For the second straight year, the Belmont Stakes will be run at Saratoga Race Course and at the shortened distance of 1 ¼ miles. Horseplayers that follow track trends will have to adjust their handicapping accordingly because Belmont Stakes trends from past editions at Belmont Park and at the race’s traditional 1 ½-mile distance will be irrelevant for this year’s race.

Let’s take a look at what running styles and post positions have the most (and least) success at Saratoga at the distance of 1 ¼ miles. If you know which horses have the advantage, you may have the inside track to picking the winner and cashing your bets on the 2025 Belmont Stakes June 7 at Saratoga.

The distance of 1 ¼ miles is not a frequently used distance at Saratoga, with the distance normally being used for the Travers Stakes and only a handful of other races, plus the running of last year’s Belmont Stakes. We’ll go all the way back from the present to the year 2000 to get a sample size big enough to draw some conclusions.

Post positions make a big difference for Saratoga speed horses. (Eclipse Sportswire)

There have been a total of 34 dirt races run at 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga since 2000. The main track trend that jumps out at you the most is that closers are an awful bet at 1 ¼ miles on the main track at Saratoga. Horses coming from four or more lengths off the pace won a total of only four of the 34 races at the distance since 2000 to account for wins in only 11.8% of the races. The best running style has been stalkers, as defined by horses racing between one and four lengths off the pace. Stalkers won 50% of the races (17 wins). Speed horses racing on or close to the pace within a length of the lead won 38.2% of the races (13 wins).

For the speed horses, success has gone hand in hand with post positions because almost all of the speed horses that have won at 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga the last 25 years have come from post positions 1-3. Speed horses from the inside posts have won 13 times at the distance, and 10 of those came from posts 1-3. So, if you want to bet a speed horse it must draw an inside post to have its best chance.

Looking at the overall post position stats, 18 of the 34 races have been won by horses breaking from the three inside posts to account for 52.9% of the races. Winners from posts 1-3 have far outpaced winners from the middle posts 4-6 (11 wins, 32.3% of the races) and outside posts 7+ (five wins, 14.7% of the races). However, post position doesn’t seem to have a great impact on success for stalkers and closers, it mainly seems to make a difference with speed horses.

We do have one apples-to-apples comparison to look at for the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga from last year’s race. Dornoch won the 2024 Belmont Stakes from post six in a 10-horse field after stalking the pace up close from 1 ½ lengths off the early leader Seize the Grey, who faded to finish seventh. Every horse that finished in the superfecta broke from the outside half of the field.