers since 2000. I view Hill Road as a strong candidate for a top-three finish but a visit to the winner’s circle would be a mild surprise.